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@eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social
504 followers 472 following 3.4K posts
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 16h
do you think Singh and Linzen are claiming otherwise?
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
it's variable selection im concerned about not df within model
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
yes that's why im saying this looks like garden of forking paths
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
given that fit we should expect a much larger deviation from the trend line than observed though? that is not a tight fit
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I didn't independently find brokenwheel through repost analysis. There's also a distinction between sources, boosters, and both (e.g. where Will S****** is reposted most by the network but doesn't repost them back). Just tryna be careful about agreement vs artificial boosting.
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
the last two are not sources, just boosters, they post no actual content but repost the main trios content aggressively yeah
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
other relevant accounts that are not as clearly part of a coordinated reposting network but tightly linked are vibecession forever, marbleliberal, kerravon, fascismheckler, and nutedawn
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
just look at counts of those accounts reposting each other's content for validation starting in Feb 2024 it is very blatant
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
he, Ellie, segfaultvicta, simon-blone, and gojira007 form a reposting network (simon mostly for mike and gojira mostly for ellie) that spreads anti-anti-transphobic, anti-anti-Israel, pro-establishment-D, and general left-punching content. This has existed since the bsky public launch in Feb 2024
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
what?
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sorry I meant why would i want an argument from someone incapable of making one
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
why?
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
what?
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
you haven't made an argument yet
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
he isn't *making* an argument in this thread, he is claiming his opponents aren't and that's false
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
blog.andymasley.com/p/why-i-beli... yes? wtf are you talking about?
blog.andymasley.com
PSJ on Andy Masley
Ok, so this essay is 5 completely independent arguments? 1. Cognition doesn't depend on phenomenal consciousness, so lacking P-consciousness is not an individually sufficient argument against all hyp...
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
he is acting like his objectors are responding to the argument he lays out in his first point. They are responding to his other argument. do you follow?
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
andy is the one claiming he only made one argument. i am just saying he didn't
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
also anita sarkeesian did not think more feminism in gaming was going to prevent the cornell 7 this is insane thinking
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
can you show me one person who thought not like us was gonna reduce child abuse or was about anything other than drake? be for fucking real
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
if earth had a thicc booty would it be oriented like *this* or like *this* 🤔
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Reposted by DJ
livia 🇵🇸 @livartz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
listening to dvorak. no clue how he played this on that weird keyboard
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I am actually curious (sorry for not being able to detach @s) what you qua being in privacy perceive MLPs to be doing? In my mind the answer is highly dependent on hidden layer dimension relative to I/O dimensions (background in comp psych/comp neuro)
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
too real honestly
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
your post specifically argues a different positive case that hypothetical machine ability to perform tasks similar to consciousness should make us more likely to believe current LLMs think and understand–a completely urelated and non sequitur argument. that's likely some cause of the confusion
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
grindset people now code alone 10 hours a day academics saying their network is their net worth what the hell
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
be careful, someone is going to call you a "folk-Cartesian" for this one fr fr
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
also your 4 million number *includes* bernie trump so you're the one who included them in the first place
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
you have not quantified the bernie or bust cohort at all! you're just doing implication!
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
sanders-didn't vote are also not mostly leftists and progressives! sanders stein is tiny!
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
My issue is you are misidentifying the quantity of actual progressives or leftists who abstained in 2016 and certainly there were very few in 2020 so why is it still your whipping horse because it clearly doesn't matter going forward unless you want to punch left which is worse for the party *now*
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
you keep saying "left abstainers" to describe socially conservative and crank independent primary voters in often open primaries in generally red states who make up the sanders trump cohort in 2016
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
do you have a source for this? my understanding is that 15% comes from exit polls (notoriously unreliable for self report) whle the higher estimate comes from voter rolls
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I don't think that's really right. Bernie 2016 had many more independents and social conservatives, 2020 was more progressives and leftists in his coalition. The change you are identifying is that leftists are strong party soldiers relative to, eg Clinton 2008 or independents and social cons
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
ok and 25% of clinton primary voters who voted in the general voted *for McCain*. All of these data points suggest that it is centrists and crank independents that swing against liberals, not progressives or leftists
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
This is a fully general way to say electing unpopular candidates in primaries that go on to lose is the fault of their more broadly popular opponents
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
that's not...that's not meaningful at all like how many *Clinton* primary voters didn't vote for Clinton in the general?
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
bernie or bust if even measureable is like what 5% the size of nader? 1%?
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
yoooo, but actually
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
ye
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I argued the only reasonable prior over the question insofar as it doesn't already encode your beliefs about the future is the Haldane prior. If it does encode your beliefs about the future you can't use it to update your own beliefs about the future. Really not that complicated, but idk
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
if there's no functional definition of "intelligence" of which to have a super amount, it's impossible to define a limit, though
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
between 2014 and 2024 each biased presidential and midterm underestimated Rs, that is the cause of the impression
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
the person I responded to specifically doesn't seem to think it was meaningless or an interruption and it is relevant to other conversations I have had with him
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
im not talking about capabilities
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I don't believe this is true, but I will consider it
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
ftr I'm talking about this refrain about "small community of experts" as a catch all rebuttal not this specific thread
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
this would be more convincing if they didn't self-select for specific beliefs. academic experts in the same field do not have the same unity of thought here
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
There is no utterance of any valence upon which you cannot find such a reading. That is the issue with this generality, anything all-encompassing and irrefutable is a natural law or logical tautology. The problem comes when you say "don't do a conservatism" when you can count everything as such
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DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
i am not death, illness, pestilence, or war
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