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Dr. Jeff Masters

@drjeffmasters.bsky.social
26K followers 606 following 2.4K posts

Extreme weather and climate change expert writing for Yale Climate Connections. Co-founder, Weather Underground; former hurricane hunter.

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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 4h
Three landfalls in one weekend! Fri night: —Hurricane Isaias, central U.S. Gulf Coast Sat night: —TS Simon (MX), near Puerto Vallarta, possibly as a Cat 4 —Rachel (MX), N Baja Calif as tropical storm The scoop from @drjeffmasters.bsky.social and me: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/10/hurr...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Hurricane Isaias steadily intensifying over record-warm Gulf waters » Yale Climate Connections
The most likely landfall intensity of Isaias has an unusually large range, from a strong tropical storm to a strong category 2 hurricane.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Water levels are already running about 1' above expected at Pensacola, and 2' higher at the mouth of the Mississippi River at Southwest Pass, Louisiana. tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb...
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
The map view also allows you to toggle on and off additional flood information. Options include:
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The water level of 3.57' predicted for Pensacola from Isaias would rank as the 9th-highest. Their tidal range is normally ~2', but on Fri/Sat, some of the lowest tides of the month are coming, with a tidal range of only ~0.5'. Thus, surge impacts are not very dependent on landfall timing.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
A steadily intensifying #Isaias is expected to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2026. Meanwhile, ex-Hurricane Rachel is likely to bring damaging surf and heavy rains to the California/Mexico border region this weekend, and TD-20-E may hit Mexico as Cat 2 Hurricane Simon this weekend.
yaleclimateconnections.org
Strengthening Isaias expected to hit the U.S. Gulf coast Friday as a hurricane » Yale Climate Connections
Isaias is expected to quickly strengthen into the season’s first hurricane by early Thursday – the latest first-forming Atlantic hurricane in reliable records by a wide margin.
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Newborn #TD9 is predicted to become TS #Isaias on Tuesday night and reach the central U.S. Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Friday night. With the Gulf's surface waters at record-warm levels for early October, this one bears close watching. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/10/odds...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Odds of a U.S. Gulf Coast hurricane landfall are rising » Yale Climate Connections
A tropical depression organizing in the record-breaking warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico is predicted to arrive as Hurricane Isaias on Friday night.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Impressive fall color at Pictured Rocks on Lake Superior this weekend! Enjoyed a great paddle at Miners Castle yesterday before the winds started cranking.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Sustained winds 34, gusting to 40 mph, at Grand Marais on @lakesuperior today!
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Finally got time to go through the full report and it knocked my socks off. Cohesive argument that housing, insurance, energy, and transportation costs should be thought of as one interconnected issue, and we should tackle as a package by building smarter in low hazard areas at SCALE.
1) Cut red tape specifically to allow homes of all shapes and sizes in connected, lower-hazard
established neighborhoods.
2) Put public land in lower-hazard established neighborhoods to work.
3) Simplify public financing so dollars for income-restricted housing and starter homes go
further.
4) Make disaster-prepared construction the norm.
5) Build lower utility costs into new homes from the start and make homes critical energy
infrastructure.
6) Align utility reforms with housing affordability and grid reliability.
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Hurricane remnents + Gulf inflow are slamming the I-35 corridor from E Neb to SW TX. Lincoln NE had its wettest day in 139 years of recordkeeping on Wed. The soggy scoop from @irenesans.bsky.social, @drjeffmasters.bsky.social and myself: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/10/trop...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Tropical moisture, stalled front fueling flood threat across the Central Plains » Yale Climate Connections
A pipeline of tropical moisture is feeding a slow-moving storm system, unleashing repeated downpours from Texas to the Central Plains.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Hurricane #Polo has made two landfalls in Mexico today, and will spread flooding rains of 2-7" over the next few days into the Southwest and Plains in regions that need 8+ inches of rain to pull them out of long-term drought. @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I have the details:
yaleclimateconnections.org
After two landfalls in Mexico, Hurricane Polo's rainmaking journey has just begun » Yale Climate Connections
Moisture from Polo and ex-hurricane Odalys is helping spawn heavy rain and potential flooding from northwest Mexico into the southwest and central U.S.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Yes, we made that request in a subsequent attempt, and the result was satisfactory.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Swimming, anyone? “Entering the ocean should be avoided due to the potential for poor water quality associated with damaged septic systems.”
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Our failure to do adequate managed retreat from shores vulnerable to sea level rise has closed a National Seashore beach in North Carolina: “A significant amount of private beach stairs and boardwalk decking, septic system parts, and wooden and metal debris from houses are littering the beach.”
islandfreepress.org
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We're not going to use AI to do any work with satellite images in the future! (this was our first attempted usage). We opted to use a raw satellite image and a shot from inside the eye from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/hurr...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Hurricane Nolo takes another turn, Polo to bring deep tropical moisture to Southwest desert » Yale Climate Connections
Polo aims for Baja California, Nolo flirts with Category 5 strength, and Rachel intensifies as the Pacific’s relentless late-September storm train rolls on. Meanwhile, Hanna is born in the Atlantic.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
AI upgrades TD Fay to a major hurricane: For our post on the action in the Pacific/Atlantic we wanted a side-by-side satellite image of both basins. To combine the two images, we instructed ChatGPT: "Combine the two satellite images into one". Lots of nice enhancements, but look what it did to Fay!
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Among named systems, #Polo is the big story this week. On Monday, Polo could become the strongest hurricane on record to strike Baja California. Moisture from Polo + #Odalys will fuel a swath of heavy rain from NW MX and SW US into the central states. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/hurr...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Hurricane Polo approaches Mexico as coastal storm grips Northeast, New England » Yale Climate Connections
With the former Category 5 hurricane on track to strike Baja California on Monday, its moisture will fuel widespread, beneficial rains while also boosting the risk of dangerous flash flooding.
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
From #Nolo to #Polo to #Gonzalo – all to affect land areas – plus #Odalys, #Fay, and a wicked weekend nor'easter, the superheated E Pacific and N Atlantic are boiling with activity. Latest from @irenesans.bsky.social, @drjeffmasters.bsky.social and me: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/nolo...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Nolo to bring flood, surf, and wind to Hawaii; Gonzalo develops in the Atlantic » Yale Climate Connections
Atlantic storms will be short-lived, while powerful Pacific hurricanes persist and the Northeast battles a potent nor’easter.
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Irene Sans @irenesans.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The Pacific is a factory working overtime! Polo, Nolo, Odalys, and two more areas... The Atlantic had a resurrection... Read more here: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/paci...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Pacific's cyclone factory is working overtime as multiple hurricanes roar across the basin » Yale Climate Connections
Nolo threatens Hawaii with flooding rain and dangerous surf, while powerful Hurricane Polo could make another impact to México and more tropical systems take shape.
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Hurricanes are categorized by their wind speeds, but freshwater flooding is the deadliest hazard, a threat that is increasing in a warmer, wetter atmosphere because of human-caused climate change. cc @drjeffmasters.bsky.social / @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org
Climate change is supercharging hurricane rainfall, contributing to deadly floods » Yale Climate Connections
Freshwater flooding has caused over half of all direct hurricane deaths since 2013. The threat will increase as climate change makes hurricanes wetter and potentially slower-moving.
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Yale Climate Connections @climateconnections.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
From Western Mexico to Hawaii to the Mid-Atlantic and New England, flooding is the order of the week: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/powe...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Powerful Hurricane Polo threatens Mexico with torrential rain as Pacific tropics erupt » Yale Climate Connections
Polo churns off Mexico with up to eight inches of rain and 46-foot seas, while another strengthening tropical system threatens eastern Hawaii with dangerous surf and rainfall of 10 to 30-plus inches.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
A classic El Niño impact: below-average monsoon rains in India. We're seeing a -15% deficit this year. India's top 5 rainfall deficit years all were during El Niño: 1877: -33% 1899: -29% 1918: -25% 1972: -24% 2009: -22% During moderate El Niño conditions in summer 2015, the deficit was -14%.
indiatoday.in
10 days left: Monsoon almost over, India's rain deficit at 15%, recovery bleak
India's southwest monsoon is entering its final phase with a 15 per cent rainfall deficit still in place. With withdrawal set to begin over parts of northwest India, the window for any meaningful reco...
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Tale of two oceans in a top-end El Niño: —TS #Fay fails to break Atlantic hurricane "drought." — #Polo forecast to be Cat 5 by Wed off MX Pacific coast. Future TBD after #Polo and #Odalys face off late this week. My latest w/ @drjeffmasters.bsky.social: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/a-ca...
yaleclimateconnections.org
A Category 5 hurricane could be raging off Mexico’s Pacific coast this week » Yale Climate Connections
In a rare expression of forecast confidence, NHC predicted Polo would become a Cat 5 at a time when it was still a tropical storm.
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
100 years ago yesterday, the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane caused profound destruction, plunging the city into a deep economic downturn. Four groups say a repeat would cost over $200 billion. Such a catastrophe, like the 1926 hurricane, would cleave Florida history into a “before” and an “after.”
yaleclimateconnections.org
A repeat of Miami’s 1926 hurricane could cost over $280 billion. That's more than Hurricane Katrina. » Yale Climate Connections
A century of development, rising seas, and climate change have made South Florida far more vulnerable to a catastrophic storm.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
And as we saw during the Great Recession of 2008, a real estate crisis can quickly morph into a systemic financial crisis for the entire country, because banks own most of the value, and thus the risk, in housing and commercial real estate.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Moody’s estimated that a population decline of 7-20% could result in Miami in the five years following the Cat 5 hurricane they modeled. In other words, such a catastrophe, like the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane, would cleave Florida history into a “before” and an “after.”
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
With this kind of insurance increase, many people would be unable to buy a home, and high insurance prices would cause a spike in mortgage defaults for existing homeowners. This could cause a significant downturn in the real estate market — and also severely stress the municipal bond market.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Moody’s estimated in its “moderate” scenario for a Cat 5 Miami hurricane that in the five years following it, insurance premiums could increase by 60% above recent prices, and nearly triple by the end of 2036. www.moodys.com/web/en/us/in...
moodys.com
Hurricane in South Florida: Economic Consequences
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
A 2025 study (not yet peer reviewed), "Stress testing insurance market stability under climate risk", gave 4% odds/yr (34% in 10 years) that uninsured losses from an extreme hurricane season in Florida could exceed 1% of the state’s GDP, a scale capable of causing a severe banking crisis.
eartharxiv.org
Stress testing insurance market stability under climate risk
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
A repeat of the 1926 hurricane might cause a severe downward spiral in the Florida real estate market from which it might never fully recover and cause significant multi-year losses to one of the other mainstays of the Florida economy — tourism.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
With climate change increasing the odds of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, sea levels rising, and money continuing to pour into Miami to develop this high-risk city, I think it is likely that a $200-billion-plus hurricane will hit Miami in the next 40 years.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Verisk's $280-billion damage estimate for a Cat 4 Miami hurricane did not include losses that would be covered by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), nor damage to public infrastructure like roads, bridges, and utilities. Total economic damages would be far greater.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
NHC says return period for a Miami Cat 3 is 14 years. Verisk Catastrophe and Risk Solutions says a repeat of the Cat 4 1926 hurricane is a 1-in-100-year event (26% in 30 years). It would cost insurers $230 billion, with another $50 billion in "insurable" losses that could be insured but weren't.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
100 years ago yesterday, the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane caused profound destruction, plunging the city into a deep economic downturn. Four groups say a repeat would cost over $200 billion. Such a catastrophe, like the 1926 hurricane, would cleave Florida history into a “before” and an “after.”
yaleclimateconnections.org
A repeat of Miami’s 1926 hurricane could cost over $280 billion. That's more than Hurricane Katrina. » Yale Climate Connections
A century of development, rising seas, and climate change have made South Florida far more vulnerable to a catastrophic storm.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
TD 6 will likely become Tropical Storm Fay but remain a "fish" storm with no threat to land, @irenesans.bsky.social reports today: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/atla...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Atlantic remains hurricane-free as Tropical Depression Six forms near the Azores » Yale Climate Connections
Yale Climate Connections is a nonpartisan, multimedia service providing daily broadcast radio programming and original web-based reporting, commentary, and analysis on the issue of climate change.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
A great loss. Joe’s book, “Language Intelligence”, made me a better science communicator (use metaphors!) His Climate Progress blog was also a great inspiration.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Fascinating: "After the hurricane, Miami appointed John Farrey its first chief building inspector, tasking him with developing and enforcing the first universal building code not just in Miami but in the U.S. It became known as the Miami Standard and was adopted in over 5,000 other cities."
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
FEMA will pay homeowners after a house collapses, but not before. That means owners stand to lose tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars by tearing down a doomed house before the ocean takes it.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Interesting approach to get fresh water for about $22K, plus about $200/month in electricity costs. Anyone got one of these? www.aquaria.world/hydropack
aquaria.world
Hydropack | Aquaria
~132 gallons of clean water a day from air. Whole-home water for medium households.
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Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
World Weather Attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
NEW: Climate change is influencing many of the likely drivers behind the devastating rock and ice collapse on the northern Nepalese border last month. 🧵👇(1/6)
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
100 years ago: “The 1926 hurricane has become a benchmark in South Florida history, a dividing point in time, much like B.C. and A.D. It has achieved a mystique of almost biblical proportions — akin to Noah’s flood or the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah.” — Miami historian Arva Moore Parks.
yaleclimateconnections.org
A look back at the devastating Great Miami Hurricane, 100 years later » Yale Climate Connections
'Late that night, in absolute darkness, it hit, with the far shrieking screams, the queer rumbling of a vast and irresistible freight train,' Marjory Stoneman Douglas wrote of the storm.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I’m a judge for the 2027 Climate Leadership Awards. Win your share of more than $200,000 for successful local, regional, or national climate action! Open to individuals and organizations—including youth, arts, faith, health, community, and small-business leaders. Apply by December 14, 2026: #ACLA27
ecoamerica.org
American Climate Leadership Awards - ecoAmerica
Over $200,000 for the people making climate action real in America Nominations and applications are open. Deadline: December 2026. For eight years, ACLA has backed the neighbors, healers, organizers, ...
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
My bottom line: I give ~90% chance of a net increase in Atlantic hurricane destruction over the coming 30 years compared to the past 30 years, because of climate change and continued development of vulnerable coastal areas. I'll cover the 10% best-case scenario in a future post.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
10) Atmospheric circulation changes. In addition to ENSO, the MJO, and the African monsoon, circulation patterns such as the Hadley cell and NAO will undoubtedly be changing in significant ways because of climate change. It is feasible that such changes could act to supercharge hurricane activity.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
9) Hurricanes get larger. A larger hurricane will cause more damage, but fortunately, most climate modeling for the future generally shows no increase in the size of hurricanes. There is at least one study that did find an increase, for potential storms affecting NYC.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
8) More Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid superstorms occur. Since Sandy, there haven’t been any similar hybrid superstorms, but climate change might cause more because hybrid storms are more likely to occur late in the season, when extratropical storms move farther south and increase in intensity.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
7) An increase in Central American Gyre (CAG) activity spawns more hurricanes. It’s likely that gyre events will produce more rainfall due to higher moisture availability in a warmer atmosphere, and it is possible (though poorly understood) if they could spawn more hurricanes.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
6) The Madden‐Julian Oscillation intensifies from increases in atmospheric moisture. A 2015 paper predicted that under an extreme global warming scenario, the MJO could increase in amplitude by 30%, boosting hurricane activity. The influence of cliamte change on the MJO is poorly understood, though.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
5) Sea level rise ends up on the high side of predictions. NOAA says sea level will rise 14-18" on the Gulf Coast, 10-14" on the U.S. East Coast, 8-10" in the Caribbean for 2020-2050. But a faster rise is possible.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
4) The number of slower-moving, stalled, and slow-to-weaken storms increases. Several papers have shown an increase in slow-moving, stalled, and slow-to-weaken Atlantic tropical cyclones affecting land areas. It is plausible (but not yet proven) that these trends are because of climate change.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
3) Tropical cyclone rainfall increase ends up on the high side of projections. The same paper found the median change in rainfall rate was an increase of 17%, but about 5% of the studies predicted a rainfall increase of 22% or more.
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