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Michael McDonald

@electproject.bsky.social
133K followers 269 following 8.6K posts

Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida specializing in American elections

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 10h
#earlyvote evening update 10/2: at least 1,090,946 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
election.lab.ufl.edu
UF Election Lab: 2026 General Election Early Vote Statistics
Live national and state-by-state early voting statistics for the 2026 general election.
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Allison Gill @muellershewrote.com · 13h
BREAKING: A while back, I sued DOGE (FOIA) to get Musk's communications. DOJ argued that Musk wasn't a govt employee anymore, BUT Hegseth just hired him again to work on a Pentagon warfare initiative called Project Meridian. So we noticed Judge Boasberg. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
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The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 10h
A former Florida congressman and political mentor to Secretary of State Marco Rubio was sentenced to a decade in federal prison for his role in a secret $50 million campaign to lobby officials in Washington on behalf of the Venezuelan government.
washingtonpost.com
Ex-congressman and Rubio ally gets 10 years for secret Venezuela lobbying
Former congressman David Rivera (R-Florida) maintained that, despite a $50 million lobbying contract from Venezuela’s government, he advocated for the removal of President Nicolás Maduro.
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NPR @npr.org · 11h
Florida is updating its science standards with evolution and climate change almost entirely absent from a new proposal.  The state will now seek public input on the revision. (via @cfpublicmedia.bsky.social) n.pr/4iW2Kh4
n.pr
Florida’s proposed science standards sideline evolution and climate change
The Florida Department of Education released its first comprehensive rewrite of science learning standards in nearly two decades, with the last one adopted in 2008.
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Dhruv Mehrotra @dmehro.bsky.social · 13h
NEW: DHS agents tracked people observing ICE arrests, photographed them, ran their plates, pulled personal information, and added them to a Palantir database, according to newly unsealed court filings. w/ @regret.bsky.social
wired.com
ICE Has Been Dumping Protester Photos Into a Palantir Database
DHS agents not only tracked and intimidated people observing ICE activity in Maine, but stored information about them in a Palantir-built database, newly unsealed court filings say.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 15h
Charlie Cook doesn't think CO, GA, MN, NC, and VA are battleground states. They're Democratic by his cherry picking definition of states
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 16h
Latinos have the lowest turnout and have turned on Trump. I would guess the difference between likely and reg voters is largely driven by that dynamic.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 16h
The solid blue state of •checks notes• North Carolina
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 17h
Welcome Connecticut to the early vote tracker 🥳
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 19h
#earlyvote morning update 10/2: at least 1 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
election.lab.ufl.edu
UF Election Lab: 2026 General Election Early Vote Statistics
Live national and state-by-state early voting statistics for the 2026 general election.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 20h
As always, the tell that Trump is lying is "Sir" That, and he opened his mouth
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Sam Bagenstos @sbagen.bsky.social · 23h
More confirmation that the Trump Administration is staying underground with its anti-abortion plans until after the midterms. www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/ab...
washingtonsun.com
White House Officials Told the DOJ to Delay Action on Abortion Ahead of the Midterms
Attorney General Todd Blanche has moved slowly in abortion pill litigation and department officials have told advocates to wait until after the election.
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Reuters @reuters.com · 23h
An analysis of voting equipment in Puerto Rico grew into a US federal effort spanning multiple agencies to find proof voting machines were manipulated to flip votes in the 2020 election, Reuters found. The probe ultimately found found no evidence votes were manipulated reut.rs/4hHBkcA
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
MLB decided the Tomb of the Unknown Solider provides a better backdrop?
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
When will Andy Kaufman take off his Trump suit and reveal he's performed the greatest long-con joke in history?
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
algae not guilty, darth
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The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 02/10/2026
President Trump’s immigration crackdown is showering money on local police departments willing to help. One sheriff’s office in Florida is eligible to receive $14.5 million for seven arrests.
on.wsj.com
Exclusive | Police Score Big With Little Work in Trump’s Immigration Crackdown
The Department of Homeland Security pays local agencies as much as $2 million for each arrest in a nationwide task force.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I suspect we'll top 1 million voted tomorrow...
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
#earlyvote evening update 10/1: at least 849,491 people have voted in the 2026 general election election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
election.lab.ufl.edu
UF Election Lab: 2026 General Election Early Vote Statistics
Live national and state-by-state early voting statistics for the 2026 general election.
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Reposted by Michael McDonald
The New Republic @newrepublic.com · 01/10/2026
The Trump administration has moved to cripple Title IX protections against sexual assault and harassment on the same day New York prosecutors reopened the investigation into heinous allegations of a fraternity gang rape at Cornell University. trib.al/QewniBV
trib.al
Trump Weakens Title IX Rules Amid Cornell Gang Rape Investigation
The Education Department has just weakened protections for sexual assault victims in schools.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
My man looks like he is the lead singer of They Might Be Micro
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Republican campaign consultants are begging Trump to continue to ban CNN to keep Trump off the air
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
For your consideration: the 30% who still support Trump
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 01/10/2026
Cornell University police in 2024 summarized hours of interviews with a woman who said she was attacked in the Chi Phi fraternity house into a document that excluded her unequivocal statement that she had been raped, documents show. A prosecutor did not pursue criminal charges based on the document.
nytimes.com
Statement Written by Police in Cornell Assault Case Omitted Her Claim She Was Raped
Documents obtained by The New York Times show that the campus police at Cornell University sent a condensed statement to a prosecutor, who then declined to bring charges.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
A reminder the election handicappers delay race rating changes and release them piecemeal to drive their content. They should be considered lagging, not forward, indicators
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John Light @johnalight.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The DOJ is reviewing "whether the special prosecutor’s office that investigated the famed Watergate break-in committed misconduct, according to people familiar with the matter, more than half a century after that scandal led to Nixon’s resignation."
wsj.com
Exclusive | Decades After Watergate, Justice Department Reviews Whether Nixon Got a Raw Deal
A revisionist historian went to the DOJ headquarters to present his case that the former president and his associates weren’t treated fairly.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Bundling subscriptions would be an interesting direction to go
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Craig Pittman @craigtimes.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#Florida county discovers 11 mysterious Flock cameras with no obvious owner, much to the dismay of residents. wapo.st/4ACHFOZ via @alexldeluca21.bsky.social
wapo.st
Florida county discovers mysterious Flock cameras with no obvious owner
Officials say they don’t know who installed the controversial cameras or how the data was being used. Residents are unnerved.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Eric Schmitt's mission to deflect Jack Smith's testimony away from Trump's criminality was a success
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
You may say that Trump may still try to disrupt the election. Well, I don't know how many times we've seen "Trump say" something and it turn out not to be true. That's not to say we shouldn't be vigilant -- any many organizations are -- but that the "Trump says" is an intended disruption unto itself
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The good news story so far is the election is running as normal. Mail ballots are traversing the postal system. No federal troops are reported at in-person early voting locations Early voting is the canary in the coal mine and the canary is singing!
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
We're over 800,000 voted 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
election.lab.ufl.edu
UF Election Lab: 2026 General Election Early Vote Statistics
Live national and state-by-state early voting statistics for the 2026 general election.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#earlyvote morning update 10/1: at least 770,648 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
election.lab.ufl.edu
UF Election Lab: 2026 General Election Early Vote Statistics
Live national and state-by-state early voting statistics for the 2026 general election.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Voter ernthusiasm among conflicted Republicans
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
There's a strong argument (backed by polling) that exceptionally high turnout will benefit Republicans in that Republicans who have disapproval of Trump will start coming out to vote for Republican candidates. There's a tipping point where higher turnout works against Democrats
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I updated that. The first files I received only had ballot return data, no request data. Just hadn't fixed that note.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I can't help what facts tell us. There is a clear positive correlation between having a statewide election and not having one
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Even uncompetitive statewide elections tend to induce higher turnout. You can see this in similar states lacking a statewide election in the past
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
2022 is not a great comparison because there was no Virginia statewide election (US Senate) that year. Statewide elections tend to be the primary turnout driver
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Thanks. I see it now. Still think they used my topline number. I exchange statistics with AP but I made updates last night that pushed the national tally over 690K. I don't think that information would have been in the AP system yet since their folks were at home
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Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
We are paying CNN and MS NOW to run ads for Donald Trump right before the midterms. You and I are paying for them. And CNN and MS NOW are taking the cash while their hosts and guests say the scheme is illegal. That is the current state of corporate media in America.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I will likely be a step or two ahead of reporting since I'm processing data as quickly as I can
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
That must be behind the paywall link. I don't have a CNN subscription
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Of course, why read CNN when you can get the numbers directly from the source? election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
election.lab.ufl.edu
UF Election Lab: 2026 General Election Early Vote Statistics
Live national and state-by-state early voting statistics for the 2026 general election.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Huh. @cnn.com is reporting early voting numbers consistent with my tally as of last night. They do not provide their data source. Using my work without reasonable attribution is a violation of my creative commons license www.cnn.com/2026/10/01/p...
cnn.com
Early voting data shows emerging signs of a Democratic advantage in the midterms | CNN Politics
Election Day is still a month away, but more than 550,000 Americans have already voted across 29 states. There are signs emerging of the advantage Democrats have in motivating their voters – a trend t...
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The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 01/10/2026
House lawmakers spent $6.7 million of taxpayer money on meals and lodging last year — a 21 percent increase over 2024 — under a reimbursement program that doesn’t require them to provide receipts, a Post analysis found. Here’s who spent the most in 2025: wapo.st/47r8qsl
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Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
CNN and MS NOW are complicit in Trump’s illegal scheme to steal taxpayer money for political ads. Why are they accepting stolen money to run illegal ads?
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
November is coming for Republicans
static.klipy.com
Winter Is Coming
ALT: Winter Is Coming
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Trump below freezing
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Susan Rinkunas @susanrinkunas.com · 30/09/2026
To recap: three GOP-led states that wanted the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade in order to "send abortion back to the states" are now asking the Court to strike down abortion protections in blue states
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