iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 14h

Best to proceed with caution of course, but I can't say I've seen numbers like this ... ever. Also, this may be informative for those who keep telling us that moving to the center to get Republican votes never works. Not that I love the triangulation, but sometimes it's what you have to do.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It is wild that while one could have objectively looked at this stuff (especially early on) and been like "well, it's ugly as hell but sort of the war you'd expect with a guerrilla group on their home turf" Israeli leaders never miss an opportunity to tell us nope, they're actually ethnic cleansing.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Inject it into my veins, but cautiously.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Two things here seem really bad: 1. It's going to be really hard to prevent power lines and roads from being built inappropriately in wild/historic areas. 2. Not being able to discriminate against fossil fuel projects in the future seems... really bad? All told, I'd say scrap this until 2027.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I was disappointed to not get a straight answer. I would expect everyone involved in this conversation to be interested in the truth. The stakes are high.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

There's a lot of noise in this data, but it seems like there's enough signal here to hypothesize that mRNA vaccines also contributed to reducing premature deaths from post-acute sequelae in the vaccinated cohort?

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This is going to be like Trump II in the US, i.e. a disaster at every level for Brazil.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

If he decides he wants to, Don Jr will dogwalk JD and Little Marco in the 2028 Republican presidential primary on name recognition alone. The Republican base is profoundly stupid. It won't even be close.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

These guys are so steeped in Russian propaganda, they believe all sorts of things that are... just not true.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

If the next president is a serious person, the entire White House will need to be gutted and rebuilt to ensure security.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I mean, how hard is it for my savings account to pay me 4% but for my mortgage to be 2.5%? Bidenomics should have been for the people, not the corporations! /s

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Another good lesson in ... just because someone says what you're really thinking doesn't mean (a) they're a good person, (b) they have your interests at heart, or (c) they should be elected to higher office.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This talking point is hilarious because objectively the Iran War has *significantly* worsened many aspects of our national security without improving *any*.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Ah yes, the biggest problem with passing bills with a house majority, 51 senators, and a Republican president will be Schumer and Jeffries. We totally understand how government works!

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

It will be a mystery to historians forever that Donald Trump, obsessed with popularity and legacy, with absolute control of his party, chose to be the president for the 27% of the population instead of just doing popular things that people would like. The bar was really low!

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I love that we're already in leftist civics cluelesness terrain and we haven't even won the election. Aaron here has the patience of a saint, and we're all going to need that in 2027-2028.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Chat: misleads you You: wtf Chat: you've discovered the hard truth

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Oh god, I had a parent like that. And yes, very much like Yud.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Honestly I tried reading it through but just ended up skimming it. It's like what if the Unabomber had ChatGPT.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Not to mention a lot of their gotcha was ... "look at the scary black people on this poster".

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I mean, sure, it's totally obvious.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This fucking supreme court... 6-3 as always. "Under a series of often-secret agreements, the Trump administration has deported some 25,000 people to more than two dozen countries, from Liberia to Guyana." Fucking hell. apnews.com/article/supr...

apnews.com

Supreme Court lets quick deportations to third countries resume for now while it weighs Trump policy

The Supreme Court will let President Donald Trump’s administration resume deporting people to countries other than their own for now, while the justices consider whether the policy is legal.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It says it doesn't do politics. Not the most useful chatbot.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This is also almost exactly MAGA's reasoning for destroying everything. Except MAGA aren't so overt about it.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It's wild that we basically knew this was happening at the time, but it's been allowed to continue for > 15 years until any of this ended up in a legal document. Malaga were defenestrated for much less. Aside: PSG did more or less the same thing, likely still doing it.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The other thing I'm seeing is pretty much all metrics in all countries are down since 2024, vs. PMC showing # of US infections remaining relatively constant. That seems inconsistent? The virus hasn't attenuated that much for infections/hospitalization ratios to change, and US-only is odd.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I should note: I'm not an expert in the topic, but construct validity and comparability across years are somewhat different things?

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

pmc19.com is an awesome at-a-glance ref for how the pandemic is going. The % contagious and the YoY comparisons are important for both tactics and strategy. I'd love to feel confident that both of those are best-guess accurate, and the underlying data source is sound. Feel free to DM if you prefer.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I understand that dynamic, but I'm in the real world it's unlikely the same intervention has exactly the same % impact on R for significantly different values of R. Dose sensitivity is one example: with high immunity an intervention might be 90% effective, but just 60% with low immunity.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Why? Because ever since 2022, public health capitulated to the urgency of normal and the GBD. The zeitgeist became disease is good, Covid concern is cringe, let's move on. Culture eats strategy for lunch, and the culture is what it is.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Yes, and thanks for the engagement. I will note however that it is entirely non-obvious that anyone in a position of responsibility or even ability has taken this kind of proposal seriously enough to evaluate and discard it on merit. Consequently, I've never seen this discussion resolved in public.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This means we could suppress and perhaps eliminate SARS2 by keeping ~92% of the population boosted. Lots of ways to do this, e.g. with a rolling schedule. This is the claim. I'm just an anonymous house on fire. Surely 1000s of PH officials have looked at the problem and reached the same conclusion?

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This deserves a new thread. The claim here, I think, is that today's C19 vaccines would have >= 95% VE if tested in a (hypothetical) completely naive cohort. These vaccines face two problems: waning and immune escape. Both are solvable with a faster vaccine update schedule, on the order of 6 mo.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

As discussed elsewhere, it's not obvious why this would be happening vs. steady state, so it's hard to draw conclusions. Current values are also still way too high for me to consider as "safe" in my own family's individual health context. Even one infection is something we've decided we don't want.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I suppose there is some justification people who mask indoors (as I do) want to see in terms of amortizing investments. However, I'm sure most of us would be thrilled to see this come to a clean end. For me, effective Long Covid therapeutics would be that. Unfortunately, I don't expect those soon.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Agree NPIs weren't cutting it in 2020, but that's cloth masks and social distancing. What I'm proposing is a vastly greater investment with far better tech.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Unfortunately the BA.1 saltation fundamentally changed the way SARS2 infects, with a much greater emphasis on the upper respiratory tract and better suppresion of innate immunity. This definitively lowered raw VE, making it nearly impossible (I fear) to create sterilizing muscular vaccines.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Agree with much greater adoption, we could save many lives and reduce post-viral sequelae by a decent percentage. But the 2021 vaccines were a unique moment in history where (a) the virus was still highly susceptible to muscular vaccines, and (b) the population was willing to accept them.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

1. What is the actual effectiveness of the intervention with a good-faith approach and cutting edge tech? 2. What is the actual cost? I'm open to this being 10X what I'd expect it to be. 3. What is the divergence of SARS2 behavior from ideal virus? Cuts both ways: faster waning, superspreaders...

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

So I've been assuming it is possible to achieve 50-60% efficiency against a real-life SARS2 wave, where Reff is something like 2-3 and never goes higher. That would be equivalent to ~90% against theoretical R0? Leaving three questions:

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Hah! I just realized we're talking about completely different interventional efficiency metrics, leading to very different assumptions. I've been thinking about real-life efficiency for clean air interventions (aka reduction in Reff), while your model is looking at a naive population (vs R0).

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I'd like to see actual engineering tested with actual measurements before I accept that premise. I.e. combined fitration that stays on with FAR-UVC. Of course, there are two different arguments here: 1. This doesn't really work 2. People will just get infected elsewhere

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

So if transmission is indeed ~1/2 of 2024 for two years now, that would be a pleasant surprise.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I will say by 2022 I expected something similar to Hoerger's graph, i.e. relatively consistent wave patterns over time reaching equilibrium, with saltations adding occasional spice. Divergence from that (e.g. new antigenic clusters or significantly lower transmission) would be unexpected to me.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I think BA3.2 is a suggestion that we might finally see significantly diverged lineages survive longer term without a liner succession process. These could evolve towards separate antigenic clusters, and the intense immune environment provides incentives towards exactly that.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I disagree that the results would be equivalent to vaccinating 25% more people. We had that a few years ago and it barely moved the needle.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I will admit I don't know how to estimate costs to an order of magnitude, so I plugged some goals into AI and got ~$1T over 10 years. From what I understand, Far-UVC and filtration are far cheaper than naive air replacement and the entire project needs some engineering but is not nearly intractable.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Now, you might say that you're not getting 60% from clean air alone, even if you exploit all the ways in which SARS2 differs from the ideal virus in this model, e.g. by focusing on 80/20, super-spreader locations: schools, churches, gyms, restaurants, hospitals, etc. Maybe so.

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Exsibilation @exsibilation.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

OK, I'll bite. What new equilibrium would be reached for an R0=8 pathogen (even though again realistically we'll never again see that number in reality) with a 60%-effective NPI intervention? If I'm reading the math correctly, that would result in a significant reduction in long-term incidence.

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