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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

More broadly, applying this framework to other high-skill occupations would allow researchers to assess how polarized state policies shape workforce composition. Full paper, with additional mechanisms, robustness, and discussion: ethankbergmann.github.io/abortion-bans/ 🧵

ethankbergmann.github.io

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Taken together, the evidence suggests that aggregate stability in the short run can mask changes in who provides care, where new providers choose to practice, and the training backgrounds represented in the active workforce.

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Short-run aggregate supply is stable, but this may not persist. The pipeline comprises the most responsive groups: close to 90% of 2020 graduates are female and, among partisan contributors, over 90% are Democratic. For 1970 graduates, those shares were below 20% and 50%.

Line chart titled “Gender Composition of OBGYN Graduates, 1970–2020.” The horizontal axis shows medical school graduation year; the vertical axis shows percent female. The female share rises from 16.6% among 1970 graduates to 50.0% in 1990, 73.3% in 2000, 83.4% in 2010, and 87.5% in 2020. Footer: “The Impact of Abortion Bans on the Physician Labor Market: Compositional and Pipeline Effects — Ethan Bergmann (2026).”

Line chart titled “Party Composition of OBGYN Graduates, 1970–2020.” Among OBGYN graduates with partisan campaign contributions, the Democratic share rises from 48.4% in 1970 to 91.9% in 2020, while the Republican share falls from 51.6% to 8.1%. The lines cross around 1980. Footer: “The Impact of Abortion Bans on the Physician Labor Market: Compositional and Pipeline Effects — Ethan Bergmann (2026).”

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

I find most compositional changes are driven by new entrants, rather than exits from the observed workforce or migration among incumbents. However, incumbent migration is notable for Democratic-donating OBGYNs. Conditional on moving, destination choices are descriptively unchanged.

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Given the politically salient nature of abortion and reproductive care, physicians' partisan identity may shape where they practice. I link the physician registry to DIME, a database of political contributions, to make this dimension observable.

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Composition matters. Existing research finds that physicians' political identity, gender, and training background influence the services they provide and costs they incur. Patients also have strong preferences about provider gender: fewer than one in ten prefer a male OBGYN.

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

This aggregate null masks changes in workforce composition. States with total bans experienced relative declines in the supply of Democratic-donating, female, early-career, & top-50-medical school OBGYNs, with increases for male OBGYNs & those trained at unranked medical schools.

Coefficient plot titled “Changes in OBGYN Density, Overall and by Subgroup.” It shows estimated percent changes in OBGYN density in total-ban states relative to abortion-protecting states. Point estimates are: all OBGYNs, −0.7%; Democratic, −8.6%; Republican, −1.3%; female, −4.3%; male, +1.9%; early-career, −21.9%; top-50-trained, −9.0%; and unranked, +3.5%. Footer: “The Impact of Abortion Bans on the Physician Labor Market: Compositional and Pipeline Effects — Ethan Bergmann (2026).”

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

I use a quarterly physician panel to compare OBGYN density in total-ban states with a weighted counterfactual constructed from abortion-protecting states. I find no evidence of aggregate changes and can rule out an average post-ban decline greater than 1.64%.

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Updated draft: In June 2022, the Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court decision overturned Roe v. Wade, sending abortion regulation back to states. Within months, bans were enforced in some states while others expanded protections. I study how these bans affected the practice locations of OBGYNs. 🧵

Screenshot of front matter.

The Impact of Abortion Bans on the Physician Labor Market: Compositional and Pipeline Effects*

Ethan Bergmann†

August 28, 2026

[Most recent version here]

Abstract

I study the physician labor market after Dobbs, which allowed states to enforce abortion bans. I link quarterly obstetrician-gynecologist (OBGYN) locations to political contributions and use synthetic difference-in-differences to compare provider supply and migration between total-ban and abortion-protecting states. I find no aggregate supply decline. However, this stability masks compositional changes: relative per-capita supply falls for female, early-career, top-ranked, and Democratic-donating providers, while male and unranked supply increases. These shifts are more consistent with workforce entry and exit than migration by existing providers. Together, Dobbs polarized the U.S. OBGYN workforce, with implications for reproductive-care access and future supply.

JEL Codes: I11, I18, J44, J61
Keywords: abortion policy, physician labor markets, political sorting

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