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Decision Desk HQ

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.social
10K followers 9 following 2.8K posts

Fast and reliable results and analysis for elections at every level, from federal to local. Find out more: linktr.ee/decisiondeskhq

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 1h
Find out more and sign up today for Votes Pro: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/pricing
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 1h
What $4.99 gets you with Votes Pro, through Dec. 31: *Decision View *Vote Drop History *Historic election results ...and more! The price goes to $9.99 Monday at 9 am eastern.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 2h
Find our polling averages, forecast, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 2h
DDHQ POLLING AVERAGE UPDATE In New York's gubernatorial race, Democrat Kathy Hochul leads Republican Bruce Blakeman by nearly 12 percentage points. In the DDHQ Forecast, Hochul has a 90% chance to win.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 3h
Find our full forecast and polling averages on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/202...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 3h
DDHQ Senate Forecast Update (10/9) 🟦Democrats - 56% 🟥Republicans - 44% Democrats are favored to flip the Senate, with a projected seat count of 51. The forecast has them leading in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 4h
Find out more and sign up today for Votes Pro: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/pricing
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 4h
Don’t wait until election night to sign up. Introductory pricing for Votes Pro ends after this weekend. One payment of $4.99 covers you through Dec. 31, with Decision View, Vote Drop History, Election Night Pulse and more.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 5h
Why Kansas is on the board, plus the generic ballot and the odds for each chamber:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
📈 Could Democrats actually flip Kansas’s Senate seat?
Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate race in the Sunflower State since 1932
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 5h
94 years: that's how long it's been since Democrats won a Senate race in Kansas. But Democrat Adam Hamilton is running a hair ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in DDHQ's polling average. The DDHQ Forecast still gives Marshall about a 2 in 3 chance. #KSSen
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 7h
Find our Forecast, polling averages, market data, and more on votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 7h
Leans Dem -> Toss Up 🟦Amy Acton - 59% 🟥Vivek Ramaswamy - 41% Ohio's Governor race is back in the Toss Up column. Democrat Amy Acton remains the favorite, and leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in our polling average by a margin of 4.2%.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 8h
Find our Forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 8h
DDHQ POLLING AVERAGE UPDATE Our polling average for Maine's gubernatorial race is live! Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by nearly a 12-point margin. The DDHQ Forecast rates this as Likely Democratic.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Find our forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: Our Nebraska Governor average is live! 🟥 Jim Pillen: 44.2% 🟦 Lynne Walz: 38.6% Republican Jim Pillen leads Democrat Lynne Walz by 5.6 points. The DDHQ Forecast gives Pillen an 85% win probability.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Watch the full conversation on Substack with @chriscillizza.bsky.social, @geoffreyskelley.com & Maddisen Murrell:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
Forecast Update: Democrats have more than 50% chance of flipping both Senate & House
What DDHQ’s 2026 midterm forecast says less than a month out from Election Day
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
How likely is a Democratic sweep of Congress? The DDHQ Forecast puts it at just above 1 in 2. Democrats are clearer favorites in the House and very slight favorites in the Senate.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Find our forecast, polling average, markets, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: Nebraska Senate Our Nebraska Senate polling average is live! Republican Pete Ricketts currently leads independent Dan Osborn by 0.9 points. The DDHQ Forecast gives Ricketts an 80% chance of winning.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Find our forecast, polling average, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Iowa Senate 🟦 Josh Turek: 51% 🟥 Ashley Hinson: 49% Democrat Josh Turek is now favored to win and leads by 2.3 points in the DDHQ polling average. Democrats need to flip four seats to win a majority.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Find our polling averages, forecast, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Ohio Senate 🟦 Sherrod Brown: 52% 🟥 Jon Husted: 48% Brown also leads by 2.6 points in the DDHQ polling average. Democrats need to flip four seats to win Senate control.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
ALASKA 48 contested local elections are being held tonight across The Last Frontier, including mayoral elections in Sitka, Wasilla, and Sand Point. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/elections/20...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
ELECTION NIGHT: Local elections across Alaska. Polls close at 1am eastern time.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Find the DDHQ Forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Texas Senate 🟦 James Talarico: 56% 🟥 Ken Paxton: 44% Talarico has expanded his lead to 2.7 points in the DDHQ polling average. If Democrats flip Texas, their chance of controlling the Senate is 76%.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Find our full Senate forecast on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
In the Michigan Senate race, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a nearly 4-point lead in our polling average. In the DDHQ Forecast, El-Sayed remains the favorite with a 71% win probability. If Democrats hold Michigan, they have a 68% chance of winning a majority in the Senate.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Find our full forecast on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/202...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Texas's 35th congressional district is one of a number of redrawn congressional districts in south Texas. This majority-Hispanic seat is forecasted as a Republican flip, but limited polling has shown a close race. President Trump would have won this seat by around a 10-point margin in 2024.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
How each party clinches a Senate majority, from @geoffreyskelley.com:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
↪️ Path(s) to a Senate Majority ↩️
A look at how different outcomes affect control of the Senate and the most common ways that each party clinches a majority
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Alaska could decide the Senate. The DDHQ Forecast gives Democrats a 56% chance of a majority. If they win Alaska, that rises to 75%. If Republicans hold it, it falls to 26%.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Find our polling averages and forecast on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/generi...
votes.decisiondeskhq.com
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
DDHQ Polling Average Update Democrats lead the generic ballot by almost seven percentage points. Both Republican and Democratic vote shares have seen an uptick in the last few days, with Democrats now at their highest vote share of this cycle.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Find forecasting, polling averages, markets, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Decision Desk HQ Forecast (10/5): 🟦 Democrat Sherrod Brown: 51% 🟥 Republican Jon Husted: 49% Ohio is a coin flip, but Democrats are favored slightly. Democrats need to flip four seats for a Senate majority, and races this close are where that math gets settled.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Find our full forecast on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/5): Democrats are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. 🟦 House: 76% chance · favored in 235 seats 🟦 Senate: 56% chance · favored in 51 seats 🟦Dem control: 53% 🟥GOP control: 23% 🟪Split control: 24%
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Find our polling average and forecast on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
NEW POLLING AVERAGE: Kansas Senate 🟦 Adam Hamilton - 45.6% 🟥 Roger Marshall - 45.4% Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly leads Republican Roger Marshall in our new Kansas polling average. Marshall remains the favorite in the DDHQ Forecast, with a 77% win probability.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
TEXAS South Padre Island has a vacant city council seat, which will be filled by a special election. Two candidates are on the ballot in this nonpartisan race. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-1...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
ELECTION NIGHT: A local election in South Texas. Polls close at 8:00 eastern.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
DDHQ Podcast: Can Susan Collins survive in Maine? Can Sherrod Brown flip Ohio? #MESen #OHSen
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
Episode 46: Can Susan Collins survive in Maine? Can Sherrod Brown flip Ohio?
A look at where things stand in Maine and Ohio’s Senate and gubernatorial races
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Can Susan Collins survive in Maine? On the new DDHQ podcast, Michael Shepherd of the @bangordailynews.bsky.social explains the "Collins bonus" that Republicans and Democrats in the state both build in, and why she could once again outperform in Maine. Episode below.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Find our full forecast on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/202...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
DDHQ Forecast Update: Democrats remain the favorites to flip the Senate. In our forecast, Democrats have a 54% win probability, and are set to win 51 seats. Forecasted flips: Alaska: 60% D Maine: 53% D North Carolina: 82% D Ohio: 51% D Texas: 56% D
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Find our full House forecast on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/202...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
DDHQ Forecast Update: Democrats remain favored to hold the House, with a 75% win probability and a projected seat count of 234. Democrats are forecasted to flip seats in nearly a dozen states from coast to coast.
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