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Ethan Bergmann

@ethanbergmann.bsky.social

UMich Econ + Ford School PhD and NSF GRF | Health, Labor & Public Finance | Formerly: Princeton RA, Swarthmore '22 Website: ethankbergmann.github.io

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Short-run aggregate supply is stable, but this may not persist. The pipeline comprises the most responsive groups: close to 90% of 2020 graduates are female and, among partisan contributors, over 90% are Democratic. For 1970 graduates, those shares were below 20% and 50%.

Line chart titled “Gender Composition of OBGYN Graduates, 1970–2020.” The horizontal axis shows medical school graduation year; the vertical axis shows percent female. The female share rises from 16.6% among 1970 graduates to 50.0% in 1990, 73.3% in 2000, 83.4% in 2010, and 87.5% in 2020. Footer: “The Impact of Abortion Bans on the Physician Labor Market: Compositional and Pipeline Effects — Ethan Bergmann (2026).”

Line chart titled “Party Composition of OBGYN Graduates, 1970–2020.” Among OBGYN graduates with partisan campaign contributions, the Democratic share rises from 48.4% in 1970 to 91.9% in 2020, while the Republican share falls from 51.6% to 8.1%. The lines cross around 1980. Footer: “The Impact of Abortion Bans on the Physician Labor Market: Compositional and Pipeline Effects — Ethan Bergmann (2026).”

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

This aggregate null masks changes in workforce composition. States with total bans experienced relative declines in the supply of Democratic-donating, female, early-career, & top-50-medical school OBGYNs, with increases for male OBGYNs & those trained at unranked medical schools.

Coefficient plot titled “Changes in OBGYN Density, Overall and by Subgroup.” It shows estimated percent changes in OBGYN density in total-ban states relative to abortion-protecting states. Point estimates are: all OBGYNs, −0.7%; Democratic, −8.6%; Republican, −1.3%; female, −4.3%; male, +1.9%; early-career, −21.9%; top-50-trained, −9.0%; and unranked, +3.5%. Footer: “The Impact of Abortion Bans on the Physician Labor Market: Compositional and Pipeline Effects — Ethan Bergmann (2026).”

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Ethan Bergmann @ethanbergmann.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Updated draft: In June 2022, the Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court decision overturned Roe v. Wade, sending abortion regulation back to states. Within months, bans were enforced in some states while others expanded protections. I study how these bans affected the practice locations of OBGYNs. 🧵

Screenshot of front matter.

The Impact of Abortion Bans on the Physician Labor Market: Compositional and Pipeline Effects*

Ethan Bergmann†

August 28, 2026

[Most recent version here]

Abstract

I study the physician labor market after Dobbs, which allowed states to enforce abortion bans. I link quarterly obstetrician-gynecologist (OBGYN) locations to political contributions and use synthetic difference-in-differences to compare provider supply and migration between total-ban and abortion-protecting states. I find no aggregate supply decline. However, this stability masks compositional changes: relative per-capita supply falls for female, early-career, top-ranked, and Democratic-donating providers, while male and unranked supply increases. These shifts are more consistent with workforce entry and exit than migration by existing providers. Together, Dobbs polarized the U.S. OBGYN workforce, with implications for reproductive-care access and future supply.

JEL Codes: I11, I18, J44, J61
Keywords: abortion policy, physician labor markets, political sorting

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