iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Elliot Turner

Gaius (from Tribunate) @gaius.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

It’s really funny that all of these guys would tell you with a straight face that they have read Meditations 1000 times

It is 100% true that great men and women of the past were not sitting around moaning about their feelings. I regret nothing.

Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Where I can be wrong: the regime might be more concerned with revenge than self-preservation. Wars are dynamic and events can snowball out of control even if both sides intents are well bounded.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

To sum up: there is a two week window for Iran to use the Straight of Hormuz as a stranglehold to try and survive this war and get some guarantees on its own security going forward. If and when this window shuts, Iran can lose all that leverage.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

It is not in Iran’s own interests to keep the Straight closed for too long. After all, their critical infrastructure resides largely on the wrong side of the closure and there could be other forms of blowback.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

A long-term move around the straight would undermine Iran’s geopolitical leverage in 5-10 years timeframe, which is an eternity today, but something a regime concerned w/ perpetual preservation might consider too big a risk.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Long-term: Persian Gulf neighbors can invest in projects like the Salman Canal and more pipelines to reroute around the Straight of Hormuz. Iran has threatened such a move would be an “act of war”; however, so too is strangling neighbors like this and bombing them.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Short-term 2: The US could send troops to occupy a buffer around the straight or take out the regime entirely. No one wants this on either side. The regime in Iran’s foremost interest is likely self-preservation.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Short-term 1: US is deploying, with the help of Ukraine, robust anti-drone defenses which could severely undermine Iran’s asymmetric capabilities. This would open the door to the US Navy escorting oil through. That would drop Iran’s leverage to end attacks to near 0.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

This is a high wire act and a prisoner’s dilemma. It gives Iran a window to negotiate, but that leverage can backfire in two ways short-term and several ways longer-term.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

With atrophying capabilities, Iran has to increasingly rely on asymmetric warfare. The more desperate the regime gets, the more risk they are willing to take.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Why two weeks? Iran has blown through much of its arsenal in the earlygoing and its capabilities have been severely degraded. understandingwar.org/research/mid...

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Strangling the Straight of Hormuz is a nuclear option in the absence of actual nuclear weapons and it has a fairly short half life. I think in this case, it’s about two weeks.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Of note: Iran has only dropped about 10 mines, not a full mining of the straight signaling they do not want a prolonged closure here, but they want the world to know they need to survive for this stranglehold to end).

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Some caveats: I’m a business analyst and not a geopol expert, though I studied this stuff in college and geopolitics is part of what inspired my interest in markets and vice versa.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

My hypothesis: Iran right now is at their point of maximum leverage. This window lasts about two weeks and in that time the regime there needs and can get a deal that ensures its survival.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

This is an Iran thread. I want to push back at the Twitter narrative re: the Hormuz situation–that things are spiraling out of control & Iran is gaining the upper hand by strangling the US economy.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Love how the MS PT on WDAY is $185 now but they're equal weight. Their avg buy rated stock has way less upside.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

This is the problem for every AI narrative. Nothing is falsifiable. People can just say stuff so the fear compounds. I've been vibe coding, it's amazing. I'm doing things I never dreamed I could, but many of these alleged changes aren't going to happen. Some will though!

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

AMZN, META, GOOG, MSFT combined capex is ~2.2% of GDP. Railroad investment averaged 2.4% for the Gilded Age and peaked between 6-10% depending on estimates. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Super intersting on the EPA mandated transition. Over what kind of time period will that play out? When did that start? TY!!!

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

In person entertainment and experiences for what AI can't remove labor certainly comes to mind. Part of the allure w MIPS for me. Participation in outdoors generally going up, alongside awareness for safety. Lifesci/biotech IMO will be a massive beneficiary of AI. Eroom's law might finally die.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

Ah we've ordered from 4imprint and I get their catalogs and some samples every year. The corporate gifting market is a good one!

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

I don't know it, what's the quick pitch?thank you!

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Reposted by Elliot Turner

Mike @mtannenbaum.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

I think a follow up question would be in what business interactions, workflows or decisions can people not be removed by AI? 1. Physical Retail, 2. Health Care, 3. Companies that supply hardware and services bundled with software.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Do they compete with mainly local printing/marketing cos on that front? How fragmented is the market?

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Wow very interesting, I had almost forgotten this existed!!!

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Reposted by Elliot Turner

Alex Rubalcava @alexrubalcava.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

One I like that I haven’t seen written up anywhere is $CMPR. Coming off a big surge in capex for unified software back-end across acquired brands, and physical capex to produce “elevated” custom products. Not just biz cards.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

The next closest is Ghost who has been stuck in mud at 3% share despite KDP acquiring and investing in it. Bloom is the only smaller brand growing swiftly, but $ share is not even 2% yet. It sure does seem to be stabilzing as an industry.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Happy to hear it Alex and great to hear from you! Just like the good ole days of Fintwit!!!

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Koroyd is the key to that lawsuit, FYI. Beyond helmets, Koroyd expands TAM to safety more broadly, including body protection as well as functional performance for snow/splitboards, etc. At this valuation, for top line that in worst case should do 15% 5 year CAGR at 50% contribution margins, I like!

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

RLS is a perceived but not true threat which chopped >30% off MIPS mkt cap. No one wants single use, especially in skiing, partners don't want to retool for the outer shell and now w/ MIPS owning Koroyd they can build an integration rotational & linear protection system that is superior.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Second is $MIPS - SE. Protect your head! 16x EV/EBITDA on '27 estimates. Litigation for a "partner" scared people last year and analysts are assuming some degree of recurrence. We think we have evidence that it's settled & is actually hugely benificial to MIPS.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

I'll kick if off with $CELH that I recently presented at Manual of Ideas Best Ideas 2026 conference www.latticework.com/p/celsius-ca...

latticework.com

Celsius: Capitalizing on the “Better-For-You” Shift in Energy Drinks

Presentation at Best Ideas 2026

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

It really feels like growth that's completely untethered to AI (whether vulnerable to or benefitting from) should be valued at a premium today. With that said, I'm curious what you all think are your favorite growth cos that fit the bill? I will share a few later in the day.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Please feel free to chime in by responding to these tweets with any thoughts or comments. I hope you all enjoy!

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

In August 2011 I interviewed Justin shortly after the Flash Crash and we had a fascinating conversation that beautifully withstands the test of time. dropbox.com/scl/fi/681c2ecg9s6howf0picj0/Justin-Fox-Interview-August-2011.pdf?rlkey=kx6xu1du455k4zk28y6rbtrvp&st=9ixb05g4&dl=0

dropbox.com

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

It's an AI podcast where we don't talk about whether AI is in a bubble! I loved recording this episode with @AskeladdenTX for how thoughtful Samir is and how much I learned on deploying AI in the investment process. Must listen material here: twiii.podbean.com/e/samir-pate...

twiii.podbean.com

Samir Patel on Using AI Intelligently Within the Investment Process | This Week in Intelligent Investing

In this episode, co-hosts Elliot Turner and John Mihaljevic welcome Samir Patel, the founder and portfolio manager of Askeladden Capital, a long-only small/micro-cap value investing firm based in the ...

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

Yeah you read that right, @pcordway was back on the pod and didn't miss a beat! We cover a range of developments in markets over the past year and try to put the weirdness and absurdities in context. Go listen and let us know what you think! twiii.podbean.com/e/phil-ordwa...

twiii.podbean.com

Phil Ordway on the Market Environment, Red Flags, Opportunities, and More | This Week in Intelligent Investing

In this episode, co-hosts Elliot Turner and John Mihaljevic are delighted to welcome back former co-host Phil Ordway for a lively discussion of the current market environment, the craziness we've seen...

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Funding might actually INCREASE for spend at tools companies

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

$TECH giving a real-time update on NIH-backed spend trends

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Yes!!! Love that example. Litho, filters, chemicals all with common histories. Fwiw I find RVTY very interesting.

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Elliot Turner @elliotturn.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Incredible new episode w Doug O'Laughlin of @_fabknowledge_ and @SemiAnalysis_!! On how the semi industry is leading AI forward, an intriguing investment opp in the newest bottleneck for the industry & the deep recession in the non-AI semi world. twiii.podbean.com/e/special-do...

twiii.podbean.com

SPECIAL: Doug O'Laughlin on the Semiconductor Industry Dynamics and Outlook | This Week in Intelligent Investing

In this episode, co-hosts Elliot Turner and John Mihaljevic welcome Doug O'Laughlin, President of SemiAnalysis and founder of Fabricated Knowledge. Doug shares his wisdom on the state of the semicondu...

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