Sign in

Ewan Hoyle

@ewanhoyle.bsky.social
676 followers 1.2K following 2K posts

Author of the Sprint for PR Substack: @ewanhoyle.substack.com Advocate for ranked preference polling and voting systems. Increasingly overwhelmed at being one of the few who have realised that AV was the solution to the far-right all along.

PostsRepliesMedia
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Heartening to read this. It is enormously important that AV is considered. One thing that isn't mentioned is the potential for international impact. If a system can be found that reflects well voters' fears as well as their hopes, it can give hope to fearful voters across the democratic world.
Tables showing far-right parties of Austria, France, Portugal, Sweden, UK, and Germany ranked 5th of 5 major parties in each country by between 36 and 52% of voters polled.
100
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
My projections of seats from an AV election from the poll results in March did have them being the largest party in a coalition with the Lib Dems, though. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/either-lab...
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"I prefer facts."
110
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
We can end the Farage threat just by listening to all the voters who want to say "no". Ranked Choice Voting would be devastating to Reform UK, the AfD, Rassemblement National, and probably most far-rights populists in established democracies. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/trump-and-...
042
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Why should we only have one vote for one party? If we could rank all of the candidates on the ballot paper, then our electoral system can reflect our loathing for extremists if (for example) half of us would rank them dead last. Oh, what's this? ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/why-we-nee...
132
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
That German favourability poll 👇
010
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Would the same psychological effect work for the supporters of far-right parties?
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
It's a poll asking how people would rank these parties in England under a ranked preference polling system. It's a hypothetical question that you are not prepared to let yourself answer honestly, because in doing so, you would lose the argument. It's OK. Would you like a hug?
100
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
You absolutely need to be looking at poll numbers, just not simple voting intention polls. Interim reform to AV absolutely destroys the far-right electorally, and by extension, the rest of the whole bloody project. Non-corrective AV+ as a reform in Germany probably shafts the AfD there, too.
121
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Germany, like the UK, would be very well served by ranked preference polling and a ranked element to your electoral system. This is what ranked preferences show in the UK👇. The closest I've found for Germany was mean favourability scores from 2025 showing the AfD well adrift of all other parties.
100
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
In THIS example 👇
100
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
So you're sticking with the Lib Dems getting about 13% of representation, give or take, and Reform UK, 28%, again, give or take? That's your belief of what would be fair in this example?
100
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
What is the will of the people here?
100
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Standard voting intention polling massively underestimates Green support wherever they campaign to win. I've tried to persuade @theweekinpolls.bsky.social of this to no avail. Now, with your analysis, I'm thinking Zack could get 60% of the vote rather than 50%.
010
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
I'm having an issue finding details on some ranked preference columns, and was hoping to find out what the question was.
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
These are English ranked preferences from March. Of course AV helps. It is a system of sequential stand-asides by the least popular parties to counter the threat of stand-asides by one right or far-right party in each seat. I confidently predict it will ruin Reform UK.
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Any interest in doing a ranked preference poll? It'd be interesting to see if people actually like Burnham that much, or if they're just more prepared to vote for him tactically than Starmer. I did one with YouGov in March, but More in Common have Greens polling consistently low relative to them.
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
"If the Greens and Liberal Democrats want electoral reform, there are simple levers they can pull to make First-Past-the-Post unbearably hostile to the Labour Party." 😎 ewanhoyle.substack.com/publish/post...
130
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Can I please talk to you about ranked preference polling, modeling of election outcomes under different electoral systems, and the electoral reform that would protect us from the far-right forever? ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/why-we-nee...
010
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Regular ranked preference polling might dent the confidence of far-right voters. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
172
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Here's a YouGov poll that should dent Reform voters' confidence. Half of voters would rank Reform UK last of the major parties. Their voters are part of a loud minority, not a silent majority.
150
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
They would be interested if we told them the difference between the one we have now and the Alternative Vote is potentially 50% of seats for Reform UK, or 20% of seats for Reform UK. There's half the population rank Reform UK last in a preferential poll and would be very interested in that outcome.
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
The "right bloc" is leaky. In my ranked preference poll in March, they had 45% of 1st preferences, and 35% of 2nd preferences. Less than half of Con 1st voters had RefUK 2nd. We need more ranked preference polls, please 🙏
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
If the Greens can identify a leader people like, there is an awful lot of support out there for them to unlock. The prediction that the Greens were 10 points ahead of Labour 👇 open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl... And here's the poll that confirmed exactly that 👇
010
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
The Greens don't win where they don't campaign, and they are chronically under-campaigning. Whether this is a resource thing or a lack of ambition/organisation thing I do not know. I sent them a ranked preference poll showing them ten points ahead of Labour in first preferences in March...
100
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
A ranked preference poll in March had the Greens 10 points ahead of Labour in first preferences. They had become the progressive tactical vote... but they ignored that poll, and fell back. Their true support in first preferences is probably still in the high teens to low twenties though.
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Now ask them if they would like a temporary move to the Alternative Vote while the commission does its work. Now explain to them that over half of voters would rank Reform dead last, they are going backwards in the polls, and they might find majority support in any seat impossible.
120
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Superficial analysis... and superficial polling. A regular ranked preference poll would show us the full picture: half the country hates them. It would also hint that ranked preference electoral systems would eliminate them from contention for government. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
052
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
This is half-assed nonsense from @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-... There is no way STV would produce the same number of seats for the Lib Dems as a party list. If you're modeling AMS, you have to model AV+ alongside. Non-corrective AV+ would be even better...
120
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
A majority would rank Reform UK dead last if they had the chance. The Alternative Vote would take seat projections for Reform UK below 20% rather than nearer 50% at present.
001
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
I don't know who the first one is, but Enid wants to fight him.
030
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
I commissioned a ranked preference poll in March that showed that 28% of English voters would rank Reform UK first, but 51% would rank them last of the 5 main parties. I suspect this pattern of support and disdain would be common to all far-right parties, no matter the country. All the tactical...
1247
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
I feel your frustration, Gary. I feel like I'm the only person who has realised that ranked preference electoral systems f*** the far-right. I spent my own money on a poll that proved I was right. Maybe Ewan's politics would open the door for Gary's economics. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
010
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Can you please talk about preferential representation? When half the country would rank Reform UK last of the 5 major parties, it is not enough to have a purely proportional system. Only a system where people can rank fascists last is a "good system" open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
And if that doesn't happen, it's the moment for all of us to fix the electoral system so that c***s with under 50% support don't get elected. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
010
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Vatersay cows
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
In March the Green Party were 10 points ahead of Labour in first preferences in England. If they'd bothered to tell anyone, Labour might have been finished. You suck, Keir. Goodbye.
040
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
041
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
you want non-corrective AV+. If it's under 20%, you want AV. This is the full poll. 👇
100
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
So if a party had a preference profile like this (1st prefs at top down to 5th prefs at the bottom), what proportion of seats do you think they ideally should get?
200
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
And the only way to stop them stealing the next election is electoral reform. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
140
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
010
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
They could be made zero through electoral reform to a ranked preference electoral system. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Reform UK are so widely loathed that we could tweak our electoral system and forget about them completely. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
000
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
...and it's reflected in polling. 28% ranked Reform UK first in March. 51% ranked them last. If we let people rank preferences in our electoral system, that decency of the majority would be translated into a thumping progressive majority in parliament. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
120
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
...ranked preferences can play in adjusting the representation of extreme parties, is a major oversight. Can I please present to the team my polling and modeling research in this field and my suggestions for the research that could further elucidate this area?
010
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
...I would like to be able to present to you the findings of my ranked preference polling and my modeling research, and my suggestions for further research that could shape the debate in a useful direction.
010
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
They're all going to do a last-minute stand-aside pact. It's the only thing that makes sense to their donors. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
012
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
I wish the ERS would end this worship of proportionality. When the ranked preferences of parties look like this, I suspect the general public would be very happy for Reform UK to get much lower representation that that which is proportional to their first preferences. AV would deliver that.
120
Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
So if the general population were asked to choose between making one vote for one party and expressing their full opinion on all candidates by ranking them, you think they'd choose the former? We don't know because the AV referendum was never framed in these terms.
000