Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 4hA quick glance into the Hurdat2 dataset suggests that Rachel and Simon are about to become the first pair of named storms to come ashore on the same day in the Eastern Pacific since continuous records began in 1949. A pair did it in 2011, but one was a Tropical Depression that was never named. 041
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 08/10/2026By a mere 3 hours, Isaias appears to have become the latest-forming first-hurricane of any season since continuous records began in 1851. However, given how marginally the record was eclipsed, it will ultimately depend on final reanalysis in the NHC's end-of-year official assessment of the storm. 040
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Latest NHC forecast has Isaias down to breaking the record by a mere 0-6 hours. Very possible we waited a nearly unprecedented 4 months for the first hurricane of the season, only to have it fall just hours short of the all-time record. Either way, will probably come down to post-season reanalysis. 020
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 07/10/2026National Hurricane Center is predicting that Hurricane Isaias will become the "latest-forming first-hurricane" on record for any Atlantic Season dating back to at least 1851. Current forecast has it becoming a hurricane just 12-18 hours after the current record, which was set in 1905. Will be close! 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 07/10/2026@nws.noaa.gov referring to Tropical Depression #9 as "over the Gulf of America" is incorrect per the renaming Executive Order. The order explicitly only renames the coastal waters in the northern half of the Gulf - it does not rename the southern half. The 3rd pic depicts the part that was "renamed" 030
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 06/10/2026We are now within 36 hours of eclipsing the record for Latest-First-Hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. Need to make it past 0z October 8th to eclipse the current record from 1905. 100
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Pending post season reanalysis, Fay seems to have missed its shot at becoming a hurricane. Of all the 173 years with documented hurricanes, only 1905 has waited longer for its first to arrive. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 21/08/2026"Tornadoes are a rare occurrence for New York City and Long Island" - @nytimes.com Despite common misconception, Long Island is actually one of the tornado hotspots in New York State. Nearly the same exact spot that was hit by a tornado yesterday was also struck less than five years ago. 100
Reposted by Ethan BurwellZack Labe @zacklabe.com · 14/08/2026Really silly to see people grasping at straws against the reality of global climate change by still using examples from July 1936 (or 1976). The reality is increasingly obvious. Graphics are from slides in a presentation of mine, which use NASA/GISS GISTEMPv4 data (and their 1951-1980 baseline). 1023886
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Impressive radar loop. This track was likely worse than a technical landfall. 001
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 29/06/2026For many parts of New York State outside of the Hudson/Champlain valleys, this is the first Extreme Heat Watch since 2018. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 29/06/2026Literally fire & ice out there right now #FrostAdvisory #HeatAdvisory #FreezeWarning #ExtremeHeatWarning #WinterStormWarning #RedFlagWarning 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 16/06/2026As a huge proponent of user-friendly graphics, I was underwhelmed with the quality of the infant choking / CPR infographics on the internet, so I made my own. It distills the American Heart Association's recommendations into a format that is, IMO, more user-friendly during an actual emergency. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 17/04/2026As expected, I’ve seen ~questionable~ utilizations of the new SPC intensity categories on social media, but this one takes the cake so far. With several hundred likes on Facebook this one definitively depicts where EF3 and EF2 tornadoes will form 🤦♂️ 130
Reposted by Ethan BurwellDakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 11/04/2026The life and death of twin cyclones in the West Pacific. A fascinating evolution and interaction. 822342
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 17/03/2026I definitely wouldn't call yesterday's Severe Weather a "bust". Were there less tornadoes than might otherwise be expected, sure, but localized tornado probabilities were at most 15%. Damaging winds were always the bigger risk (↑60% locally) and their @nws.noaa.gov SPC forecast verified pretty well. 151
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 09/03/2026I've been concerned about this for weeks now. The new SPC intensity product has HUGE potential for miscommunication. Literally 3 days in, we have a perfect example: Local Media on the day of a deadly EF3 advertising **no risk** of significant tornadoes - directly amplifying the SPC's new product. 22912
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 22/01/2026Parts of New York are on track to have their longest-continuous Winter Storm Warnings on record... again. The local National Weather Service has used Winter Storm Warnings instead of Lake Effect Snow Warnings since mid-December. Since then, parts of their region have broken this record twice now! 011
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 02/01/2026Roughly 50-thousand people across 11 states rang in 2026 with snow squall warnings. 020
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 30/09/2025Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda are just the third pair of named tropical cyclones to be colocated between Bermuda and the US east coast since 1900. Previous pairs: Hurricane Gaston & Tropical Storm Hermine in 2004; Tropical Storms Isidore and Hortense in 1984. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 28/09/2025Preliminary analysis: Humberto intensified from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 in 42 hours, which puts it in a 5-way tie for 9th fastest TS → C5 intensification in the Atlantic. Erin did the same feat in about 30 hours last month, which is a 3-way tie for 2nd fastest. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 27/08/2025As we approach the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, there will continue to be many recaps and takes on the storm. I want to share this video I put together in 2020 highlighting a different angle than I've ever come across elsewhere: drive.google.com/file/d/1QBOl... 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 22/08/2025As of today's 11AM update, Erin now ranks comfortably in the Top-10 Largest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Its tropical storm force wind field is the 8th largest on record. Its hurricane force wind field is on par with Lorenzo as the largest on record since data began in 2004. 011
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 21/08/2025Even more wild is that Erin is currently forecast to have one of the largest hurricane-force wind fields. The latest forecast surpasses Hurricane Sandy and essentially ties it with Hurricane Teddy from 2020 as the 3rd largest hurricane-force wind field on record in the Atlantic. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 21/08/2025Hurricane Erin is currently the 27th largest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record. She is forecast to become the 10th largest on record before becoming post-tropical this weekend. Size data goes back to 2004. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 19/08/2025Hurricane Erin’s wind field at peak intensity on Saturday compared to the other category 4 & 5 Atlantic hurricanes this decade. Although its winds have weakened, its wind field will continue to grow in size. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 11/03/2025Three images, 21 years of forecasts 👀 March 9, 2004: My weekly "Five Day Forecast" (via TWC) I'd create by hand and distribute to my 5th grade class. March 10, 2014: An update from my first weather website. March 10, 2025: The current version of my site that I built from scratch 18 months ago. 030
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 21/02/2025Seven years ago today, much of New York State set all-time February record-high temperatures. Temperatures reached 70°F from Buffalo to Long Island and peaked as high as 78°F in the NYC metro area. 120
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 19/02/2025Eight years ago I was a relatively new Registered Nurse working 12-hour night shifts on a hospital medical/surgical unit considering going to grad school for weather/emergency management. Today, I am a meteorologist with a M.S. in Emergency Management. 061
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 10/02/2025Throwback to virtually teaching fourth graders about the Water Cycle during the pandemic 💛 eburwell929.wixsite.com/my-vxw-site-... 020
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 01/02/2025New York State snow: feast or famine. While snow’s been below normal across much of the region, the Great Lakes have produced massive amounts of snow. Interior parts of NYS have picked up 2x their normal amounts with 12+ feet in parts of west/north NY and a whopping 16+ feet in the Tug Hill region! 030
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 30/01/2025Today the Storm Prediction Center used the term "Gulf of America" in an outlook. Appears to be the first time the term's been used in a NOAA product. Though, a National Hurricane Center document from 2016 used the term once along with "Gulf of Mexico" six times. 210
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 25/01/2025While I question the veracity of the 13.4" report out of Louisiana, the fact remains that much of the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida had more snow this week than my hometown of Kingston, NY. The 5.4" that fell in Kingston on Sunday was their largest snowstorm in over a year. 020
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 21/01/2025First Blizzard Warning ever issued in Louisiana ✅ the Deep South ✅ 021
Reposted by Ethan BurwellNY State Weather Risk Communication Center @nyswrcc.bsky.social · 17/01/2025Next week is the climatologically coldest part of winter, and nature is doing its part to remind us. In addition to very cold temperatures, lake effect snow will be likely for areas of western NY. Here's a snapshot of what the week may look like ⤵️ 061
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 15/01/2025I’ve always found it wildly perplexing that NHC cones are based on static radii instead of ensemble spread 🤯 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 04/01/2025A huge peeve of mine is academic articles that have a “plain language” section after the abstract. ALL abstracts (and journals) should be completely written in plain language imo. There is no need for a brief “translation” section”. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 31/12/20242016 ◆ 2020 ◆ 2024 And here's to many more!! #BestBoyEver 020
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 22/12/2024Brutally cold across New York today. No part of the state has felt warmer than the teens today and every corner of the state has felt below zero 🥶 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 22/12/2024While not necessarily precipitating, there is fascinating river-effect convection occurring along the St. Lawrence this morning! Based on temperature readings from near Alexandria Bay, there river is a toasty 40°F (NOAA) while the surrounding air is a frigid 0°F (NYSMesonet). 030
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 21/12/2024My favorite part of winter is how bright the nights are when it is snowing. I love just walking around town at night in the falling snow. 120
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Looks like today’s flight to Dubai intentionally detoured around Israel’s genocide in Palestine. 100
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 29/11/2024Wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see some ocean effect snow off Long Island on Saturday night. 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 29/11/2024I actively dislike that some counties are under “Lake Effect Snow Warnings” while others are under “Winter Storm Warnings” for “heavy lake effect snow”. Same hazard, same source, same event - different headlines 🙃 010
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 28/11/2024Today is Albany’s latest first-snow since 2017 and 21st latest since 1938. 000
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 22/11/2024How much snow does it take to disrupt schools? Answer: it’s a trick question! Snow amounts are not a definitive factor when it comes to school impacts. Many areas in red/yellow on the map had 0-2 inches while others had 6-12. The single most important factor for school impacts is timing. 120
Ethan Burwell @ethanburwell.bsky.social · 17/11/2024Tropical Storm Sara has produced over 30 inches of rain in the Ulua River Basin of Honduras. Because the basin funnels toward the coast, it seems likely that ongoing flooding will persist and potentially worsen even after the rain ends due to runoff water bottlenecking as it approaches the coast. 010