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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

For your enjoyment, I created a "Fast Stats" tab on the #earlyvote tracker that has comparable mail ballot return rates for registered Democrats and Republicans where I have party reg data election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

An enterprising reporter may wish to find out why Baltimore City is reporting only 11 mail ballots returned elections.maryland.gov/press_room/i...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Gallup reporting D+11 in self-reported party id in latest 2026 Q3 release news.gallup.com/poll/654560/...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

#earlyvote evening update 9/29: at least 537,311 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

#earlyvote morning update 9/29: over half a million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

#earlyvote evening update 9/28: at least 400,020 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

#earlyvote midday update 9/28: at least 383,781 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

#earlyvote update 9/27: at least 334,753 people have voted in the 2026 general election election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

#earlyvote morning update 9/26: at least 325,678 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

#earlyvote evening update 9/25: at least 289,074 people have voted in the 2026 general election election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Here's NJ. You can see in the tossup CD 7 the mail ballot return rate is exceeding the state rate, and registered Republicans are returning their ballots at a slightly higher rate than Democrats. Tom Kean Jr. is probably happy about that election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

#earlyvote morning update 9/25: at least 282,490 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

#earlyvote evening update 9/24: at least 235,006 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It is a federal crime to deploy "armed troops or men at any place where a general or special election is held." Those who do "shall be fined...or imprisoned not more than five years, or both; and be disqualified from holding any office...under the United States." www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The national map is starting to fill out nicely

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The League of Assholes is falling apart Trump Gets Caught in a Dilemma Over a Saudi Plea for Military Help www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/u...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

If I ran a poll with 94% of my registered voters sample saying they would vote (tbf 1% said they didn't know if they would vote and 5% said they wouldn't), I'd seriously question the reliability of my poll and the likely voter screen I'll be using closer to November

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Vermont has made it a state crime with the penalty: "shall be imprisoned not more than 15 years or fined not more than $10,000.00, or both" for sharing their voter file with a federal agency

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Two key tables from the new Marquette University poll show that Republicans are less enthusiastic to vote than Democrats, and that Trump is pulling down Republican enthusiasm. This dynamic will determine how big the coming Blue Wave will be

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

BREAKING: Motley Lüe will no longer be opening for Ed Sheeran

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Trump could have issued his executive order on mail balloting any time over the second term of his presidency. He chose to delay in an attempt to coerce the courts to bend to his will by not giving them enough time to issue rulings. Every accusation is an admission

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Vote buying is also illegal under federal law 18 U.S.C. 597. Note that just making this offer is a violation of federal law, so Trump is committing a crime in just making this statement, as is true in many states

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

How about fanny packs? Are they allowed?

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

It is still very early in early voting. I'd like more data before drawing conclusions. There can be strange reporting patterns in small N so I'm posting this primarily to head off wild speculation. That said, if this NC mail ballot return rate by party reg among Republicans continues that will be 👀

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

I think we can call NC's elections. lol election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Coming tomorrow: North Carolina sends out mail ballots

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Look, if you're going to make a big deal out of "Dolly" know that the storm will likely dissipate before it reaches the Caribbean and will bring some much-needed rain to drought-stricken Puerto Rico

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Who wore it better? www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Negative correlation between % Donalds vote and % Republican primary turnout (as percent of Republican Party Registration). I don't think all Florida Republicans are particularly into Donalds for some reason and will be interesting to see if they show up for him in the general

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

There's a Florida saying "you have to go North to go South" Donalds won the Republican Gov. primary with less than 50% of the vote. There are North Florida counties where he came in third. I wonder why And I wonder why there is no breathless national media coverage of the reason

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Trump is wearing a tribute to Florida on the back of his head

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The election was rigged, obviously 🙄

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Subscribers will flee the Washington Post if their editorial board becomes MAGA (oh wait, that already happened)

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

The FBI will not disclose the "seven" states' water systems affected by likely Iranian hacking so that Trump can blame a blue state to deflect responsibility for a foreign government attack on Americans www.fbi.gov/investigate/...