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David J Rovinsky

@davidrovinsky.bsky.social
257 followers 826 following 129 posts

Political scientist & former U.S. diplomat. Comparative politics, federalism, Canada, Australia & the politics of place. ACSUS. Writing South of 45. southof45.substack.com

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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 2h
Le PQ a gagné. Mais qu’a décidé le Québec? Le PQ revient avec 28 % des voix, la CAQ disparaît, mais la question de l’indépendance reste entière. Et Trump complique encore la suite. southof45.substack.com/p/the-parti-... #PolQc
southof45.substack
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 2h
The Parti Québécois won. But what did Quebec decide? The PQ is back with 28% of the vote, the CAQ is gone, and sovereignty remains unsettled. Trump makes the next chapter even more complicated. southof45.substack.com/p/the-parti-... #Quebec2026 #canpol #qcpol
southof45.substack.com
The Parti Québécois Won. What Did Quebec Decide?
Quebec's election brought the sovereigntists back to power, destroyed the governing party, and revealed a political system more fragmented than ever.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Elon Musk just made Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's Trump problem a hundred times worse.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Le PQ a gagné le pouvoir. Il n'a pas gagné le référendum. 28 % des voix. 59 sièges. Gouvernement minoritaire. L'appui à la souveraineté autour de 30 %. Et QS précise déjà que son soutien ne sera pas inconditionnel. Le 5 octobre ouvre la troisième tentative souverainiste. Il ne la règle pas.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Radio-Canada prévoit un gouvernement minoritaire du Parti québécois. Le PQ revient au pouvoir, mais sans majorité et avec environ 29 % du vote populaire. Le résultat constitue une victoire nette pour le PQ, mais pas un mandat référendaire. Et la CAQ? En dehors.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Quebec’s party system, election night 2026: 🔴 PLQ: Red survives and reconsolidates. 🔵 PQ: Reclaims the dominant position on the Blue side. 🔷 PCQ: Establishes a second Blue pole. 🟠 QS: Survives as a distinct left-nationalist force. 🩵 CAQ: En dehors. The CAQ system is over.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Le Parti Québécois dépasse maintenant le seuil de 64 sièges sur le décompte en direct, mais Radio-Canada souligne que plusieurs circonscriptions restent extrêmement serrées, parfois par moins de dix voix. Donc : un gouvernement péquiste est certain. Une majorité péquiste ne l’est pas encore.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
CBC projects a Parti Québécois government in Quebec. Majority or minority is still unclear, but one thing is already clear: the PQ is returning to power, while the CAQ has suffered a dramatic collapse. The size and shape of the mandate still matter.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
An NFL reporter went to Melbourne to cover the 49ers. Within weeks he was analyzing AFL finals, recruiting another American into footy, and reacting to rugby league. The NFL went to Australia to find converts. Australia converted one of the Americans. southof45.substack.com/p/you-can-bo...
southof45.substack.com
You Can Borrow the MCG. You Can't Have September
In Australia, Footy Isn't About Footy
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Brazil’s first round delivered a striking result: Flávio Bolsonaro 47.1%, Lula 45.1%, headed to an Oct. 25 runoff. Meanwhile, Tarcísio won São Paulo 63–36, his allies swept both SP Senate seats, and Bolsonaro’s PL won 28 of 81 senators. A good night for Brazil’s right. #Brazil #Eleições2026
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The NFL filled the MCG. Fremantle came within four minutes of its first flag. Newcastle lost an NRL Grand Final by a point. Different footy, same pronouns: we, us, our. My new South of 45: You Can Borrow the MCG. You Can't Have September. #AFL #NRL #NFL southof45.substack.com/p/you-can-bo...
southof45.substack.com
You Can Borrow the MCG. You Can't Have September
In Australia, Footy Isn't About Footy
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Trump is scrambling Canada’s party system, but that doesn’t yet mean realignment. The new South of 45 essay looks at Carney, Poilievre, the NDP, federalism, and the regional pressures reshaping Canadian politics. #canada #canpol southof45.substack.com/p/trump-is-s...
southof45.substack.com
Trump Is Scrambling Canada’s Party System
Trump is plainly changing the issues around which Canadian politics operates. Existing party electorates are being placed under new pressures and voters are moving across partisan boundaries.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Quebec is the harder test because it separates three possible motives for American right-wing interest in separatism: principle, ideological affinity, and strategic utility. Alberta doesn’t separate them nearly as cleanly. southof45.substack.com/p/my-adversa...
southof45.substack.com
My Adversary Is Donald Trump
What does the American right make of a separatist movement that looks almost nothing like Alberta separatism?
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The old formula was not neutral: Washington preferred Canadian unity, but Canada’s constitutional future was ultimately for Canadians to decide. Trump raises a different question: does Washington still regard Canadian stability itself as an American interest? southof45.substack.com/p/my-adversa...
southof45.substack.com
My Adversary Is Donald Trump
What does the American right make of a separatist movement that looks almost nothing like Alberta separatism?
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Alberta separatism is easy for the American right to understand. Quebec separatism is not. So if the PQ wins, what does the American right make of a separatist movement that looks almost nothing like Alberta’s? #Canada #canpol #quebec #CanadaUS southof45.substack.com/p/my-adversa...
southof45.substack.com
My Adversary Is Donald Trump
What does the American right make of a separatist movement that looks almost nothing like Alberta separatism?
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
A new white paper from Université Laval asks how Canada should adapt its external economic policy to a less predictable U.S. I was pleased to contribute to the conference behind it with my paper on Canada-U.S. integration and the “illusion of stability.” www.esei.ulaval.ca/sites/esei.u...
esei.ulaval.ca
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Delighted to see this out in the new issue of JACANZS. I compare Western Australia and Alberta as resource-rich regions where secessionist politics increasingly turns on federalism, redistribution, and the terms of the federal bargain rather than nationalism alone.
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Reposted by David J Rovinsky
JACANZS @jacanzs.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
An interesting article by David J. Rovinsky on ‘Beyond Nationalism? Resource Federalism and Regional Secessionism in Western Australia and Alberta’ in Vol. 6 of JACANZS. #Alberta #Federalism #ResourcePolitics #Secession #WesternAustralia doi.org/10.52230/DXR...
doi.org
‘Beyond Nationalism? Resource Federalism and Regional Secessionism in Western Australia and Alberta’
David J. Rovinsky david@rovinsky.net Journal of Australian, Canadian, and Aotearoa New Zealand Studies 6 (September 2026): 37-76, Abstract: This article compares secessionist politics in Western Au…
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
WA’s GST revolt was built around “30 cents back in the dollar.” Technically misleading, politically devastating. Once WA’s relativity hit 0.30, equalization could be sold as punishment for success. southof45.substack.com/p/the-austra... #auspol #ausecon
southof45.substack.com
The Australian GST: One Tax, Two Bargains
Twenty-six years after Australians began paying the GST, the tax itself hasn't moved. But everything around it keeps changing.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Australia’s GST has barely changed in 26 years. The federal bargain around it has. My new South of 45 essay looks at the stalled tax switch, WA’s equalization revolt, and why the 2018 fix now looks politically permanent. southof45.substack.com/p/the-austra... #auspol #ausecon
southof45.substack.com
The Australian GST: One Tax, Two Bargains
Twenty-six years after Australians began paying the GST, the tax itself hasn't moved. But everything around it keeps changing.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Vermont spent decades protecting itself from the costs of growth. What happens when scarcity becomes the bigger threat? southof45.substack.com/p/the-vermon... #Vermont #Housing #Abundance #PoliticalEconomy
southof45.substack.com
The Vermont Settlement
The political system that became very good at protecting Vermont from the costs of rapid development has proven much less adept at confronting the costs of too little development.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is now set: Lula versus Flávio Bolsonaro. But the deeper story is succession. southof45.substack.com/p/the-brazil... #Brazil #BrazilElection2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro #LatinAmerica #BrazilianPolitics
southof45.substack.com
The Brazilian Election: Battle of the Irreplaceables
The unresolved succession has become entangled with another question: whether the institutional and international conflicts of the Lula-Bolsonaro era will survive them as well.
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Reposted by David J Rovinsky
David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
One Nation is polling around 30%. Who are these voters? Donald Warren’s 1976 “Middle American Radicals” may offer a research question: is the alienated middle more than American? southof45.substack.com/p/the-middle... #auspol #OneNation #PaulineHanson #AustralianPolitics
southof45.substack.com
The Middle American Radicals "Down Under": Donald Warren, One Nation and Australia's Politics of Alienation
What sort of constituency has become available to Australia's One Nation, and can the party organize that constituency well enough to convert a polling surge into lasting power?
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
One Nation is polling around 30%. Who are these voters? Donald Warren’s 1976 “Middle American Radicals” may offer a research question: is the alienated middle more than American? southof45.substack.com/p/the-middle... #auspol #OneNation #PaulineHanson #AustralianPolitics
southof45.substack.com
The Middle American Radicals "Down Under": Donald Warren, One Nation and Australia's Politics of Alienation
What sort of constituency has become available to Australia's One Nation, and can the party organize that constituency well enough to convert a polling surge into lasting power?
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
How does the Parti Québécois' "Livre bleu" stand up when read through the lens of comparative politics? southof45.substack.com/p/beyond-the... #Quebec #Canada #CanadianPolitics #Federalism #PoliticalScience #Constitution #SouthOf45
southof45.substack.com
Beyond the Blueprint: Reading the Parti Québécois' Livre bleu
The document represents an effort to present sovereignty as an exercise in competent governance rather than romantic nationalism.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Why does the CFL constantly compare itself to the NFL, while the AFL rarely thinks about American football at all? The answer isn't the rules—it's institutional ecology. Football as comparative politics. #CFL #AFL #Canada #Australia southof45.substack.com/p/more-than-...
southof45.substack.com
More Than a Game: Canadian and Australian Football as National Institutions
They are two of the world's most successful examples of national sporting institutions developing alongside far larger international competitions.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Is Vermont spending too much time managing scarcity instead of reducing it? Housing, labor, childcare, healthcare, and demographics all point to the same underlying challenge: capacity. southof45.substack.com/p/managing-s... #Vermont #Housing #Economics #PoliticalEconomy
southof45.substack.com
Managing Scarcity or Reducing It?
Political debates begin with the question, "Who should get these expensive things?" Vermont needs to begin one step earlier and ask, "Why is there so little of them?"
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Québec's new international policy isn't most interesting for what it says about Québec. It's most interesting for what it says about the world. Beyond Gérin-Lajoie, the province is adapting to an age of geopolitics. southof45.substack.com/p/beyond-ger... #Quebec #Canada #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy
southof45.substack.com
Beyond Gérin-Lajoie: Québec in an Age of Geopolitics
Québec's new policy asks a new question: how should it protect its interests when the international system itself has become less stable, less predictable, and increasingly geopolitical?
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
What do Vermont and Tasmania have in common? More than you think. Both are aging, beautiful places struggling with housing shortages, workforce gaps, and the consequences of becoming too attractive. southof45.substack.com/p/dont-jerse... #Vermont #Tasmania #PublicPolicy #Australia
southof45.substack.com
Don't Jersey Vermont. Don't Melbourne Tasmania.
At first glance, Vermont and Tasmania seem unlikely candidates for comparison. Yet they are strikingly similar in ways that matter politically and economically.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Québec's latest language report raises a question that extends beyond francization: How do governments know whether their programs are actually working? open.substack.com/pub/southof4... #Quebec #Canada #CanadianPolitics #PublicPolicy #StateCapacity #LanguagePolicy #Governance
open.substack.com
When Government Can't Measure Success: The Limits of Francization
Québec is no longer merely concerned with whether newcomers can learn French. It is increasingly concerned with whether they choose to live their private lives in French.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
The Canadiens. The Blue Jays. The CFL. Three sports stories. Three different Canadian responses to the same problem: how do you remain distinct when integration is always more profitable? southof45.substack.com/p/playing-ne... #Canada #CFL #NHL #BlueJays
southof45.substack.com
Playing Next to a Giant: Sports, Scale, and the Future of Canadian Institutions
Canadian teams may be members of these leagues, but the leagues themselves are not Canadian institutions. Their strategic priorities, are shaped by American market realities.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Everyone thinks Pope Leo XIV wrote an encyclical about AI. He actually wrote about power, sovereignty, and who will shape the digital age. A look at Magnifica Humanitas through the lens of Rerum Novarum. #Catholic #AI #PopeLeoXIV #PoliticalEconomy southof45.substack.com/p/the-pope-e...
southof45.substack.com
The Pope Everyone Thinks Was Writing About AI
The real question Leo XIV is asking is not whether AI is good or bad. It is whether humanity retains the capacity to govern technological change rather than be governed by it.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Can democracies unwind an asset bubble once enough voters depend on it? Australia is about to find out. southof45.substack.com/p/the-budget... #auspol #Budget2026 #housing #PoliticalEconomy
southof45.substack.com
The Budget Australia Had to Have: Jim Chalmers Found His Inner Paul Keating
The 2026 budget suggests the Albanese government has concluded that the old Howard-era equilibrium is no longer socially sustainable.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Vermont now has the lowest birth rate in the United States. The deeper story is economic insecurity: a generation not convinced stability is attainable through ordinary work. southof45.substack.com/p/vermonts-b... #Vermont #Demography #BirthRate #Housing #PoliticalEconomy #NewEngland #Economics
southof45.substack.com
Vermont’s Baby Bust and the Failed Green Mountain Model
For decades, Vermont feared becoming too crowded. Now it increasingly faces the possibility of becoming too old, and too expensive.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Canada-U.S. integration was supposed to reduce vulnerability. What if it often transmits it? New essay on shocks, political risk, and why access is not resilience.  southof45.substack.com/p/when-shock... #Canada #Trade #CUSMA #PoliticalRisk #CdnPoli
southof45.substack.com
When Shocks Return: Canada-U.S. Free Trade and the Illusion of Stability
A succession of events over the past quarter century has exposed the limits of treating shocks as rare interruptions. They are less exceptional and more structural.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Australia isn’t just “the lucky country.” Distance acts as insulation—reducing pressure to reform until shocks hit. The problem isn’t failure. It’s success without urgency. southof45.substack.com/p/australia-... #Australia #PoliticalEconomy #ComparativePolitics #PublicPolicy
southof45.substack.com
Australia: The Lucky Country Problem
Distance, combined with resource wealth and strategic alignment, has created space, time to adjust, time to delay, and time to avoid hard decisions.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Not all Christians read the end times the same way. Catholic doctrine rejects prophetic timelines, and with them, the idea that war fulfills history. southof45.substack.com/p/revelation... #Catholic #Eschatology #ReligionAndPolitics #ForeignPolicy #Theology
southof45.substack.com
Revelation Without Armageddon: Why Catholic Doctrine Resists End-Times Politics
The Catholic Church lives in expectation of Christ’s return, but not to anticipate its timing or to identify its precursors in specific political developments.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Why do many American evangelicals see the Iran war in theological—not political—terms? Eschatology shapes U.S. foreign policy in ways we rarely acknowledge. southof45.substack.com/p/apocalypse... #Evangelicals #Israel #Eschatology #ReligionAndPolitics #ForeignPolicy
southof45.substack.com
Apocalypse and Foreign Policy: How Evangelical Theology Shapes American Views of Israel and the Iran War
Evangelical support for Israel can be both intense but not rooted in shared religious identity.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Mark Carney’s Davos speech talked about a “rupture” in the international order. Canada and Australia are both learning what that means for middle powers that depend on a stable system. #Canada #Australia #ForeignPolicy #Geopolitics #Davos southof45.substack.com/p/strategic-...
southof45.substack.com
Strategic Cousins in a Fragmenting Order: Canada, Australia, and the Return of Middle-Power Diplomacy
The return of middle-power diplomacy in a world where stability must be built more actively than it was in the late twentieth century.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
The Bill 21 case may show the real limit of the 1982 Constitution. The courts can decide the law — but they may not be able to hold together a country that no longer agrees on what liberal democracy means. southof45.substack.com/p/bill-21-at... #Canada #Quebec #Bill21 #Charter #Federalism
southof45.substack.com
Bill 21 at the Supreme Court: Quebec Nationalism, Laïcité, and the Limits of Liberal Canada
The Bill 21 hearings are about whether Canada can continue to function as a multinational federation in which different societies interpret liberal principles in different ways.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
WAxit and Wexit: Western Australia and Alberta show why resource-rich regions keep questioning the federal bargain. Different politics, same structural tension. southof45.substack.com/p/waxit-and-... #Canada #Australia #CDNPol #AusPol #Federalism #PoliticalEconomy
southof45.substack.com
WAxit and Wexit: Why Resource Regions Keep Talking About Leaving Federations
The tensions built into resource-based federal systems never fully disappear. The question of whether the bargain is still fair always resurfaces.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
A Vermont pastoral letter — but the real story is demographic math. Baptisms & marriages down. Priests aging. Institutions re-scaling. It mirrors Vermont’s challenge: endogenous vs exogenous growth. #Vermont #Demography #PoliticalEconomy southof45.substack.com/p/a-pastoral...
southof45.substack.com
A Pastoral Letter and the Arithmetic of Vermont: Demography, the Interface Economy, and Institutional Capacity
The Diocese of Burlington’s predicament is not an isolated ecclesial drama. It is a visible manifestation of Vermont’s demographic arithmetic.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
Poilievre won 87.4% of his party but never mentioned Trump. Canada’s populism sits inside the CPC, not outside it. Add Alberta sovereignty + snap-election risk, and the frame gets fragile. #CdnPoli #CanadianPolitics #Conservatives #Trump #Alberta southof45.substack.com/p/sovereignt...
southof45.substack.com
Sovereignty Without Ownership: Poilievre, Trump, and the Canadian Right
Poilievre has won his party decisively. The harder task is persuading a broadly anti-Trump electorate that Canadian conservatism even wants to defend national sovereignty.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
After two Albanese victories, Australia’s Right can’t agree what it’s for: governing competence or culture war. Coalition broken twice, One Nation filling the vacuum. Calm keeps winning. #AusPol #AustralianPolitics #Politics #Media #Journalism #Populism southof45.substack.com/p/losing-to-...
southof45.substack.com
Losing to Calm: The Australian Right After Two Albanese Victories
The Australian Right lacks authoritative answers to questions it has not resolved: whether conservatism is primarily about governing competence or cultural confrontation.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
Alberta’s alienation from Ottawa is no longer just rhetoric—it now has a governing blueprint. The Alberta Next Panel report shows populism turning procedural. #cdnpoli #abpoli #federalism #populism #provincialpowers southof45.substack.com/p/alberta-ne...
southof45.substack.com
Alberta Next: From Populist Grievance to Governing Blueprint
This is not populism as tantrum. What is striking about the Alberta Next Panel’s recommendations is how little culture war they actually contain.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
“I’ll drink alcohol ’til my friends come home for Christmas.” Noah Kahan nailed something real. A look at Vermont’s holiday diaspora, aging, and the people the state can’t afford to keep. #Vermont #StickSeason southof45.substack.com/p/til-my-fri...
southof45.substack.com
’Til My Friends Come Home for Christmas: The Vermont Diaspora Returns
This is not a moral critique. It is empirical. An economy can handle aging if it is balanced by a large, stable base of working-age adults. Vermont’s problem is that this balance is breaking down.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
The VT Futures Project’s new Business Climate Survey captures what employers are feeling: workforce shortages, housing pressure, rising costs. The harder question is whether Vermont’s problems are about growth—or deeper structural dependence. #Vermont #Economy southof45.substack.com/p/vermonts-b...
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
As my math teachers always said, "show your work." This should be fun.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Brussels is a French-speaking metropolis inside Dutch Flanders, yet it avoids the linguistic tensions that shape Montreal.. #Brussels #Montreal #Linguistics #Belgium #Quebec #Multilingualism #EU #UrbanStudies #LanguagePolicy southof45.substack.com/p/brussels-a...
southof45.substack.com
Brussels: A Linguistic Metropolis That Refuses to Become Montréal
Brussels feels like a place where multilingualism has become second nature, not an ideological project but simply how life works.
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David J Rovinsky @davidrovinsky.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Belgium and Canada offer a sharp comparison: two bilingual federations managing territorial vs personality language regimes, economic imbalances, and autonomist pressures. #CanPol #Canada #Quebec #Flanders #Belgium #Federalism #ComparativePolitics #Bilingualism southof45.substack.com/p/twin-feder...
southof45.substack.com
Twin Federations: Canada and Belgium, Bilingual States in Permanent Negotiation
Belgium is the world's most elaborate exercise in territorial linguistic federalism; Canada is the world's most ambitious experiment in nationwide individual bilingual rights.
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