iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

This is very odd to me...its possible its true, but it raises a number of follow up questions: A) why were the drones loitering over an area 10km away, especially when that area is OBVIOUSLY a military facility?

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Very funny, and also probably true.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

From Jane Nolan's Gaurdians of the Arsenal. I think this turned out to be wrong, in fact. Or at the very least, vastly overestimated how much the public actually cares.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Signed by the author! And yes, its precisely what it sounds like.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Scored one of my long sought afters at the bookstore for 10 bucks

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Having a great time at UChicago talking to AI folks about nuclear deterrence.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Meanwhile, at the other rogue state, Kim Jong Un tours an enrichment site and looks over some warhead designs.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

I wrote about this briefly in my latest blog post. We cannot afford to do that sort of thing in a Taiwan fight. If you're gonna send a Tomahawk after it it better be damn worth it.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

In the White House's new Counterterrorism Strategy released today, narcoterrorists are placed above "Legacy Islamic Terrorists."

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Sometimes history truly is cyclical. In 1967 in order to support the Vietnam war, US pulled formations earmarked for NATO, deployed them to Vietnam, and expended vast amounts of munitions. In order to close the gap the US complained to the allies about their defense expenditure.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Here is the key part: Despite trying, Iran failed to destroy major Israeli HQs and airbases. They did damage, but not enough to ensure deterrence vis-à-vis Israel. We can debate about how effective the strikes precisely were, but the deterrence failure is undeniable.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

An update on how the Iranians are fairing. We're seeing lots of hits on stationary abandoned launchers, which implies either a high missile failure rate or Iranian crews are simply abandoning launchers after firing.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

This is probably correct. Also makes it easier for missile defenses to deal with it.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

One conventional kinetic-only Oreshnik against a small target is not going to do a lot of good, its true. But think about what havoc it could do on the ramps at Ramstein if its packed in a surge scenario. Now think about an entire Oreshnik RTG firing together. 36x9(?) = 324 sub-munitions.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

We have a bad habit of assuming that other countries don't do what the US military does brcauze they choose not to without looking at capabilities. Its why perhaps 75% of normative arguments fall on their face.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

Trying to commit to reading 3-4 books a month. Here is January's reading stack.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

When you eject the floppy disk a little too hard

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

Gunter was streaming himself playing modded HOI4 kicking the shit out if the Russians

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Tom Clancy would have been just an incredible poster. He'd have 500k followers and a name like "TomCatOSINT" or something. He'd have 100 tweet threads on Russian carrier tactics that end with recommendations on the best places in the Barents to place tactical nuclear mines.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

Middlebury Institute of International Studies will be closing down most of its programs by June 2027.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

@iwriteok.bsky.social look at what you have done to my Youtube recommendations

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

By far my favorite piece of new 40K lore is that while the Emperor and Horus fought their duel aboard the Vengeful Spirit, they also played a psychic game of Yu-Gi-Oh! and Horus cheats by just making up new cards

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 22/06/2025

My proposed solution to the problem of CENTCOM shooting all our missiles and to get them to conserve for the Pacific fight:

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 14/06/2025

This is the guy I'm most proud of tho.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 14/06/2025

Meanwhile, finally finishing my possessed. This guy is their leader and he is inches away from being chaos spawn

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

"Whats this line item?" "Counterintelligence, sir" "It says they bought over 10,000 pizzas in FY25?" "Yes, sir"

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Folks, very important question. Should I buy the JFK assassination reenactment car?

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 25/05/2025

North Korea appears to be attempting to lift up their destroyer with methods inspired by Pixar's hit 2009 film Up. Note the numerous balloons in the air above the destroyer.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 11/05/2025

Listen I get a lot of criticism for US defense procurement, but "tacky" is not one of them

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 10/05/2025

My insane too many word tweet on why I hate the stability-instability paradox, reposted here for your amusement. I have more, but this Ethiopian food is awaiting consumption.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

Reading the CN-RU joint statement on strategic stability. The statement on Golden Dome caught my eye: quotes from the preamble of the New START Treaty. I'd interpret this to mean, from the CN/RU perspective, that Golden Dome makes future arms control basically impossible.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 03/05/2025

North Korean factory visit, fairly easy geolocation: its the new production hall at Kusong Tank Factory. 40.056317°, 125.222310°. 20,000 sq/m floor space.

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Another total American cultural victory 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

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