BLOG: Hantavirus outbreak on cruise ship is unlikely to spread far
— human to human spread rare
— dozens of disease outbreaks every year of various dieases
— often in small clusters in special conditions
You can read it here:
shortdebunks.substack.com/p/hantavirus...
![TEXT ON GRAPHIC
... we are so extraordinarily strong compared to our principal threat Russia.
... the question which is difficult to answer in public [because it is classified information]
... if we were to get into a war with Russia, how quickly could we get control of the air?
And again that ability to have control of the sea for NATO is phenomenal.
And then the land forces. ... no longer a NATO that thinks if Russia was to ... gain a piece of territory, how do we then fight to get that territory back?
It’s a NATO that sees the risk of territory being invaded and how quickly can it get its land forces in there to block any risk of aggression and territory being grabbed.
... I feel incredibly confident that that’s what NATO’s got and that’s how NATO can keep its citizens safe.
And it’s the overmatch that deters Russia. And I have never been clearer than any time in my career about the success that NATO is having in deterring Russia.
Russia does not want to fight with NATO and Russia does not want a nuclear war and we should be really confident of that.
Admiral Radakin - June 12, 2025
Chief of UK defence staff at the time (now retired)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:v6wtjd5kaov3us6jrdavsdoa/bafkreib3cgunttjcaondir45zz3rikm2cw3mpomo4ta6o5hh2lx2iy2afu)
![TEXT ON GRAPHIC
Security discussions continue – perhaps because of impractical suggestions like this one
Normal to take a lot of talk and many proposals to stop a war
One of many proposals
More practical proposal is to just create buffer zone BOTH SIDES of contact line
Unorthodox proposal for Ukraine to withdraw to create buffer zone
Concedes nearly 3%
Total distance: 384.56 km (238.96 mi)
[rough estimate, line of contact is likely far more adding indentations]
Why the buffer region must have BOTH sides retreat:
400 * 40 = 1,600 km2 = 2.7%, nearly 3% of land area of Ukraine.
It is legally impossible for Zelensky to give up nearly 3% without a referendum
Meloni's plan is current top favorite:
1. sanctions snap back within 24 hours of a new invasion
2. sea and air patrols symbolic - Ukraine does any fighting
3. equipment and logistic support also within 24 hours
But takes time for 30+ countries to agree to anything – then need to interest Russia](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:v6wtjd5kaov3us6jrdavsdoa/bafkreif7ymu5ztvx5pevsiutuoaegc4avxnetcdyjmsu3zvadd2fhv244y)
![TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Why you are safe after the US strike on Iran
nobody will support Iran - and Iran can't do anything
Far less risk than for Trumps 2018 attack on a Syrian chemical weapons factory**
US dropped 6 bunker buster bombs on the same spot
Secret underground facility in desert
No risk to Iranian civilians
US Fordo mission
Secret facility is 80 to 100 meters below the ground (260 to 330 feet)
No radiation hazard
(visited by IAEA atomic inspectors)
Russia and China refused to sell Iran fighter jets or air defences against F-16s
Never mind B-2s, Iran's air defences are gone.
No defence pact or nuclear umbrella with Russia.
Trump must have dropped the bunker buster bombs from the B-2 bomber's maximum altitude of 15 kilometers for maximum penetration.
Russia and China have done NOTHING to help protect Iran from F-16s and will NOT protect it from B-2s.
The Israelis report no Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Israel for 24 hours
US bases have extensive Patriot air defences, also THAAD and marine air defences
Less risk than for the attacks on the chemical weapons factory in Syria in his first term - Iran's air defences are gone and a manpad has no chance.
In this diagram Person A and Person B are second cousins three times removed of each other
Trump is extraordinarily risk averse - with his pledge of no new foreign wars, if just one American soldier or civilian is killed in reprisals everyone they know will be on US TV, even [comic exaggeration / hyperbole] their second cousin three times removed might be on TV about it 😜
Trump would not have authorized this unless he thought the risk to US citizens was 0%](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:v6wtjd5kaov3us6jrdavsdoa/bafkreicx76bvhic3af6t45ujxlgirxr63obpoqsplmhlhshwzipixzgike)
