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Eric Van Rythoven

@ericvanr.bsky.social
608 followers 1.2K following 238 posts

Writing and teaching on security, diplomacy, and emotion in global politics.

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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 18h
More fuel for skepticism over any quick rebound in Canada-US relations. Even if Trump were gone tomorrow, many elites now hold similar beliefs and these are increasingly shared among the American public.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The conversation drew on my article on mockery in Global Studies Quarterly (@gsqjournal.bsky.social) which is open access. academic.oup.com/isagsq/artic...
academic.oup.com
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Happy to chat with CNN about mockery and the Canada-U.S. relationship for this article. www.cnn.com/2026/09/23/a...
cnn.com
Trump’s been lobbing insults at Canada’s leader for more than a year. Now Carney is hitting back | CNN
More than a year into Carney’s tenure, with trade talks once-again stalled and a flashy new alliance blooming with the European Union, the Canadian leader appears to be done taking the high road.
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Reposted by Eric Van Rythoven
Dr Bohdana Kurylo @bohdanakurylo.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Not every call for #peace challenges the politics of violence; some reinforce it. Our new article starts here: ‘Colonial and Anti-Colonial Discourses of Peace in the Russo-Ukrainian War’, by me, @kseniyaoksamytna.bsky.social & @yuliaioffe.bsky.social in International Affairs (@iajournal.bsky.social)
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
One piece I would really like to read is why Canadian Conservatives and UK Reform have both settled on leaders with very high unfavourability numbers.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
It is very telling that just as this administration is revoking temporary protected status for Haitian nationals and threatening deportation, it is also increasing federal funds to support white South African refugees.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
This is funny, because I just inserted you into a Canadian opinion piece. theconversation.com/mark-carneys...
theconversation.com
Mark Carney’s defiance: Canada shows the world how to respond to Donald Trump’s threats
Canada cannot match the U.S. economically, but it can make Donald Trump’s trade war politically costly as the U.S. heads toward midterm elections.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
www.cbc.ca/news/politic... Very interesting. If I had to speculate on the best possible outcome for Canada, it is that Trump becomes so rattled by the impact of the trade war on the midterms that he quickly walks his position back (similar to the Greenland climbdown), and creates space for a deal
cbc.ca
LeBlanc welcomes U.S. decision 'withdrawing positions' on language, culture in trade negotiations | CBC News
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc is hinting that a mutually beneficial trade agreement with our southern neighbours may still be possible after the U.S. rolled back its position on culture a...
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
My favorite example of this is the 24-year-old hedge fund AI investor who *literally* thought AI would enable people to buy *galaxies*. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/situ...
wsj.com
The Connections That Turned a Precocious Teen Into the Fallen ‘Nostradamus of AI’
A 24-year-old investor hailed as a visionary attracted billions—before turning into Wall Street’s latest cautionary tale.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
My latest on last weekend's trade talk blowup. theconversation.com/mark-carneys...
theconversation.com
Mark Carney’s defiance: Canada shows the world how to respond to Donald Trump’s threats
Canada cannot match the U.S. economically, but it can make Donald Trump’s trade war politically costly as the U.S. heads toward midterm elections.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Sure, here you go drive.google.com/file/d/1U3nr...
drive.google.com
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Extremely chuffed to be running a new course on the politics of disgust this fall.
A screen shot of a syllabus for the politics of disgust.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Rallies effects are largely triggered by the perception of aggression. In the Iran War, it was very difficult to argue Iran was aggressive. I think your argument hinges on how many Americans see a 500% fuel export tax as 'aggressive'. Canada cannot be afford to be seen as unduly aggressive.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Tangible costs already exist. There is an entire genre of reporting focused on how tariffs and boycotts hurt American business. But the perception of *responsibility* for those costs will shift if Canada engages in extreme retaliation.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
I think we see the American domestic context in the same way: Trump is a historically unpopular leader. The danger of using the nuclear option is that it triggers a rally-round the-flag effects. You may end inadvertently shoring up support for a weak leader.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
One more point to add: if Canada chooses the nuclear option right out of the gate, then there is no room to manage escalation. We've played our strongest card, and that's it. Better to try other measures, and save that card if all else fails.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
The duty of proportionality exists irrespective of the strategic calculus of the aggressor state. (Though I agree with your assessment of the Trump administration). *Some* Americans will blame Trump. For others, however, it will be shaped by the nature of Canada's response. 1/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Energy specific export taxes should be retained as a weapon of last resort. Finally, inflicting that much pain risks alienating the American public which is vital to countering the Trump admin.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
I get the reasoning, but a 500% export tax on oil would be a nuclear level response to a relatively low level trade conflict. Any self defense should be proportionate to the level of aggression, which is why dollar-for-dollar makes sense. 1/
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Reposted by Eric Van Rythoven
Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
I wanted to call this piece 'Trump's Dinky Deals', but my editor convinced me otherwise. /1 theconversation.com/donald-trump...
theconversation.com
Donald Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ means reneging on them. That’s why Canada cannot capitulate
Countries that sign deals with the Trump administration are quickly finding out that the stability and certainty they hoped to purchase was an illusion.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Something that didn't make it into the article: There is a real interesting symmetry between Canada and Iran right now. Both countries desperately need a deal with the United States. But, because of an untrustworthy and impulsive executive, any lasting deal will be difficult to achieve. /end
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
The danger for Canada is in making costly concessions for a deal with an extremely short shelf life. And even if a deal is reached, Trump may simply open up new fronts of coercive behaviour (e.g. the EU deal). /3
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Trump's latest tariff threat has reignited debates in Canada over a 'deal' with the United States, and what concessions Canada should make. The problem is that Trump's deals have a tendency to rapid collapse, sometimes lasting only weeks or days (or sometimes even only hours!). /2
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
I wanted to call this piece 'Trump's Dinky Deals', but my editor convinced me otherwise. /1 theconversation.com/donald-trump...
theconversation.com
Donald Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ means reneging on them. That’s why Canada cannot capitulate
Countries that sign deals with the Trump administration are quickly finding out that the stability and certainty they hoped to purchase was an illusion.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
One consistent feature of the Trump administration is that they love trade actions that *sound* devastating, but they often later qualify it because they don't want to pay the costs of said policy.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Yes. One of the greats, by a country mile. I would start with something shorter, like 'Cooling out the Mark' or 'Embarrassment and Social Organization'. Stigma is also an excellent entry point and one of his best books. Stay away from Frame Analysis...
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
One of the paradoxes of American politics is that they spend more on elections than any where else--by an enormous margin!--but still consistently suffer from low-quality leaders.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
For what its worth, I think many state leaders are increasingly wise to the dangers of X and Musk in particular. But leaving right now risks a fight with a U.S. government whose entire brand is vindictive retribution. Canada is in a similar boat. End/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The Trump admin has repeatedly threatened to retaliate against any government that regulates U.S. tech companies. The UK could certainly ban, or sharply regulate X, but this would almost certainly trigger American retaliation. And, without the protection of the EU, the UK is far more vulnerable 4/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The standard response is that Starmer is just a feckless leader who is unable to take decisive action to ban X, and won't stop using the platform. This is certainly true, but there is another factor: U.S. retaliation. 3/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
This is what I wrote about Musk's use of X, and its impact on UK politics in 2025. The strategy today is almost identical, including the involvement of Tommy Robinson. 2/
Consider the case of Musk’s role in the 2024 UK riots. In July accounts on X began to falsely claim that a Muslim refugee was responsible
for the murder of three young girls in the city of Southport. This triggered a series of far-right protests and violence across the country, some targeting mosques and hotels sheltering migrants. A key figure in mobilizing the protests was Stephen Yaxley-Lennon—also known as Tommy Robinson—the founder of the English Defence
League and a highly influential anti-Islam activist. Robinson was previously banned from Twitter for hateful conduct in 2018, but his account was reinstated by Musk’s amnesty policy. Robinson used his X account to stoke the riots by pushing anti-Muslim narratives to hundreds of thousands of followers, including claims that Muslim
asylum seekers were terrorists and rapists.
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
In my last article I made the argument that Musk uses X to portray liberal democracies as 'ugly' in order to sensitive audiences to ideological alternatives. One of the ways he does this is by casting countries like the UK as divided and on the precipice of a race war 1/
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Reposted by Eric Van Rythoven
Jared Wesley @jaredwesley.ca · 20/05/2026
Eight of us weigh in on the court's separatist petition ruling. thewalrus.ca/alberta-sepa...
thewalrus.ca
Can Alberta Still Separate? Experts Clash over the Landmark Court Decision | The Walrus
A cross-country panel debates one of the most consequential rulings in years
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
This seems especially silly given that the Canada hit 2% of GDP defence spending this year, spent a record amount in absolute dollars, and tabled budget with the largest increase in defence spending in recent memory.
thestar.com
U.S. says it’s pausing long-standing military board with Canada
The U.S. undersecretary of defence for policy said Monday
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
The point here is not that politeness is always bad (it's normally quite good!). Politeness is often a prerequisite to good faith dialogue and debate. But politeness can also inhibit us from speaking plainly, especially when the truth is ugly. There may be times when it is worth suspending. 5/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Part of the problem with the current reactionary moment is that we have deeply ingrained habits of politeness that inhibit us from speaking clearly and plainly about just how dire things actually are. Reactionaries, however, have no such restrictions. /4
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
We Trump starts an illegal war with Iran we say 'it's asymmetrical conflict which has the potential to erode international law'. We don't say 'it's a catastrophic disaster that will bring death, shame, and humiliation for years to come' because that would be impolite /3
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
When Trump calls a female reporter asking a legitimate question a "bitch", we either say nothing other at all (because its too vulgar to engage) or we say he has 'eccentric views on gender'. We don't say 'he's saying that because he has the mind of rapist and hates women' because that's impolite 2/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
3) Finally, if you are going to run the risk of retaliation, do it when the Trump admin is weak and distracted by crisis and scandal. End/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
I suggest 3 guideposts for managing retaliation. 1) Danger of retaliation is not constant. It's high when it touches on core interests, low when it forces unpopular positions. 2) Some policies are worth the risk of retaliation (e.g. diversifying trade with China). 8/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
The Trump admin's capacity for retaliation is weakening. Any act of retaliation (such as tariffs) requires political capital. Trump's stock is rapidly depleting. His polling is abysmal and mired in scandal. The Iran war is deeply unpopular. Losing the midterms could be an inflection point. 7/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
There are serious costs to reflexively letting retaliation drive Canadian foreign policy. Carney initially supported Trump's war with Iran, likely because of fears over retaliation. This turned out to be mistake triggering an embarrassing course change 6/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
On other things their capacity is v. low. Several states took legal action against Grok after the non-consensual sexual images of women and children. The admin threatened retaliation, but didn't follow through. Why? Doing so would amounted to a de facto defense of child pornography. 5/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Trump admin is commonly seen as all-powerful colossus capable of retaliating at will. This is a mistake. The admin's capacity for retaliation is unevenly distributed. On some things, their capacity for retaliation is v. high. E.g. confronting China still enjoy broad support and legitimacy. 4/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Retaliation in Canadian-U.S. policy used to be incredibly rare. What changed? 1) Rise of the Imperial Presidency and absence of checks on Exec. 2) Weakening of transnational coalitions (businesses averse to standing up to Trump) 3) Decline of shared diplo culture (diplomats gone in purges) 3/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
First, retaliation is a form of coercive diplomacy where a state responds to an action by by imposing painful costs. Retaliation can change behaviour, but so too can the threat of retaliation. Right now, the threat of American retaliation is increasingly shaping Canadian policy debates 2/
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
I have a short piece on how Canada should think about retaliation in the age of Trump. TLDR: the threat of retaliation is increasingly driving Canadian policy decisions, but we think about retaliation in overly simplistic ways. I offer some correctives. 1/ policyoptions.irpp.org/2026/04/cana...
policyoptions.irpp.org
The threat of Trump retaliation: how Canada should respond
U.S. leverage is real but uneven. Three guideposts help policymakers assess risk, timing and strategic trade-offs.
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Kandida Purnell @kandidapurnell.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
'Contested Body Counts, a Missing Airman, and the (Necro)Politics of America's War in Iran' - a new blog from me now published by @ecprtheloop.bsky.social ! theloop.ecpr.eu/contested-bo...
theloop.ecpr.eu
Contested body counts, a missing airman, and the (necro)politics of America’s war in Iran
The recent rescue of a US airman from Iranian soil obscures a deeper truth. As contested casualty figures emerge from America’s war, Kandida Purnell argues that what we see, count, and mourn in war is never neutral. Rather, it is carefully governed through a longstanding necropolitical logic that shapes public perception and sustains conflict
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Eric Van Rythoven @ericvanr.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Congratulations! Looks great,
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lauren @lauren.rotatingsandwiches.com · 26/03/2026
war_iran_final-blow_v1.pdf war_iran_final-final-blow-v2.pdf war_iran_final-blow-no edits.pdf war_iran_final-blow-no edits (1).pdf war_iran_final-blow-no edits (1) APPROVED.pdf IRANWARPLANSFINALFINALFINAL.pdf IRANWARPLANSFINALFINALFINAL (1).pdf
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