Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Maybe her biological war book is good, I don't know. I do know, however, that her nuclear war book has a number of glaring problems. ... Oh, and she wrote a book that suggests Stalin hired Josef Mengele to create a race of midget baby pilots. 3140
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 06/10/2026This is a reminder that friends don't let friends read Annie Jacobsen books. She is a crank. For almost any book she has written, someone else has done it better. Even her good work, such that it exists, is tainted by the bad. 1338
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 06/07/2026Oh god no. I look forward to her explaining a version of ebola that turns people into goblins while having POTUS base jump from the top of Mount Rushmore. 000
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/03/2026North Korea has launched a ballistic missile. This almost certainly a missile test or launching drill. US and South Korean forces started a major military exercise this week, and it is not uncommon for North Korea to launch missiles in response to these exercises. 081
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 10/03/2026Shahrud was, to my knowledge, the last Iranian solid propellant production site to survive unmolested in the current conflict. Deeper in Iran than the others, it was harder to get at. It's been struck now, though, and suffered substantial damage. 082
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 07/03/2026@slair.bsky.social has been monitoring every missile base in Iran (and many other things) this week. 0133
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 02/03/2026Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu Stupid enterprise computers. 020
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 28/02/2026A friend pointed out that there is a drop down menu under "Following," and I needed to set it to Sort by Recent. 000
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 28/02/2026Of all the times for my Twitter feed to finally, truly break... I mean, why would I want my feed on a social media app to be arranged chronologically. Obviously I care more about the billion things retweeted by people I follow 12 hours ago. It's not like there's a major event occurring or anything. 120
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 20/02/2026Me, four hours ago: NO BRITISH MODEL TRAIN IS SAFE Me, now: Goddamnit. And he's adding MORE? Fuuuuuuuuuu Also we are 100% bombing Iran now. 010
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 28/01/2026Where would that fit on the "Technical alignment chart"? 020
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 25/01/2026Last year I asked my coworkers when we should start checking satellite images of the camps for new incinerators. I was only half joking. 030
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 25/01/2026We have, however, seen some BORTAC personnel with P320's in Minneapolis, although others appear to be carrying Glocks. 000
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 25/01/2026One interesting thing is that last year ICE switched from the P320 to the Glock 19. The P320 has a reputation as a sweet-shooting pistol with a good trigger... perhaps too good for poorly-trained recruits. It also could just be that Sig couldn't provide enough guns. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 25/01/2026True or not, the problem is such that many gun ranges and some competitions have banned the P320. Some police departments have switched away from the P320. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 25/01/2026Sig claims the gun will not fire without the trigger pulled, which is technically true. The problem is that some examples can apparently fire if you hit or shift the slide with the trigger only partially pulled. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 25/01/2026Yeah, the evidence is anecdotal, but there are videos demonstrating that at least some P320s can fire without the trigger being fully pulled. Probably tolerance stacking in impacting the sear interface. 240
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 23/01/2026I should not have to worry about whether a particular analyst or organization is making shit up to game a prediction market, but that's the world we live in now. 0101
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 23/01/2026The open gamblification of real-world events, especially events that potentially involve the loss of human life, is deeply disturbing. The intentional manipulation of those gambling systems for profit is, I think, especially indicative of a profound moral emptiness in both operators and participants 1171
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 22/01/2026ICE and CBP are the moral and legal equivalent of a Superfund site. Raze these organizations to the ground, tear out the foundations, and start anew from greenfield status. 142
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 21/01/2026A thought (building on what others have said) RE: the Iceland mix-up and 'not using force.' Maybe someone (from DoD?) told him in no uncertain terms that Greenland is a miserable place covered in ice and he is not allowed to use force to take it. He might not even realize that Iceland exists. 130
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 20/01/2026We do what we can. Attend protests. Help our neighbors. Call our congresscritters. Other than that, I don't know. Have a model train. 1110
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 20/01/2026Working in NatSec while the President and his viziers burn the entire basis of US national security to the ground out of spite feels really, truly depressing. And that on top of everything else! This administration is hell-bent on imposing a fundamentally stupid, disgusting, and evil future upon us 181
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 20/01/2026I don't like that we've gotten to the "Evergreen Intel thread about the US threat to Greenland" stage of things. 211210
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 16/01/2026Marklin does something like that with glass bottles, but corks instead of bottlecaps. 090
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/202612/12 There are admittedly a lot of assumptions here, and I welcome any corrections or feedback. 000
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/202611/12 Given that Russia probably doesn't want us to know what strategic operations look like, if some of these communications can instead be performed via landline, there is additional incentive for Russia to use established bases (like Kapustin Yar) for Oreshnik launches. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/202610/12 Given that Yars and Oreshnik units probably share the same communications equipment, the resemblance extends to the electromagnetic spectrum. Observing Oreshnik launches will provide insight into Yars operations (and vice versa), even if the comms are encrypted. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/20269/12 Another potential reason is the units themselves. Conventionally-armed Oreshnik operations are probably very similar to Yars operations, minus any steps specifically related to nuclear warheads. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/20268/12 This is one potential reason for continuing to launch Oreshnik out of Kapustin Yar. A unit based there has access to both the airfield (for couriered data) and encrypted/landline communications networks. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/20267/12 This is a limitation that Oreshnik operations must be planned around. Since Oreshnik can't rapidly add new targets, we see it used (like a strategic system) against static, high-value targets. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/20266/12 The same is almost certainly true for Yars and Oreshnik. A mobile IRBM/ICBM unit is very unlikely to have the computational power needed to generate new guidance data. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/20265/12 A computer needs to perform fancy number-crunching to create new guidance data. That data needs to be brought to the silo or LCC, either transmitted electronically or by courier, and then the data is loaded into the missile. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/20264/12 Minuteman III missiles each hold a number of preloaded target sets they can fire at. Changing between target sets before launch is essentially instantaneous. Adding a new target, however, is time-consuming. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/20263/12 The Oreshnik guidance system is probably a close derivative of the Yars. If Yars is anything like current-generation Minuteman, Oreshnik's targeting capabilities are probably not very dynamic. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/20262/12 Given that Oreshnik's development timeline was likely compressed, this has implications for the system, both technical and operational. In particular, it probably borrows heavily from existing, nuclear-armed systems like Yars (and the cancelled Rubezh). 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 14/01/20261/12 Some notes: Oreshnik is the first conventionally-armed missile operated by the RVSN (Strategic Rocket Forces), and the first conventionally-armed missile developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MITT). 121
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 13/01/2026Or torture yourself and buy a Soviet camera. They made the Zorkiy 4 (derived from early Liecas) from 1956 to 1978, and all of them are equally unreliable! The Kiev (a Contax clone) is slightly more reliable, but later production cameras have horrible lens wobble. 000
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 13/01/2026Be the eccentric. Buy the folding camera. Shoot rolls of medium format film and never get them developed. 100
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 11/01/2026Interesting. The only UK solid rocket motor plant that I'm aware of is Roxel (near Birmingham), and I'm not sure what their max motor size is. Though I guess the motor needed to push a 200kg payload to 500km might isn't really that large. 050
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 09/01/2026... it's also very true that if the Russian military adopts a weapon, they're going to create plans for its operational use. Optimally, these plans will take account of the weapon's limitations, whatever those may be. As Decker notes, there are situations that can make use of Oreshnik's capabilities 040
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 09/01/2026I tend to view Oreshnik's creation as driven primarily by industry rather than military requirements (i.e. the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology wanted some of that sweet, sweet special military operation money, and managed to convince someone that Oreshnik was a worthwhile investment), but... 131
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 08/01/2026You can see in the video that the first four impacts are large - there appear to be groups of objects impacting almost simultaneously. The last two impacts appear to be discrete, single objects. It's possible that these last two are packages that failed to deploy submunitions. 030
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 08/01/2026The packages each contain six kinetic impactors, which impact in a cluster around the target, similar to a shotgun. It's very similar to the 'rods from god' concept - damage is inflicted on the target by the sheer kinetic energy of the impactors, rather than by conventional explosives. 160
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 08/01/2026We believe that a conventionally-armed Oreshnik carries six 'packages' rather than traditional re-entry vehicles. A bus/post-boost vehicle probably controls the final targeting of the packages (aligning each one to impact a precise target, like a modern ICBM). 141
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 08/01/2026This looks like Oreshnik. As @dexeve.bsky.social speculated on Twitter, there may have been a partial payload malfunction. bsky.app/profile/kate... 122
Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 08/01/2026Seeing potentially credible reports and videos of a new Oreshnik launch against Ukraine tonight. 193