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Fabian Schmidt

@fabschmidt.bsky.social
1.2K followers 776 following 541 posts

Political economist // Industrial policy for future // Brussels // Rail ultra

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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Could be worse if they applied Belgian road light standards
Fully lit Belgian autobahn
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Nope
Fuck Nuance by Kieran Healy
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
They tried their best to give it the real American vibe
About 20 minutes later, roughly eight police officers in plain clothes surrounded us and pulled us out of the event. None of them wore visible identification, only flashing a badge for a short enough time to not register. When we first asked who they were, they physically pushed us, said “we are police” and to come with them immediately.
For the next 15 minutes or so, the officers confiscated our IDs and questioned us. They asked whether The European Correspondent had a political leaning, whether we had an agenda, and how we had got into the event (that the American embassy invited us to).
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Sickos meme
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
So it is entirely possible for China to trace the complete downstream value chain of its minerals for geopolitical purposes but it is too much to ask from European companies to trace their supply chains for human rights and sustainability reasons? giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
So what to do, apart from not starting from here? Even apparent solutions like precautionary stockpiling of critical minerals have problems. China’s rare earths export controls regime requires end-user licences, enabling Beijing to withhold sales from any buyer it suspects of insulating itself against coercion. China really has thought this through very well.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
‘Fomo is a poor motivation for good policy. What matters in the end is not “competitiveness” but productivity growth’ giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
There is one newish policy tool that does deserve greater space in the European toolbox: using public procurement to create markets, as Luc Frieden, prime minister of Luxembourg, rightly argued in a speech last week. The public sector makes up a sizeable chunk of demand in Europe’s economies. On top comes private activity that enjoys public subsidies. Both are tools that should be used much more consciously to reserve predictable markets for made-in-Europe digital tech. Military and sensitive public data processing and research and development are obvious places to start — for security reasons, but also to let companies invest in the expectation that they will be able to sell.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
European automobile production sites are increasingly used to build Chinese cars www.ft.com/content/5529...
One solution for Europe’s underutilised factories is to seek Chinese partners to fill spare capacity at home. Stellantis has said it intends to make Dongfeng’s high-end EVs at a plant in Rennes, north-west France, that is currently operating at about half its capacity, while Opel, another Stellantis brand, plans to produce an electric SUV in Spain using Chinese partner Leapmotor’s motor and battery technology.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Quite the contrast
Responding to the court ruling, CHP Deputy Chairman Gokan Zeybek said "all decisions taken by courts acting on instructions [from the government] are null and void as far as we are concerned.

"Now we are going to Ankara. We are going to stand up for our headquarters, the headquarters entrusted to us by the nation, entrusted to us by the organisation," he said, according to Medyascope.

Kilicdaroglu, however, indicated his willingness to take up his former role again.

"May this decision be beneficial to Turkey and CHP," he told TGRT news.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Und wie die Faschisten den Fordismus liebten
Buch: Forging Global Fordism: Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and the Contest over the Industrial Order
Stefan J. Link
A new global history of Fordism from the Great Depression to the postwar era
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Always hurts to see the snow statistics these years climate.copernicus.eu/ten-charts-d...
Peak 2025 snow cover was the third lowest in the 42-year record
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
The stats about ‘the apps’ are still pretty striking though
Fertility falling of a cliff, across countries, after smartphones take off
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Ok, having children depends on people having a partner and that rate is declining particularly strongly for people without a degree. Not what Idiocracy predicted
The decline of long-term relationships has been steepest among people without a degree
% of 25- to 34-year-olds in couples, by education
UK
US
Degree orhigher
Degree orhigher
Belowdegree
Belowdegree
Source: FT analysis of UK Household Longitudinal Study, UK Family Resources Survey and US Current Population Survey
FT graphic: John Burn-Murdoch / @jburnmurdoch
©FT
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Wow, the birth rate of middle-income countries like Mexico, Brazil, Iran or Tunisia is falling below that of high-income countries like the US
Mexico‘s birth rate falling under the US one
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Two crucial differences between China shocks #1 and #2: - Export prices falling instead of rising - Imports flatlining instead of rising www.ft.com/content/4687...
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
China is not only exporting to Europe but also investing in production capacities on the continent www.ft.com/content/873a...
FT graph showing rising Chinese FDI in European countries, especially Hungary, Serbia, Spain
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
China’s overinvestment is cascading from one sector to the next, leading its economy to overtake Germany in one technology after another Will involution first bring down China’s economy or Germany’s? dezernatzukunft.org/wie-china-ma...
Graphs for different products from cables to wind turbines
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
This is clearly wrong. There remains the tried and tested option of tapping external demand. This was limited by the sheer size of China’s excess capacities but political counter measures and the global demand boost caused by the Iran war might go some way to resolving this.
Involution is just one of the ways in which this “waste” can be manifested. And if the problem is systemic, rather than specific to a few isolated and idiosyncratic sectors, there are only two ways to resolve overcapacity at the systemic level:

Increase demand faster than growth in industrial capacity. This requires boosting household consumption, which in turn requires implicit or explicit income and wealth transfers—either from the central and local governments, or from businesses and manufacturers—to the household sector. But this has proven difficult. 
Cut capacity to bring it line with domestic demand. In the short term this means closing factories, laying off workers, and accepting slower growth. But this clashes with Beijing’s determination to maintain employment stability and meet GDP growth targets.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
The systemic problem of macroeconomic imbalances remained
Cutting capacity in selected areas will almost certainly reduce involution in those sectors, but it doesn’t address the original problem created by the sharp fall in property investment. If China cuts investment in the worst-hit areas, total investment growth in China will decline, and this will feed directly into a decline in GDP growth and a rise in unemployment.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
lpeproject.org/blog/muskism...
Post-Fordism was in crisis, but what would take its place? A range of competing visions and frameworks have been proposed. We have heard of state capitalism, disaster capitalism, platform capitalism, chokepoint capitalism, vulture capitalism, spiderweb capitalism, archipelago capitalism, asset manager capitalism, surveillance capitalism, and even crack-up capitalism. Theorists have suggested that we live in an age of neofeudalism, techno-feudalism, techno-libertarianism, techno-authoritarianism, techno-populism, techno-fascism, end times fascism, neofascism, neoliberal fascism, post-neoliberalism, paleo-populism, neopatrimonialism, hyperpolitics, and geoeconomics.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Germany …? 🔎 ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
3. Foreign carmakers turn to Chinese technology to remain relevant 😶‍🌫️ www.ft.com/content/b17b...
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
2. CATL claims 6-minute charge and 1,500km range for new electric vehicle batteries 💥 www.ft.com/content/1773...
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
FT triptych on the strategic circus of the global non-Chinese car industry 1. Global carmakers retreat en masse from electric vehicle plans 😤 www.ft.com/content/1198...
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Either we define democratically the goals of industrial policy and reorienting our productive infrastructure or other, non-democratic, profit-driven forces will decide for us.
There is a social value to repurposing our existing infrastructure towards new aims. In every community there should be hopes of engineers who can convert infrastructure to suit the changing needs of those communities. There are all kinds of things that people need or that could replace imports or that could be used for the environment. Every municipality has projects that they want to run that are sitting on their shelf. We need to be asking ourselves whether the facilities can be adjusted and people trained to support changing needs. 

If we don’t seriously take on such questions, restructuring will continue to take place in an undemocratic, unplanned way geared toward profit maximization.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Bei den einen gehts schneller, bei den anderen langsamer. Schnelle Annahme auf Konsumentenseite heißt nicht unbedingt, dass ein Land auch ein gro Produzent ist. Aber umgekehrt könnte es schwierig werden.
Graph showing EV uptake has grown significantly between 2018 and 2025, in particular in Asian countries
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Pretty visualisation tool for mobility shares - choose your city/country: vis.csh.ac.at/citiesmoving/ @olivier-rbxl.bsky.social
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Machinery already in deficit since 2015 apparently. The writing has been on the wall for quite a while. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Graph
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
This is how the separation of powers works in Brussels: Just build two highways through the European Quarter right between Commission, Council and Parliament.
Rue de la Loi separating Council and Commission.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
And if the issue does come up, if there’s one thing officials at the European Commission are really good at — maybe better than anyone else on earth — it’s bureaucratic delay and obfuscation. Maybe at some point big, strong European men with tears in their eyes will meet with Trump and say, “Sir, we have a temporary hangup over clause #14159 of the 1986 Single European Act. But we’ll get it cleared up any day now.”
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Well, Europe is following the US loser path and the new German government seems very keen on keeping it like that. www.ft.com/content/f867...
China paces ahead in electrification, while Europe and the US flatline
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
You mean FT got sth wrong here?
The South Korean supplier to General Motors and Tesla on Monday estimated its operating profit for April to June to be Won492bn ($360mn), up 152 per cent from year earlier.

Excluding the so-called advanced manufacturing production credit, second-quarter operating profit would be just Won1.4bn, LGES estimated
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
German economic elites aligned quickly with the Nazi regime as shown by party membership: Between 1933 and 1938, 37% of CEOs and board members of large corporations became members of the NSDAP. That is *three times* as much as the population average.
Photo of relevant page from Thamer: ‚Zweite Karrieren‘
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
Great dataset showing international variety in EV expansion but also, and more importantly, its relative stagnation in most countries recently
Sweden and Switzerland: Share of EVs flattens out in both countries, hybrids still enjoy dynamic growth in Switzerland
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Great point here by Mark Schwartz on state capacity: it is not some abstract autonomous force from above but the networked state linked closely and ‘productively’ with the private sector.
I actually don’t like the phrase “state capacity,” even though I use it all the time, because it’s really the fusion of public and private power. That’s what we see creating the capacity to push through the funding and regulatory space, the changes in property rights that make it possible to have growth. All of that requires some degree of conscious, stable policymaking on the part of state actors, which means they need to be talking to people who are actually in the industry.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
“One issue is that cars foul the air regardless of the fuel they use.”
“An electric car doesn’t produce any nitrogen oxide pollution, but that doesn’t mean that an electric car is not producing particles,” said Tobias Wolf, the city’s chief engineer of air quality. “Our true problems are PM 10 and PM 2.5,” he said, referring to fine particulate matter that can settle deep within the lungs and even pass into the bloodstream.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Redirect EU FDI from the US to Canada and we’re good. CA natural resource clusters + EU net zero industry clusters = 🤌🤌🤌
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
The EU and Canada have more in common than you think
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Butterfly meme: German government seeing US top academics "Is this infrastructure?"
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
In the US, foreigners with visa and all are thrown into the Ice prison camp system and kept for weeks. Here one Canadian account, below one German. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
It was surreal listening to my friends recount everything they had done to get me out: working with lawyers, reaching out to the media, making endless calls to detention centers, desperately trying to get through to Ice or anyone who could help. They said the entire system felt rigged, designed to make it nearly impossible for anyone to get out.

The reality became clear: Ice detention isn’t just a bureaucratic nightmare. It’s a business. These facilities are privately owned and run for profit.

Companies like CoreCivic and GEO Group receive government funding based on the number of people they detain, which is why they lobby for stricter immigration policies. It’s a lucrative business: CoreCivic made over $560m from Ice contracts in a single year. In 2024, GEO Group made more than $763m from Ice contracts.

The more detainees, the more money they make. It stands to reason that these companies have no incentive to release people quickly. What I had experienced was finally starting to make sense.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Same square - once in times of acute climate crisis, once during the 19th century
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
No European suppliers, no F-35
Illustration showing different parts of the F-35B variant coming from European suppliers
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
More like this
Söder
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Dazu auch richtungsweisend
Buch: Die Ökonomie des Alltagslebens. Für eine neue Infrastrukturpolitik
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Nicht so gut. (Quelle: www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...) Vor allem in Kombination hiermit: www.tagesschau.de/inland/regio...
Graph

So ist die Zahl der Sozialwohnungen seit 2017 gesunken

Über 200.000 Sozialwohnungen sind bundesweit verschwunden, nur im Osten gab es neue.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 18/01/2025
Germany‘s manufacturing crisis as clear as it can get: Industrial production and capacity use approaching pandemic nadir levels www.ft.com/content/be14...
FT graph showing industrial production and manufacturing capacity use over time.
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
Looks like a shift in the German growth model could finally be underway
2014: top 5 DAX firms are Bayer, Mercedes-Benz, Siemens, BASF, Allianz2024: top 5 DAX firms are SAP, Allianz, Airbus, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom (with Munich Re a close 6th)
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 15/11/2023
Ein Bild, das alles aussagt über diese Koalition
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 22/10/2023
A conservative, i.e. stratified welfare state like the German one has the strategic purpose to break up the working class. (Schwartz, 2018, States vs Markets, p. 96)
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Fabian Schmidt @fabschmidt.bsky.social · 18/10/2023
Brussels-based political economy folks, join our new reading group!
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