AfD (populist far right populist): NO realistic prospect to govern Germany at Federal level - failed bid for local State government - except maybe to some extent in Saxony Anhalt (currently tied)

The MoU for Iran / US is NOT ended - Motjaba supports the pragmatists - this is an incident caused by heightened emotions during the funeral of Al Khamenei - there will be sustained secret negotiation...

Ignore claimed Russian plan to attack Poland - implausible scenario - single unnamed Polish intelligence source - hare-brained scheme that is low risk for Russia - no risk of war - but wouldn't work

An El Nino is warm surface water moving around - deeper ocean gets cooler - a Super El Nino is just a strong El Nino - effects similar to a normal El Nino but more so

Final text of the Iran agreement - looks as good as it would get after the Iran war - all parties already said they are okay with it and independent politicians like Mark Carney (Liberal leader of Can...

Iran deal is now agreed - Strait of Hormuz open - and the official signing is on 19 June in Switzerland - also includes ceasefire in Lebanon

Iran / US Memorandum of Understanding agreed and ready to sign - but may take a few more days - confirmed by US, Iran and Pakistan - "Peace has never been this close as it is now."

NATO is NOT being attacked - Romanian apartment was likely hit by a stray drone from the Ukraine war - likely response to beef up drone defences and investigate to find out why they missed it

Ebola can't spread as a pandemic - wrong kind of disease - only three cases of spread to nurses outside of Africa - spreads in the Congo because of funeral customs, collapsed health care etc.

First Oreshnik already hit Kyiv and looks just like the others - no details in yet but previously the Dnipro one had 2 injuries, only one needing hospital, Lviv had none

First Oreshnik already hit Kyiv and looks just like the others - no details in yet but previously the Odessa one had 2 injuries, only one needing hospital, Lviv had none

You can continue to use Google exactly as before - its upcoming changes will only add new options if you click

A mathematician's joke from 1960: the human population can't grow to infinity by Nov 13, 2026 - or ever - the humorous impossible prediction of Heinz Von Foester

Trump has some leverage over Iran but not huge: experts say Iran can easily withstand blockade of oil exports - oil capacity will be largely restored after war - manageable small LNG production drop

Block on Hormuz strait nowhere enough to cause global recession - not even in IMF scenario where it's blocked to end of 2027 - and US IS affected - Trump under pressure to unblock well before midterms

Hantavirus outbreak is small - only 7 contacts infected from initial case - all infected on cruise ship - no contacts of contacts tested positive - may be more cases but no risk of epidemic

Iran negotiations underway for Memorandum of Understanding - Trump: US attempt to get ships through the blockade paused - Rubio: Epic Fury war has ended - Iran and US blockades continue for now

How Trump can end the Iran negotiations impasse - just shift to a new position - and say he never shifted and that he's won - why you almost never catch him changing position

Trump needs a majority in each chamber to continue Iran war beyond 60 days - likely can't get it - told Congress war terminated before its one week recess- only minor breaches of ceasefire on Monday

Graphic of 65 current Black African American members of the House - if proportiuonal to population would be 60

Minimal effect from SCOTUS Louisiana rulin: 1-2 seats for House in 2026 - at most 10 in 2028 likely counteracted by Dems - House margins typically larger - election of president or senate unchanged

New second round of talks in Islamabad at low level and indirect - with possibly Vance joining later - "the ice seems to be melting" - Pakistnai journalist Anas Mallak

Iran / US close to a deal - built surprising though minimal level of trust - many issues resolved - but still stuck in a stand-off that may last days - probably over zero enrichment v. zero stockpiles

US and Iran talks seem a go - likely simple Islamabad declaration with core points - America doesn't have experts for a robust deal - Iran does and offered far stronger than JCPOA before war started

Shift of Hungary from far right to centre-right: Peter Mayar's 2/3 majority will completely overturn all far right changes Orban made - restore LGBT rights - won't block EU aid to Ukraine

Many signals suggest US and Iran close to a framework no nukes deal to end the war - likely second round of negotiations in Islamabad - Trump may go himself to sign the deal - then 60 days to complete

Mythos AI is a coding tool that DETECTS vulnerabilities AND builds EXPLOITS for them - so Anthropic will use it to ALERT developers to vulnerabilities and not release it - to make software MORE SECURE

Replacing Powell by Warsh as FOMC Chair will likely have no significant effect on Federal Bank decisions - they attempt a consensus - or if no consensus, choose by majority of 7 out of 12

No risk of Emperor penguin or fur seal going extinct - Emperor penguin bounce back in second half of century on our low emissions path - Fur seal populations large and likely reach new equilibrium

Talks likely to resume in a couple of days - blockade is limited to Iran and just attempt to pressure Iran - Not likely to last long - Trump likely to Chicken Out as oil prices rise

Update: Hungary's Victor Orban conceded and looks like a 2/3 majority to Tisza / Peter Magyar which means he can change the constitution and undo Orban's changes

Update: Hungary's Victor Orban conceded and looks like a 2/3 majority to Tisza / Peter Magyar which means he can change the constitution and undo Orban's changes

Direct high level talks between Iran and the US in presence of Pakistani mediators in the same room - for first time since 1979 - Four sessions - last one 1.30 - 3.30 am!

Iran ceasefire holds and is very positive - the ceasefire holds so far and many things are promising for it to last

Trump can't end a civilization in 4 hours - COULD get Israel to TEMPORARILY cut major bridges + disconnect major power plants - US generals would refuse - BIG risk is to Trump not US

Trump's tweet does NOT risk larger war in Iran - rather a personal risk to Trump if he gives green light for Israel to attack a large civilian power plant and bridge in Iran - US generals would REFUSE

Trump's tweet does NOT risk larger war in Iran - rather a personal risk to Trump if he gives green light for Israel to attack a large civilian power plant and bridge in Iran - US generals would REFUSE

The missing F-15E American Weapons System Officer has been rescued from Iran - upholding the US Airman's creed - "I will never leave an Airman behind"

Iran likely used very small payloads to try to reach 3,800 km to UK territory of Diego Garcia - mainly symbolic value - Iran now fires few rockets per day at its neighbours - most shot down

World Health Organization prepares Iran for UNLIKELY nuclear accident: mainly hit on power plant - worst case like Fukushima - VERY LOCAL - Israel and US will NOT use a nuke - Iran doesn't have them