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...One tier serve their constituencies. The top-up tier serve the country/region and focus only on that.

...would be ok with it. Non-corrective AV+ ensures a large effect against highly polarising parties (the far-right) in the constituencies... that is then diluted but not corrected by proportional representation in large regions (eg European parliament regions). I would like two tiers of MPs...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 4m

But I think that brings the result back to proportional to first preferences. Proportional to full opinions would be disregarded, but is also very difficult to measure. STV's adjustment of the far-right down from first preferences isn't large enough for my liking, but maybe the general population..

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 15m

It's like the Alaska system is designed around the computer rather than the voter. Numbers in one column would definitely be my preference, too.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 55m

...broadly proportional. Reform UK would dominate top-up seats if they were corrective as a result of this.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 55m

Scottish constituency seats are dominated by one party, so top-up seats are distributed across all the others. With the modeling I did based on the newest British Election Study data, Reform were battered by constituency AV relative to their first preference share, where all other parties were...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1h

I think I saw an Alaskan "ballot paper" the other day, and it was multiple columns where you have to stamp your chad in the 5th column to indicate your 5th preference along from the party in the row that you want to rank 5th. I think the voice over said "It's as easy as..." let's not do that.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

It uses 2 ranked choices, doesn't it? Ok, so they're indicated with "x"s in columns (I'm Scottish so I've never used them), but that's the same as being able to put a 1 and 2 in the same column, isn't it?

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

Non-corrective AV+ hopefully if we don't want around 50% of list MPs being far-right MPs with no constituency responsibilities.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

The AV system allows the voters to erect and maintain the cordon sanitaire in a way that no single-mark system can. Have the voters begun to tolerate cooperation with the far-right? Not from the ranked preference or favourability polling I've analysed.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

Because everyone who is motivated to vote FOR anyone, is in the polling booth and able to rank even the people they dislike ahead of Le Pen. It's a theory, and I'd like to test it.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

...It sounds very much like he wants the benefit of ranked choices, and if he also wants proportionality to first preferences, non-corrective AV+ might be the best hybrid. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/trump-and-...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

Trump and Musk hate the Alternative Vote

It’s time to start deploying the best anti-fascist electoral system.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

He was waxing lyrical about the benefits of ranked choices on the today program (to do with his experience of SV). "Everyone's vote counts. Everyone's voice is heard" is not an endorsement of either the Welsh or Scottish systems where a great many wasted votes and tactical votes occur...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

If people want a mix of the two, only non-corrective AV+ with large regions survives alongside STV, and even then, it's hard to get the constituency sizes right in STV to satisfy both these proportionalities consistently.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

their political opinion as the available candidates allow, and those choices should matter. That rules out corrective AV+ as it would cancel out the effect of half of voters ranking a divisive party last. If people want proportionality, do they want it to first preferences, or to full opinions?...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

AMS fails (in constituencies and small regions). SV fails. Only STV, AV, AV+, and large region D'Hondt pass an honesty test of the front-runners, and large region D'Hondt isn't going to satisfy any locality test. Totality should be another stipulation. People should be able to express as much of...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

SV retains the tactical voting with the second vote that Labour maybe presume will benefit them. It's indefensible to have a tactical vote rewarded when you could just honestly rank all candidates. Honesty should be absolutely imperative in the thinking. D'Hondt fails (at least in small seats)...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

Word is the Liberal Party of Australia has swung rightwards of late, and far-right light doesn't work as a strategy.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

It didn't. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_So... I'd love to do an AV French presidential poll.

en.wikipedia.org

2026 South Australian state election - Wikipedia

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2h

The French two-round system is reliant on pacts between parties. It's much harder to vote for a party you dislike against a party you fear than it is to rank all your favourites, the party you dislike, then the far-right. Someone was adamant that South Australia would prove me wrong...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 3h

There's little point in rankings (which are a very good idea) if you don't give them the space to do their job. Non-corrective AV+ would punish divisive parties that are loathed by the majority, while ensuring every party with significant support gets seats. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/the-good-s...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

The Good Systems Disagreement

What makes a "good" electoral system needs amended when the voters are faced with the prospect of evil.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 3h

SV is basically diet FPTP. Whereas the Alternative Vote could herald the start of the defeat of far-right populism internationally. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/its-time-t... ...or if you prefer the views of an academic: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

It’s time to get TUFF on the far-right.

Favourability polling shows ranked choice voting to be The Universal Fascism Firewall.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 6h

...their new members will maybe cause their support to slip further. They might need a consolidation leader with broader appeal. If they threaten stand-asides and clear targeting, they can stop a Lab majority and argue forcefully for AV as an interim reform that unlocks their support before 2029.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 6h

It is really easy to play FPTP to their advantage. Targeting four seats at the last election was disastrously unambitious. Was it Green and Miori that found only 50% of their supporters were voting Green in perceived Green/Labour contests? Eco-populism was a great growth strategy, but some of...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 6h

I applied to be their campaign strategist unsuccessfully. If they targeted 100 of the safest progressive seats, stood aside to ensure Con and Reform defeats in hundreds of others, but then stood again after Labour's 300th likely win... they could very easily get into government...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 9h

When that poll was conducted in March, the Greens had a 10-point lead over Labour in 1st preferences. I sent them the evidence, and they did sod all about it. They could have said they were the progressive tactical vote for the elections in May, but they held back. Why? substack.com/@sprintforpr...

substack.com

Either Labour or Reform UK will be in crisis this year.

If Labour embrace electoral reform, Reform UK will implode. If they don't, tactical votes will flip Green in vast numbers.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 9h

Voting intention polls have been concealing their true support for years. Even when they reached the pinnacle of their support in March, their supporters were expressing tactical voting intention for Labour or the Lib Dems. This summarises the evidence. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/the-poll-t...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

The Poll that turns Britain Green.

It's possible the Greens have built a 10-point lead over Labour without anyone noticing.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 18h

I'm struggling to understand the morality of refusing to consider a practical electoral reform route to stopping fascism. The fascists are telling us they don't like the electoral system I support. Surely it's moral to push back against their intervention. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/trump-and-...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

Trump and Musk hate the Alternative Vote

It’s time to start deploying the best anti-fascist electoral system.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 20h

You're right. That leader should demand reform to the Alternative Vote before the next election so the right can't steal it with last-minute stand-asides. If Burnham doesn't deliver the reform, the Lib Dems become the anti-Reform UK/anti-Tory vote. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/why-we-nee...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

Why we need electoral reform in this parliament, and how we deliver it.

Andy Burnham has promised electoral reform in the next manifesto. We need to persuade him to act now.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 20h

Sorry for badgering you about AV that time. You said something along the lines of "you can't pick an electoral system to harm a particular party". What if it had the potential to shut out all far-right parties across the democratic world? ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/its-time-t...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

It’s time to get TUFF on the far-right.

Favourability polling shows ranked choice voting to be The Universal Fascism Firewall.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 21h

It wasn't clear that AV was the best chance of the world having a stable democratic future at the time. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/its-time-t... And the misinformation was wild.

ewanhoyle.substack.com

It’s time to get TUFF on the far-right.

Favourability polling shows ranked choice voting to be The Universal Fascism Firewall.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 21h

AV would stop the far-right from gaining power pretty much anywhere it is deployed. It would be the pinnacle of my life of anti-Tory, anti-Reform political activism. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/its-time-t...

static.klipy.com

Dwight Schrute: Oh, You Did Not Just Say That

ALT: Dwight Schrute: Oh, You Did Not Just Say That

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 21h

Well, let me jump out of your nasty dead zone waving evidence that it's actually the universal solution to the advance of the populist right. Boo!! ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/its-time-t... ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/trump-and-...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

It’s time to get TUFF on the far-right.

Favourability polling shows ranked choice voting to be The Universal Fascism Firewall.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 21h

A whole load of them have rising far-right populist parties that are shaping the political agenda. Let's lead the way on electoral reform rather than catching up with mediocre systems that give encouragement to the far-right. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/its-time-t...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

It’s time to get TUFF on the far-right.

Favourability polling shows ranked choice voting to be The Universal Fascism Firewall.

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Reposted by Ewan Hoyle

Norm Eisen @normeisen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

BREAKING: Davey Hearn reflecting pool prosecution dismissed WITH PREJUDICE That means the case cannot be brought again Huge victory for Davey, for us at @democracydefendersfund.org & our legal team colleagues Washington Litigation Group and Steptoe--& for rule of law More to follow!

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Tom Gordon MP (Lib Dem) has absolutely ripped this to shreds and told Davey to think again. Do they reckon they need better than Davey to lead against Burnham? They and the Greens might be considering leadership changes in the next month or so 🤔

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

...if you promise to wait 3 years before you spend it. Do things that will make people's lives better now, and you will be rewarded at the next election whether you broke promises or not. We want leaders who will do the right thing when the world changes, and the world just keeps f***ing changing.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I think the Lib Dems and Greens have to say "Well done mate. Nailed that. Now about those red lines that you inherited from an obviously rubbish politician..." Rejoin the EU. Raise taxes for the wealthiest. Ranked choice voting for the next election. There's no point building up political capital...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

They need to urgently pivot to protecting us from one last FPTP disaster. If Peter Kellner is right, and Reform UK are heading down to low double figures in seats, very rich people will ask Farage to stand down hundreds of Reform candidates. He will take their money and run, and KB won't deliver PR.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

...attractive for these times than it was in 2011. "As research has shown, reformers can fairly argue that AV was defeated then, at least in part, by widespread misinformation." This is an argument against a referendum, but also for re-examining the evidence on AV. substack.com/@sprintforpr...

substack.com

Do we want our electoral systems to prevent fascism?

A series of polling questions that would establish whether ranked choice voting would prevent fascism, and whether the public would prefer this.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

"Those alternatives should include majoritarian options such as AV, a variety of proportional systems (such as list systems and single transferable vote), and intermediate arrangements." This piece is enormously important. There are aspects to the Alternative Vote that make it so much more...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

AV can also be used as a base in a non-corrective AV+ system that gives voice to all sizeable voter groups. Excuse my interjecting. I fear the far-right, and its potential impact on my family and the communities I love. The electoral reform movement is blind to AV and its benefits, it seems.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Heartening to read this. It is enormously important that AV is considered. One thing that isn't mentioned is the potential for international impact. If a system can be found that reflects well voters' fears as well as their hopes, it can give hope to fearful voters across the democratic world.

Tables showing far-right parties of Austria, France, Portugal, Sweden, UK, and Germany ranked 5th of 5 major parties in each country by between 36 and 52% of voters polled.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Everything Burnham has been saying hints at him favouring a ranked choice electoral system. The right ranked choice system would be devastating to Reform UK. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/trump-and-...

ewanhoyle.substack.com

Trump and Musk hate the Alternative Vote

It’s time to start deploying the best anti-fascist electoral system.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

There's a great new article by Professor Varun Khaitan on the risks of Proportional Representation. We need a ranked choice system so that people can rank the parties they fear last. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

The Perils of Proportional Representation for Ethnic Minorities

Two arguments about ethnic minorities run through the debate over replacing first past the post. One promises that proportional representation would represent minorities better; the other worries tha...

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-tactic... If they're heading towards single figures again, some very rich people will want them out of the way.

kellnerp.substack.com

How tactical voting could destroy Reform…

…and left-of-centre voters help to revive the Tories

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