DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026it's variable selection im concerned about not df within model 010
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026yes that's why im saying this looks like garden of forking paths 110
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026given that fit we should expect a much larger deviation from the trend line than observed though? that is not a tight fit 100
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026I didn't independently find brokenwheel through repost analysis. There's also a distinction between sources, boosters, and both (e.g. where Will S****** is reposted most by the network but doesn't repost them back). Just tryna be careful about agreement vs artificial boosting. 120
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026the last two are not sources, just boosters, they post no actual content but repost the main trios content aggressively yeah 110
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026other relevant accounts that are not as clearly part of a coordinated reposting network but tightly linked are vibecession forever, marbleliberal, kerravon, fascismheckler, and nutedawn 010
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026just look at counts of those accounts reposting each other's content for validation starting in Feb 2024 it is very blatant 210
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026he, Ellie, segfaultvicta, simon-blone, and gojira007 form a reposting network (simon mostly for mike and gojira mostly for ellie) that spreads anti-anti-transphobic, anti-anti-Israel, pro-establishment-D, and general left-punching content. This has existed since the bsky public launch in Feb 2024 111
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Sorry I meant why would i want an argument from someone incapable of making one 100
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026he isn't *making* an argument in this thread, he is claiming his opponents aren't and that's false 100
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026blog.andymasley.com/p/why-i-beli... yes? wtf are you talking about?blog.andymasley.comPSJ on Andy MasleyOk, so this essay is 5 completely independent arguments? 1. Cognition doesn't depend on phenomenal consciousness, so lacking P-consciousness is not an individually sufficient argument against all hyp... 100
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026he is acting like his objectors are responding to the argument he lays out in his first point. They are responding to his other argument. do you follow? 100
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026andy is the one claiming he only made one argument. i am just saying he didn't 210
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026also anita sarkeesian did not think more feminism in gaming was going to prevent the cornell 7 this is insane thinking 000
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026can you show me one person who thought not like us was gonna reduce child abuse or was about anything other than drake? be for fucking real 110
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026if earth had a thicc booty would it be oriented like *this* or like *this* 🤔 000
Reposted by DJlivia 🇵🇸 @livartz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026listening to dvorak. no clue how he played this on that weird keyboard 07326
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026I am actually curious (sorry for not being able to detach @s) what you qua being in privacy perceive MLPs to be doing? In my mind the answer is highly dependent on hidden layer dimension relative to I/O dimensions (background in comp psych/comp neuro) 110
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026your post specifically argues a different positive case that hypothetical machine ability to perform tasks similar to consciousness should make us more likely to believe current LLMs think and understand–a completely urelated and non sequitur argument. that's likely some cause of the confusion 100
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026grindset people now code alone 10 hours a day academics saying their network is their net worth what the hell 121
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 02/10/2026be careful, someone is going to call you a "folk-Cartesian" for this one fr fr 040
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026also your 4 million number *includes* bernie trump so you're the one who included them in the first place 000
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026you have not quantified the bernie or bust cohort at all! you're just doing implication! 100
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026sanders-didn't vote are also not mostly leftists and progressives! sanders stein is tiny! 000
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026My issue is you are misidentifying the quantity of actual progressives or leftists who abstained in 2016 and certainly there were very few in 2020 so why is it still your whipping horse because it clearly doesn't matter going forward unless you want to punch left which is worse for the party *now* 000
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026you keep saying "left abstainers" to describe socially conservative and crank independent primary voters in often open primaries in generally red states who make up the sanders trump cohort in 2016 200
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026do you have a source for this? my understanding is that 15% comes from exit polls (notoriously unreliable for self report) whle the higher estimate comes from voter rolls 000
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I don't think that's really right. Bernie 2016 had many more independents and social conservatives, 2020 was more progressives and leftists in his coalition. The change you are identifying is that leftists are strong party soldiers relative to, eg Clinton 2008 or independents and social cons 110
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026ok and 25% of clinton primary voters who voted in the general voted *for McCain*. All of these data points suggest that it is centrists and crank independents that swing against liberals, not progressives or leftists 100
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026This is a fully general way to say electing unpopular candidates in primaries that go on to lose is the fault of their more broadly popular opponents 000
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026that's not...that's not meaningful at all like how many *Clinton* primary voters didn't vote for Clinton in the general? 200
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026bernie or bust if even measureable is like what 5% the size of nader? 1%? 100
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I argued the only reasonable prior over the question insofar as it doesn't already encode your beliefs about the future is the Haldane prior. If it does encode your beliefs about the future you can't use it to update your own beliefs about the future. Really not that complicated, but idk 110
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026if there's no functional definition of "intelligence" of which to have a super amount, it's impossible to define a limit, though 020
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026between 2014 and 2024 each biased presidential and midterm underestimated Rs, that is the cause of the impression 010
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026the person I responded to specifically doesn't seem to think it was meaningless or an interruption and it is relevant to other conversations I have had with him 010
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I don't believe this is true, but I will consider it 010
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026ftr I'm talking about this refrain about "small community of experts" as a catch all rebuttal not this specific thread 110
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026this would be more convincing if they didn't self-select for specific beliefs. academic experts in the same field do not have the same unity of thought here 230
DJ @eschaton-avoidance.bsky.social · 01/10/2026There is no utterance of any valence upon which you cannot find such a reading. That is the issue with this generality, anything all-encompassing and irrefutable is a natural law or logical tautology. The problem comes when you say "don't do a conservatism" when you can count everything as such 020