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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo

@edualastrue.bsky.social
232 followers 308 following 63 posts

Climate Modelling 🌐 | Ocean Circulation / AMOC 🌊 | Extremes 🔥❄️ Postdoc @esrah.uni-hamburg.de (he/him) edualas.github.io

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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
#EGU26 is around the corner, and I'm super excited to convene the first session dedicated only to AMOC changes & impacts 🌊🌍 Check out our fantastic line of oral and poster presentations, including our invited speaker @froeltho.bsky.social: www.egu26.eu/session/57485
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Thanks a lot to @qiyunma.bsky.social, @felixschaumann.bsky.social, Maya Ben-Yami, Amber Boot, Wei Liu, @moniionita.bsky.social , Katinka Bellomo, & Oliver Mehling, for making this session possible! 🤗 See you in Vienna next week! 🌞
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
#EGU26 is around the corner, and I'm super excited to convene the first session dedicated only to AMOC changes & impacts 🌊🌍 Check out our fantastic line of oral and poster presentations, including our invited speaker @froeltho.bsky.social: www.egu26.eu/session/57485
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Felix Schaumann @felixschaumann.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
🌊 Finally, there will be an #EGU26 session about the AMOC! Specifically, about the impacts of AMOC weakening, very broadly defined - from paleo to the future, form observations to modelling, from physics to economics, ... Please do submit - Looking forward to a great session 😊 More details 👇
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Andrew King (he/him) @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
New paper exploring regional and local changes post-net zero and who would experience significant changes. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... Thanks to co-authors @edualastrue.bsky.social Amanda Maycock, Tilo Ziehn @sclark.bsky.social @alexborowiak.bsky.social @nicolamaher.bsky.social
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Detectability of Post‐Net Zero Climate Changes and the Effects of Delay in Emissions Cessation
We examine detectability of global, regional and local climate change measures using millennial-scale net zero CO2 emissions simulations Detectable changes under net zero are found in temperature...
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
We tested variations to those, with the effect by 2100 still ranging between 5-15 PgC. Also, the changes in the yearly uptake were not limited by atmospheric CO2, showing independence from the amount of emissions across a range of pathways
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Fully agree on the AMOC relevance for ocean carbon uptake! However, our estimation of the potential AMOC weakening carbon-uptake effect this century is one order of magnitude smaller, i.e. ~10 PgC. Still, this would have important climatic and economic implications... www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Weakening AMOC reduces ocean carbon uptake and increases the social cost of carbon | PNAS
A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been found to be globally beneficial by economic assessments. This result...
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Planning to attend #EGU26? Interested in the impacts of AMOC weakening? New session alert! 🚨🌊🧪 ITS2.5/CL0.5: "AMOC impacts: physical, biogeochemical, and societal" Check out our interdisciplinary session description & submit your abstract here: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
Poster advertising EGU26 session ITS2.5/CL0.5, titled "AMOC impacts: Physical, Biogeochemical, and Societal"
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
I convene this session together with @felixschaumann.bsky.social, Maya Ben Yami, Amber Boot, & Oliver Mehling, so please ask any of us if you have questions! 😊
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
We welcome contributions from very broad AMOC impact types (physical, biogeochemical, or socioeconomic), timescales (paleoclimate, recent past, future projections), forcings (variability, forced trends, abrupt/tipping) & tools (Earth System/regional/simple/economic models, reanalyses/observations) 🧪
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Planning to attend #EGU26? Interested in the impacts of AMOC weakening? New session alert! 🚨🌊🧪 ITS2.5/CL0.5: "AMOC impacts: physical, biogeochemical, and societal" Check out our interdisciplinary session description & submit your abstract here: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
Poster advertising EGU26 session ITS2.5/CL0.5, titled "AMOC impacts: Physical, Biogeochemical, and Societal"
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
It was a privilege to attend the Overshoot Conference at @iiasa.ac.at! We had really insightful interdisciplinary sessions on such a fundamental challenge for climate science and policy. Lots of food for thought & work to do! 💡 Also, I'm really grateful to have received the Poster Prize Award! 🏅😊
Poster prize winners on stage at the Overshoot Conference
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
🚨 Interested in climate futures under net-zero emissions? Check out our new ESD Ideas paper! In the paper, we discuss what the Earth system modelling community can do to improve the understanding of long-term post-net-zero changes 🌍💻 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
esd.copernicus.org
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making
Abstract. Climate changes under net zero emissions will take many centuries to play out, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and in the ocean and cryosphere. New millennial-length Earth System Mod...
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
The paper was led by @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and included @climatenerilie.bsky.social & Tilo Ziehn 👏🏻
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
🚨 Interested in climate futures under net-zero emissions? Check out our new ESD Ideas paper! In the paper, we discuss what the Earth system modelling community can do to improve the understanding of long-term post-net-zero changes 🌍💻 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
esd.copernicus.org
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making
Abstract. Climate changes under net zero emissions will take many centuries to play out, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and in the ocean and cryosphere. New millennial-length Earth System Mod...
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
The conference was a great mix between theoretical, modelling, and observational approaches in understanding the role of the ocean in the climate system, as we celebrate the MPI-M 50th anniversary! mpimet.mpg.de/en/communica...
mpimet.mpg.de
CELLO: Climate Exploration in Lively Liaison with the Ocean
From September 16 to 18, 2025, around 220 ocean researchers have met at the CELLO conference organized by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The contributions covered a wide range of spatial sc...
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
I was very happy to attend the Cello conference in Hamburg this week! 🌊
Photo of the Bucerius Law School buildingPicture of the keynote presentation by Jochem Marotzke at the CELLO conference
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
ESRAH University of Hamburg @esrah.uni-hamburg.de · 15/07/2025
One day full of scientific discourse and networking: We used our time at the CLICCS Retreat last week to share the latest research and gather our forces for the next funding phase. Also, we honored our new Köppen Award Winner Youssef Ibrahim - congratulations!
A group photo of all participants.
Photo: Laura BertaGrischa Perino and Leonard Borchert giving a talk on their project.Youssef Ibrahim is honored with the Köppen Award.
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Andrew King (he/him) @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
In our new paper we discuss how communication of post-net zero climate changes needs to improve and go much further than global average temperature @chrisd-jones.bsky.social @sarahinscience.bsky.social @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Enhancing communication of climate changes under net zero emissions - Communications Earth & Environment
Much of the public discourse around climate changes under net zero carbon dioxide emissions has been focused on global mean temperature changes after emissions cessation. More attention needs to be pa...
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
New paper alert! 🚨🧪🌊 Do you wonder how Southern Ocean sea ice changes decades after the AMOC substantially weakens? 🧊 Check out our new @jgroceans.bsky.social paper, amazingly led by Rachel Diamond from the @bas.ac.uk doi.org/10.1029/2024... Here is a quick summary 🧵 (1/n)
doi.org
A Weakened AMOC Could Cause Southern Ocean Temperature and Sea‐Ice Change on Multidecadal Timescales
We present the first CMIP6 multi-model intercomparison of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening impacts on Southern Ocean (SO) temperatures and sea ice Increased southwards heat t...
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Overall, while the multidecadal changes found here would be smaller than the direct effects from global warming, our study highlights how many of these changes are significant and consistent among different models, while emphasising the global reach of AMOC impacts 💡 (5/5)
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
We find, as expected, that a weaker AMOC leads to a buildup of heat in the Southern Ocean, warmer temperatures and sea-ice loss 🌡️ More surprisingly, we identify a new tropical-Antarctic atmospheric teleconnection, which explains why there is cooling and sea-ice growth in the Weddell Sea 🏝️🧊 (4/n)
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
We use the simulations we previously introduced in the NAHosMIP, a multi-model intercomparison of freshwater hosing experiments 🚿 This hosing induces an idealised AMOC weakening so that we can calibrate and separate AMOC impacts doi.org/10.5194/gmd-... (3/n)
doi.org
Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project
Abstract. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system. The AMOC is predicted to weaken under climate change; however, theories suggest that it may...
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
While several studies have investigated the Southern Ocean response to AMOC changes, the multidecadal Antarctic sea-ice response is still unknown ❓ We investigate Southern Ocean sea ice & temperature changes, along with changes in many drivers, such as heat transport or circulation changes 🔎 (2/n)
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
New paper alert! 🚨🧪🌊 Do you wonder how Southern Ocean sea ice changes decades after the AMOC substantially weakens? 🧊 Check out our new @jgroceans.bsky.social paper, amazingly led by Rachel Diamond from the @bas.ac.uk doi.org/10.1029/2024... Here is a quick summary 🧵 (1/n)
doi.org
A Weakened AMOC Could Cause Southern Ocean Temperature and Sea‐Ice Change on Multidecadal Timescales
We present the first CMIP6 multi-model intercomparison of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening impacts on Southern Ocean (SO) temperatures and sea ice Increased southwards heat t...
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
📝 Check out this Kudos summary of our recent ERL study on European heat extremes in long-term net-zero emissions futures! 🧪 link.growkudos.com/1pm179ta9kw
link.growkudos.com
Delayed Net Zero Emissions Intensify Long-term European Heat
While the intensity of European heat extremes may remain elevated for centuries under net-zero emissions, delays in emissions reduction will result in even more intense and frequent heat extremes, und...
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
ESRAH University of Hamburg @esrah.uni-hamburg.de · 04/06/2025
🌡️ Europe’s #heat extremes won’t stop, even at net-zero. Each year of delay locks in hotter and more frequent extremes for centuries. Mediterranean heatwaves could even be 30x more likely if the Paris Agreement is reached ten years late. 🧪 iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... @edualastrue.bsky.social‬
A photo of the lead researcher Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo and a quote: “The bad news: Even if we were to stop emitting greenhouse gases immediately, extreme heat in Europe would continue to occur. The good news: The sooner we achieve net-zero emissions, the sooner we can prevent extremes from getting even hotter for centuries to come. Every year counts.”
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
Fantastic colloquium today by @eleanorfrajka.bsky.social on the state of knowledge of AMOC observations 🌊 It’s incredible & fascinating how far the field got in the last 20 years 💡 But also, how much there is left to understand & the need for more collaborative AMOC community 🤝
Picture of Colloquium “Changing currents, two decades of observing the AMOC”
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
🚨 New paper alert! 🧪 🔥 How would heat extremes in Europe evolve under long-term net-zero emissions? Find out in our ERL article, co-written with @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and Tilo Tiehn iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... Here’s a quick summary (1/n) 🧵
iopscience.iop.org
European heat extremes under net-zero emissions - IOPscience
European heat extremes under net-zero emissions, Alastrué de Asenjo, Eduardo, King, Andrew David, Ziehn, Tilo
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
🗞️ Read here the press release by CLICCS/@cenunihh.bsky.social: www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/about-cliccs... (6/6)
cliccs.uni-hamburg.de
Extreme heat in Europe: every year counts
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
💭 Implications This first assessment of European heat extremes in long-term net-zero futures highlights the need to reduce emissions promptly, as well as better understand the underlying mechanisms and the policy consequences of long-term net-zero changes ⌛️ (5/n)
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
💡 Key takeaways: - Even under net zero, Europe might face intensified heat extremes for centuries 🌡️ - Short delays in emissions cessation would result in even more intense extremes 📈 - The path to reach a global temperature target matters for the extreme heat distribution 🥵 (4/n)
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
📊 How do we address this gap? We use idealised 1000-year net-zero emissions Earth system model simulations, to capture the long-term evolution across European regions 💻 With different simulations with increasingly delayed emissions cessation, we can study the effect of postponed mitigation 🏭 (3/n)
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Research question❓: European heat extremes have disproportionally increased in recent decades, but their future evolution, particularly on long timescales, is yet unknown 🌍 (2/n)
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
🚨 New paper alert! 🧪 🔥 How would heat extremes in Europe evolve under long-term net-zero emissions? Find out in our ERL article, co-written with @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and Tilo Tiehn iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... Here’s a quick summary (1/n) 🧵
iopscience.iop.org
European heat extremes under net-zero emissions - IOPscience
European heat extremes under net-zero emissions, Alastrué de Asenjo, Eduardo, King, Andrew David, Ziehn, Tilo
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Hi Manu! Could you add me to the feed? 🙂 Here is my Scholar page scholar.google.de/citations?us...
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ESRAH University of Hamburg @esrah.uni-hamburg.de · 22/05/2025
🌍✨ Yippee! CLICCS will receive funding for another seven years as a Cluster of Excellence @uni-hamburg.de‬ ! Over 200 international researchers are exploring which climate futures are plausible—and how we can work towards achieving the desired ones. www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/about-cliccs...
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Are you at #EGU25 and are interested in European heat extremes in Europe? 🌡️Perhaps in net-zero futures? 🏭 Or in climate stabilisation? 📉 Come to my talk tomorrow during the first morning session, at 9:45 in room 0.31/32! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org
Abstract EGU25-10033
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
What better way to prepare for #EGU25 than to calculate the mean temperature in Vienna during the conference for each year since the @egu.eu was established 🤓📈 Considering the current weather forecast for next week, this edition we might have a record year 🌡️
Time series of daily mean temperatures averaged for each EGU General Assembly (2005-2024). Data: ERA5
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Despite staying below 2024-levels for most of April, daily global temperatures reach a new record for this time of the year 📈🌡️
Daily global surface temperatures, with a daily record on the 24th of April, 2025. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Note that even if a trend might be apparent, the conference happens at different times every year. While it's always in April-May, the seasonal cycle would have to be removed to assess a trend. For instance, the record mean temperature was in 2022, which was also the latest in the year (23–27 May)
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
What better way to prepare for #EGU25 than to calculate the mean temperature in Vienna during the conference for each year since the @egu.eu was established 🤓📈 Considering the current weather forecast for next week, this edition we might have a record year 🌡️
Time series of daily mean temperatures averaged for each EGU General Assembly (2005-2024). Data: ERA5
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
It was a huge honour to attend today’s symposium for the 50th anniversary of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology! 🎂 It’s so fascinating to see how important the institute has been for climate research, and also very exciting to look at what’s still ahead! 👏🏻
Picture of a talk at the MPI 50th anniversary symposiumLogo of the symposium that reads “50 Years of Probing the Earth System: Lessons Learned and Future Directions“
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Although global mean temperature has cooled down slightly with respect to March 20th, it's now three days in a row (March 20th- 22nd) with unprecedented record temperatures for those days of the year 🌡️🌍🌊 Credit: C3S/ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social
Daily global mean surface air temperatures in ERA5, showing unprecedented record temperatures for the 20th, 21st, and 22nd of March, 2025. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Although global mean temperature has cooled down slightly with respect to March 20th, it's now three days in a row (March 20th- 22nd) with unprecedented record temperatures for those days of the year 🌡️🌍🌊 Credit: C3S/ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social
Daily global mean surface air temperatures in ERA5, showing unprecedented record temperatures for the 20th, 21st, and 22nd of March, 2025. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
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Reposted by Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Unprecedented temperatures for this time of year 🌡️ After a couple of weeks below 2024 levels, global mean surface air temperatures reached a new 20th March ERA5 daily record, with 14.29°C 🥵 Credit: C3S/ECMWF
Daily global mean surface air temperatures in ERA5, showing unprecedented record temperatures for the 20th of March, 2025. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Sea surface temperatures for March 20th are below 2024 values but are still the second hottest ever for this day (20.94°C, 0.40°C anomaly wrt 1991-2023)🔥🌊 SATs spatial signal has large temperature anomalies over Central-East Asia, Eastern N. America, North-West Africa, & Eastern Weddell Sea coast 🌍
Daily sea surface temperatures in ERA5, highlighting 20th of March 2025 values with respect to 2024. Credit: C3S/ECMWFMap of surface air temperature anomaly for the 20th of March 2025, with respect to the 1991-2020 reference period. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Here are the anomalies w.r.t. 1991-2020. The new daily record is 0.78°C warmer than the baseline average for this day, 0.05°C warmer than the previous record for the 20th March 📈
Daily global surface air temperature anomaly in ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
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Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo @edualastrue.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Unprecedented temperatures for this time of year 🌡️ After a couple of weeks below 2024 levels, global mean surface air temperatures reached a new 20th March ERA5 daily record, with 14.29°C 🥵 Credit: C3S/ECMWF
Daily global mean surface air temperatures in ERA5, showing unprecedented record temperatures for the 20th of March, 2025. Credit: C3S/ECMWF
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Andrew King (he/him) @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
In this open review paper with @climatenerilie.bsky.social , @edualastrue.bsky.social and Tilo Ziehn we argue that the slow nature of some changes in the climate necessitate longer model projections at net zero emissions. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
egusphere.copernicus.org
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making
Abstract. Climate changes under net zero emissions will take many centuries to play out, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and in the ocean and cryosphere. New millennial-length Earth System Mod...
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