Sign in

Dan Pomerantz

@dpomerantz.bsky.social
191 followers 669 following 320 posts
PostsRepliesMedia
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 16/10/2026
I mean honestly, other than rolling on the Laken Riley Act (which was somewhat understandable politically at the time but deeply short-sighted) and not getting McMorrow over AES (even as he still prob wins), Dem Leadership actually has been dominant this cycle!
020 2
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Like either MN-01 is Lean R/ Tossup and thus MN-Senate is Likely/ Safe D… or MN- Senate is Lean D/ Tossup and MN-01 is Likely/ Safe R. I tend towards the former rather than the latter due to political environment!
050 5
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Interesting they made the call for MN to Lean D. I get why they did it based on polling but I still bet the margin sits towards a Likely Dem one and that it will be the NJ 2025 of this cycle. I know the internal state factors are a concern but I really struggle to see this not being won 7-10 points!
1110 11
Reposted by Dan Pomerantz
Denny Carter @dennycarter.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Big Dom doing a Dem Party event is like D+30 territory, I’m telling you
Big Dom on the eagles speaking at a Philadelphia Democratic Party event
819116 191
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Also how did I forget AZ Q-een Kari Lake lol 😂
110 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Like even the two most questionable nominees in statewide races (AES & Angie Nixon) really do seem to be pretty talented political actors all things considered. This ain’t the GOP trotting out O’Donnell, Angle, Buck, Murdock, Akin, Roy Moore, Masters, Walker, Tudor Dixon, Mark Robinson. Like LOL!
281 8
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Yeah I have it as Median ~240 Dem seats, 1 Standard Deviation (SD) range as 235-245 seats, 2SD 228-252 and 3SD as 220-260. Even in the worst case scenario, Dems flip the house… but it’s just as likely as truly titanic better than 2008 wave year!
110 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Even in this poll, Shapiro is +16. If the statewide polls are low to mid 20s, he’s gonna win this seat by 20… and pull all tides including PA-1, HD142 & HD178
140 4
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
I’ve been saying for a while it honestly depends on how the top of the ticket runs. Last year this seat had statewide offices run between D+11-17. I expect Shapiro to hit about D+20 if not a little higher. Fitz is strong but he isn’t THAT strong. I’ll tip my hat to him if he out runs Garritty by 20
110 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
I know we won’t likely get all of that, but honestly, to end the scourge of Trumpism, we really need an emotional reset. Cause while 2018 & 2020 were good, they really weren’t good enough! We need a 1932, 1964, 1974, a 2006/2008. We need Dem equivalent of 1980 or 1994 to cleanse ourselves of this!
060 6
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
I completely agree with this… and yet I’m greedy and really want, no need, a midterm more devastating to GOP than 2006. Like we really need 55 senate seats (including ME, TX, KS, SC). Over 250 house seats including PA-1. We need Trifectas in NV, AZ, MN, MI, WI, PA, VT & NH. And Govs in TX, GA, IA.
130 3
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Also this is an Ancestral Dem Seat! MI-01 was lead by long time ConservaDem Bart Stupak, author of the famous Stupak Amendment to the ACA! If he’s having to go negative, that can only be a good sign for AES!
030 3
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Stauber is a reasonably strong incumbent… but MN-8 has a remarkable Ancestral Dem tradition and could see this seat also being a surprise flip!
100 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Charles, I expect you to do it at least once a week, every week till the election as the Qualitative Forecasters (Sabato, Cook etc) start aligning with the polling models (FPO, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, RaceToWH etc)!
020 2
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Do you think if these trends continue this would sink Lombardo in NV GOV? Lock in NV Supermajority? Flip NV-2??
100 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
The answer lays in the spending. Neither side is really spending here beyond the Trump+15 MN-1 Seat. That should tell you where this race actually is!
140 4
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Preordered!
120 2
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
There aren’t that many races in NJ as the state elections were last year. NJ-7 is practically an autoflip. But could NJ-2 & Jeff Van Drew get sucked into the undertow?!?!?! God I hope that traitor gets sunk!
030 3
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
It’s their loss! I’m sorry you have to leave on their terms and not your own but we all know here you are an exceptional political journalist and will get a position at a top tier outlet soon. But honestly, you’re probably talented enough to do an independent approach to get subscribers and ads!
000 0
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Look we are Absolutely facing a Tankie/ Left Wing Anti-Semitism problem within parts of the Dem electorate (which we gotta clean house on)… but the “Pro-Likud Israel” alliance within GOP seems to be rapidly being subsumed by Groyper/ Techno-NeoNazism at the highest levels! Like Yikes! 😬
000 0
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
I know Troy Jackson has his supposed weaknesses, but he’s been getting the most out of these debates regarding high profile clips. And other than the CBS poll has been barely underrunning Hannah Pingree’s topline numbers. I know Charlie Cook thinks he’s struggling but I think Jackson’s got this tbh!
020 2
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
It’s in his best interest to run up the margin to help lift KLB across the finish line in the Governor race!
080 8
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
As someone who has actually read histories on the Confederacy “Government” in the run up to and during the Civil War, it is painfully obvious how mediocre these guys were compared to comparable “revolutionary” governments like the American Continental Congress. Definitionally Mediocre!
000 0
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
To be fair, my family and I just received our ballots in Bucks County yesterday and sent them out today! I expect some of the other counties to catch up as their start dates are later but this is still a REALLY good sign for PA Dems!
010 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
That’s probably too much for Fitzpatrick to outrun! He’ll overperform, but he can’t out run a 25 point deficit from the top of the case.
000 0
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Genuine good faith question re: “rural non-response” debate/ cope. How does “dejected base non-response” in polling relate to other missed results in wave years, such as 2010 Senate races in CO, NV & WA, which Dems held despite slight GOP poll leans? Thanks! @chicyph80.bsky.social @trumpstaxes.com
000 0
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Honestly seeing the MI Gov result makes me feel much better about the MI Senate result. AES is pretty close to Benson’s margin so I think this contest is still gonna be clearly within the Dem column!
020 2
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
My hotter take (though not super hot) is that South Carolina Senate is more competitive than Nebraska Senate… and that Dems are more likely to win TX, OH & AK than GOP is to win SC!
000 0
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
You should also move Michigan to Lean Dem today and probably SC & NE to Lean GOP, as well as FL & MS to Likely GOP within the next couple weeks. As well as maybe moving AK, TX, OH to Lean D (though that def would be debatable) by months end based on the polling/ fundamentals models!
130 3
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Also lol on moving New Hampshire back to Lean Dem! They never should have made it Tossup in the first place! But while these Political Rating Groups are lagging the poll model raters… they do seem to be aligning with them now!
0111 11
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I always worry a little bit about vote cannibalism with these early vote issues (see 2020 election), but I’d rather have this than it go in the other direction because especially without Trump helping drive E-Day turnout, GOP E-Day could also be BAD!
010 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The Mississippi thing for Dems has been interesting cause while CHS is def a weak candidate and Colom is strong, this seems to be more of a Dem Establishment attempt to placate CBC members justifiably furious about Callais, rather than precise ruthless use of resources… like KS, SC & NE!
160 6
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Yeah at minimum I think Dems regain their supermajorities back in VT… but this seems like the type of environment where Phil Scott loses Dem support gradually, then all at once! 🤞
0100 10
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
As a Millennial, our equivalent movie for younger generations… The Brave Little Toaster! I remember loving it as a kid only to watch it pretty recently on Disney and think “HTF did my parents let me watch this?!?!?!?”
010 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I mean that’s more than just creating trifectas in PA, MI, WI, MN & AZ (alongside possible Gov flips in NV, AK, VT & NH), but that’s potentially putting state assemblies and senates in play and in NH, NC, GA, TX, IA… KS?!?!?
050 5
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Even in this VERY anti-incumbent environment for Dems, the fact that other than AES (whose actually tacked back pretty well) & longshot FL Senate, 2 Swing House seats & a few safe Dem House seats that problematic Dem insurgents have been quelled is a pretty big deal!
001 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I think a lot of people forget how the GOP pissed away their shots at the Senate in 2010 definitively & 2022 in part (though Dobbs also helped Dems) because of poor primary decisions!
100 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
TBF Him going there probably is a net-negative and he knows it lol. Interesting that Ohio, Kansas and Nebraska are not listed targets in this article!
160 6
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
BuT Nate CoHn SaYs RePuBLiCaNs WeRe UnDeRsAmPLeD!!!!! /s @meadia.bsky.social @gilmored85.bsky.social
060 6
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It was bad… but this is genuine rocket-fuel for it because this issue (alongside the Epstein Files stuff) is probably THE issue that divides the base the most!
020 2
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
static.klipy.com
Mini-Me's Sarcastic "Right..." Reaction
ALT: Mini-Me's Sarcastic "Right..." Reaction
100 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Lol these are all fair (if late) calls… but I also feel like this move was also a reaction to the wild decision to move NH senate all the way to Tossup a couple weeks ago!
120 2
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
That was Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Kyle Kondik who drives the Senate ratings there is by far the sharpest of the Big Three Senate Raters (Sabato’s CB, Cook’s PR & Rothenberg’s IE). Jessica Taylor of Cook is a dolt and Nathan Gonzales is a Clicks Chaser! Of course they both have NH as Tossup!
000 0
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This explains ALOT about why Mike Rogers is up with panicky ads about the Iran War & Gas Prices. He’s probably down and knows that the negative hits on AES probably aren’t enough!
150 5
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I’d put it as Lean D for Maine Senate but otherwise agree. What’s your thoughts on NH Senate? Lean D or Likely D?
200 2
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Yeah the GOP NH spending is literally panic spending because GA & NC are completely off the board and KS is coming onto the board. It’s the only state they can even squint at as possibility (even if it isn’t). Reminds me of Romney late spending in 2012 PA when it was always off the map!
030 3
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
TBH Kansas Senate 2026 is more VA Senate 2006 when Jim Webb beat George Allen! An ancestrally GOP state w/ a high college educated population in which a wave election marked the beginning of a fundamental realignment of the state!
080 8
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
What I think is problematic about Dems supporting the MTP for this bill is its w/o support of any African American Dem Senator! Alsobrooks, Booker, Blunt Rochester & Warnock all oppose this in its current form! This doesn’t seem like a good political move to poke our base in the eye before Midterms!
010 1
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
TBF, while Dave Wasserman is a smug “know-it-all”, his house reasoning is usually okay. Jessica Taylor, the Senate analyst at Cook, is actually a dolt! Her Senate analysis has been honestly shockingly bad, especially compared to J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik at Crystal Ball!
261 6
Dan Pomerantz @dpomerantz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I overall believe the top-line result! But I should note that the 2024 electorate recall being D+4-5 instead of R+1-2 causes some pause… though the turnout differential really could be that brutal for GOP! 🤯
120 2