Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 10hA quick glance into the Hurdat2 dataset suggests that Rachel and Simon are about to become the first pair of named storms to come ashore on the same day in the Eastern Pacific since continuous records began in 1949. A pair did it in 2011, but one was a Tropical Depression that was never named. 041
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 08/10/2026By a mere 3 hours, Isaias appears to have become the latest-forming first-hurricane of any season since continuous records began in 1851. However, given how marginally the record was eclipsed, it will ultimately depend on final reanalysis in the NHC's end-of-year official assessment of the storm. 040
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Latest NHC forecast has Isaias down to breaking the record by a mere 0-6 hours. Very possible we waited a nearly unprecedented 4 months for the first hurricane of the season, only to have it fall just hours short of the all-time record. Either way, will probably come down to post-season reanalysis. 020
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 07/10/2026National Hurricane Center is predicting that Hurricane Isaias will become the "latest-forming first-hurricane" on record for any Atlantic Season dating back to at least 1851. Current forecast has it becoming a hurricane just 12-18 hours after the current record, which was set in 1905. Will be close! 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 07/10/2026@nws.noaa.gov referring to Tropical Depression #9 as "over the Gulf of America" is incorrect per the renaming Executive Order. The order explicitly only renames the coastal waters in the northern half of the Gulf - it does not rename the southern half. The 3rd pic depicts the part that was "renamed" 030
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 06/10/2026With the NHC now giving the system in the Gulf of Mexico a 90% chance of development, it appears that we could be cutting it very close to the record... need to make it past 0z October 8th (black box) in order to eclipse the current record from 1905. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 06/10/2026We are now within 36 hours of eclipsing the record for Latest-First-Hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. Need to make it past 0z October 8th to eclipse the current record from 1905. 100
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Pending post season reanalysis, Fay seems to have missed its shot at becoming a hurricane. Of all the 173 years with documented hurricanes, only 1905 has waited longer for its first to arrive. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 24/08/2026Underscoring my points, the National Weather Service confirmed that this week's tornado came ashore less than three miles away from where the 2021 tornado touched down. Both Nassau County tornadoes occurred less than three miles from JFK Airport in Queens. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 21/08/2026"Tornadoes are a rare occurrence for New York City and Long Island" - @nytimes.com Despite common misconception, Long Island is actually one of the tornado hotspots in New York State. Nearly the same exact spot that was hit by a tornado yesterday was also struck less than five years ago. 100
Reposted by Ethan BurwellZack Labe @zacklabe.com · 14/08/2026Really silly to see people grasping at straws against the reality of global climate change by still using examples from July 1936 (or 1976). The reality is increasingly obvious. Graphics are from slides in a presentation of mine, which use NASA/GISS GISTEMPv4 data (and their 1951-1980 baseline). 1023886
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Impressive radar loop. This track was likely worse than a technical landfall. 001
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 29/06/2026For many parts of New York State outside of the Hudson/Champlain valleys, this is the first Extreme Heat Watch since 2018. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 29/06/2026Literally fire & ice out there right now #FrostAdvisory #HeatAdvisory #FreezeWarning #ExtremeHeatWarning #WinterStormWarning #RedFlagWarning 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 16/06/2026As a huge proponent of user-friendly graphics, I was underwhelmed with the quality of the infant choking / CPR infographics on the internet, so I made my own. It distills the American Heart Association's recommendations into a format that is, IMO, more user-friendly during an actual emergency. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/05/2026Yup. And as Utah is literally packing their court. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 17/04/2026As expected, I’ve seen ~questionable~ utilizations of the new SPC intensity categories on social media, but this one takes the cake so far. With several hundred likes on Facebook this one definitively depicts where EF3 and EF2 tornadoes will form 🤦♂️ 130
Reposted by Ethan BurwellDakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 11/04/2026The life and death of twin cyclones in the West Pacific. A fascinating evolution and interaction. 822342
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 18/03/2026Virtually all areas with >60% chance severe weather (SC to MD) verified, and most of the 45-59% chance areas did as well. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 18/03/2026This graphic kind of illustrates the accuracy of the 12z SPC forecast. The probability is the peak percentage from their tornado, wind, and hail maps at the given locations, i.e. the maximum probability of severe weather. Hatches are where severe weather did occur using the SPC's 25 mile parameter. 120
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 17/03/2026How is the headline not: President calls the nearly 40% of Americans with learning disabilities "dumb"?! 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 17/03/2026I definitely wouldn't call yesterday's Severe Weather a "bust". Were there less tornadoes than might otherwise be expected, sure, but localized tornado probabilities were at most 15%. Damaging winds were always the bigger risk (↑60% locally) and their @nws.noaa.gov SPC forecast verified pretty well. 151
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/03/2026Also, on the proposed graphics, I used EF2-EF5 since EF2 is the "max reasonable/expected" intensity for CIG1 in both SPC infographics. But if there's a more appropriate/meaningful range (ex EF3-EF5) it could easily be subbed in along with its corresponding probabilities. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/03/2026*typo correction* - in the probability of formation section of the two proposed images, the second probability level should be 45-59%, not 45-49%. 100
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/03/20263/3 the last "proposal" I would offer regarding the CIGs is that SPC should 100% update this graphic w/ the intensity or make a separate one. The new clear, concise infographic really needs to be on their homepage. People should not have to google what the intensity levels mean & hope for the best. 110
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/03/20262/3 imo, the best way to remove those barriers is to simply incorporate clear, concise (cc) legends into the graphics. I did these in 20 min... surely SPC can make them better. Also, this is my personal take on the most cc way to describe the CIG's after days of sifting through the ambiguity 100
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/03/2026Good catch – we were talking about different ones. Unfortunately, imo a majority who will see these are non-technical especially w/ media spreading them. SPC left immense barriers to accessing & interpreting the definitions. It isn’t reasonable to expect a non-met to find & interpret correctly. 1/3 100
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/03/2026I agree - that is now at all how I would choose describe the new CIGs. Unfortunately, that is exactly how they are being communicated in the SPC infographics: "if a tornado forms, its max expected intensity is EFx-EFy". The infographic you linked to actually doesn't even offer the range... 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/03/2026That’s the problem – the CIG %’s are not communicated. The formation probability element is and expresses a continuum of risk, so in/out matters less. The CIG elements do not accessibly communicate probability, so the in/out factor is significant- this increases binary risk/no risk perception, imo. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/03/2026I hear you; I personally believe the new change increases the risk of misinterpretation... it would be valuable to see actual research on the extent to which removing a clear, concise description from the graphic affects public interpretation. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 10/03/2026Conditional ≠ probabilistic. You’re describing probability embedded in a conditional statement. But in current form, those probabilities arent apparent ➡️ why I said it’s rooted in probability but deterministic. The only public-facing element is the “expected” description which relays no probability. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 10/03/2026Great points! One thing jumping out to me is the MD topic. Here in NYS, @nyswrcc.bsky.social literally converts these to plain-language briefings for state/local EMs cause they're often jargon ladened & very easy to miss. Curious the extent to which non-NYS EMs actually use them in their raw forms. 040
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 10/03/2026Does it? Yes, threshold is lower but, effectiveness reduced imo. Before/after ex: before- clear what hatching (lack thereof) means; after- interpretation contingent on access to external descriptions which are now more deterministic ➡️ more binary risk perception... MI media interpreted as "no risk". 100
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 10/03/2026I acknowledged benefit in a different post. I also acknowledged it's rooted in probability. However, imo “Max Expected EF#” isn't a probabilistic statement. ~Akin to saying, “Expected snow: 6-12in”. Even if that 6”/12” = specific thresholds on underlying prob. distribution, its still deterministic. 100
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 10/03/20261) Correct – I do reference the graphic; I also reference its ambiguity. 2) While based on that, it's being communicated deterministically. ~Akin to saying, “If it snows, 6-12in is expected”. Even if that 6”/12” = specific thresholds on underlying probabilistic distribution its still deterministic. 110
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/2026I'll end by noting local @nws.noaa.gov summary of the event certainly reads as pretty damning for the new SPC intensity product. For SPC to not have Michigan under any intensity level, then have NWS say the environment was favorable for EF4's is bad look - 👍justification for the Governor's probe imo 0110
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/20263) ...continued... While its good to highlight where there is a high risk of intense tornadoes, I fear this product will do more harm than good on the geographic peripheries. By using a categorical product, areas not hatched could easily be mislead into false security that will not always verify. 151
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/20263) it can mislead people into undervaluing their risk. Ultimately, this is my main concern I've had since first reading about the product on 1/30/26. Even w/ the legacy Outlook , there are times when tors occur outside of slights/marginals areas... this will happen with the new one >7% of the time. 141
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/20262) ...continued, again... The wild part about the new product not being probabilistic is that it's at least rooted in probability... 7% of tornadoes in events with no intensity level have been EF2+. Not communicating that 7% historical risk is 🤯 spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information 131
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/20262) ...continued... The new intensity products are deterministic - you're either under a risk level, or you're not. There's no probability element to highlight when a low risk is in fact present. This was 100% the case w/ Michigan's tornadoes- there was data to suggest sig tors, but got filtered out 141
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/20262) it is deterministic, not probabilistic like the rest of the product. The legacy Convective Weather Outlook is a probabilistic product at its core... even areas not in "Marginal" risk zone don't necessarily mean they have 0 risk - it just means they have less than 2% risk of tornadoes... 261
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/20261) ...continued... Nowhere on SPC website is there even a clear definition of what the intensity levels mean. The best I could find was nearly 2 minutes into a video embedded on one of their pages. And even then it's extremely ambiguous. Ex: Level 1 is max intensity of "EF2+" so.... EF0 to EF5?? 171
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/20261) no clearly defined description of what the levels mean. Unlike the legacy Convective Weather Outlooks, no where on the new product does it say what the intensity levels mean. Media outlets will continue to recirculate these maps and without clear descriptions there's room for misinterpretation. 171
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/2026There are multiple issues with the new intensity element in the SPC convective weather outlook, including: 1) no clearly defined description of what the levels even mean 2) it is deterministic, not probabilistic like the rest of the product 3) it can mislead people into undervaluing their risk. 2121
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/2026I've been concerned about this for weeks now. The new SPC intensity product has HUGE potential for miscommunication. Literally 3 days in, we have a perfect example: Local Media on the day of a deadly EF3 advertising **no risk** of significant tornadoes - directly amplifying the SPC's new product. 22912
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 22/01/2026Parts of New York are on track to have their longest-continuous Winter Storm Warnings on record... again. The local National Weather Service has used Winter Storm Warnings instead of Lake Effect Snow Warnings since mid-December. Since then, parts of their region have broken this record twice now! 011
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 02/01/2026Roughly 50-thousand people across 11 states rang in 2026 with snow squall warnings. 020
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 30/09/2025Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda are just the third pair of named tropical cyclones to be colocated between Bermuda and the US east coast since 1900. Previous pairs: Hurricane Gaston & Tropical Storm Hermine in 2004; Tropical Storms Isidore and Hortense in 1984. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 28/09/2025Preliminary analysis: Humberto intensified from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 in 42 hours, which puts it in a 5-way tie for 9th fastest TS → C5 intensification in the Atlantic. Erin did the same feat in about 30 hours last month, which is a 3-way tie for 2nd fastest. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 27/08/2025As we approach the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, there will continue to be many recaps and takes on the storm. I want to share this video I put together in 2020 highlighting a different angle than I've ever come across elsewhere: drive.google.com/file/d/1QBOl... 010