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David Epstein

@davidnotdave.bsky.social
1.2K followers 1.1K following 124 posts

Literature major, then neuroscience Ph.D., then addiction researcher. Enough-knowledge-to-endanger-myself in social sciences and statistics. He/him. Views my own.

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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
NIH does not have an institutional subscription to Nature Mental Health or Nature Reviews Psychology. They are offensively expensive publications, but that doesn’t stop NIH from subscribing to Nature Nanotechnology or Nature Plants or…
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
My red text is on the right-hand side of the screencap. If you understand factor analysis and/or the circumplex model of affect, please explain it to me as if I were a toddler. And please don't be mean.
Screencap of "Independence and Bipolarity in the Structure of Current Affect" (1998), but Lisa Feldman Barrett and James Russell.  My question is about how valence and arousal can be independent of each other while being represented as the circumference of a circle (whereby changes in one will restrict the range of the other).  Shouldn't they be the full interior of a square?
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Here's a study protocol (no results, just protocol), newly published in a peer-reviewed journal. Looking at the dates, I don't know why. If you want your protocol publicly available, just put it on a preprint server.
To appear in:
Contemporary Clinical Trials Communications
Received Date: 2 June 2025
Revised Date: 5 June 2026
Accepted Date: 26 June 2026

Results
This study is ongoing and data collection is expected to be concluded in July 2025, with plans to publish the study results by November 2025.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
The main thing I do for fun is cross-mispronounce "Anthropic" and "biopic."
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Not sure how this figures into the ol' h-index.
Screencap from John Oliver's May 4 "Last Week Tonight," showing a paper about tianeptine that was written by Kirsten Smith, Jeff Rogers, Justin Strickland, and me.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Made my own sign for No Kings. No use of generative AI here. I did it the way the Amish would do it: Photoshop.
A graph of approval/disapproval ratings for 47 as their shape widens over time like a sideways letter V (disapproval up from 41% to 62%, approval down from 47% to 36%).  They form a set of shark's teeth, inside the mouth of a shark in pursuit of him.  Header, above the shark: "Help him 'tank.'"
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
The brain-disease model of addiction (BDMA) isn’t a model at all. As best I can tell, the BDMA is “addiction is a brain disease.” That’s best described as a slogan or a credo. It makes no falsifiable predictions. (1/2)
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
He's right. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘈𝘳𝘦 𝘔𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 (2013) deserves FAR more good attention. It has all the things that make zombie movies potentially great, without the thing that makes them bad (they inevitably try to have fun with gun violence; this one doesn't, at least not yet, with 30 minutes to go).
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Reposted by David Epstein
Schooley @schooley.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
Republican rhetoric all week was clearly aiming to either depress turnout or inspire visible maga pushback. Neither happened and the press doesn’t seem particularly interested in exploring the implications of that.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
Signs made for tomorrow. Because every season is spooky season!
Side one of sign: Stephen King's "Misery" book cover Photoshopped to say "No Kings, Less Misery."

Side two of sign: Stephen King's "It" book cover Photoshopped to say "Kings Ain't It."
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Most papers presenting psychological questionnaires don't specify whether respondents should see the title of the questionnaire. And papers rarely say whether respondents did see the titles. Everybody who uses questionnaires: how do you handle titles when the questionnaire gives no guidance?
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
I’m proud of the way this paper turned out. We said: --Stop revictimizing people. Don’t say, “You were sexually abused, so you’re more prone to iatrogenic addiction, so we won't prescribe opioids for your pain.” --Monitor whole communities. link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11469-025-01527-w
Text excerpts from "Latent Classes of Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) and Adult Substance-use Problems and Psychosocial Outcomes: Complex and Heterogeneous Associations." (International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction)
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
When I see IRT used on psychological/psychiatric inventories, I question "difficulty." Low correct-response rates reflect difficulty if items measure knowledge or skill. But symptom/trait/state endorsement? Low "yes" rates may mean many things--not a construct called "difficulty." Change my mind.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
Unsuccessful trial, good preprint. I fervently hope the final sentence makes it through peer review.
Micro interventions based on real-time monitoring of affective instability: a proof-of- concept study.
Merlijn Olthof et al.

Excerpt 1 of 3:
Design: We used a quasi-randomized within-person experimental design for testing the micro-intervention effects during increased EWMSD [exponentially weighted moving standard deviation of affect ratings] vs. control periods (with EWMSD below the threshold). At the start of the study, participants were assigned at random to one of two phases: the experimental phase (micro-intervention is applied when there is increased EWMSD) and the control phase (micro-intervention is applied semi-randomly). 
[David’s comment: This is the appropriate control for Forer effects, and no one else ever uses it!]

Excerpt 2 of 3:
Interestingly, from the data viewing sessions, we also learned that there was a large heterogeneity in how persons experienced - and reacted to - the intervention and burst measurements. While some persons were really enthusiastic about the intervention, others found it annoying or confronting because they found that they had no time to engage in the intervention. Some persons never actually performed the activity they selected, some nearly always performed it in the next 30 minutes, but others used it as 'a reminder'…
[David’s comment: This is the kind of frankness we need more of.]

Excerpt 3 of 3: 
These results can inform future research, which, who knows, may at some point be able test the hypothesis that we were after.
[David’s comment: OK, marry me.]
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
I've been telling people how the use of full labeling on an ordinal response scale can clarify what you get from a survey/EMA item. I didn't mean this.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
New weekend of Tesla Takedown protests, new two-sided sign. (I'm reading 𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘦, Christine Wenc's excellent book about the history of The Onion.)
Side one of sign, from an old issue of the Onion's "American Voices" feature: "Phrases like 'massive redistribution of wealth' have historically brought rivers of blood. That said, it's time for a massive redistribution of wealth."

Side two of sign:  "Austerity? You go first, E.M.  I'll join in if it looks good."
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
New sign made for tomorrow's Tesla Takedown. As a scientist, I've had it drummed into me--you're always supposed to show data.
Graph of Tesla stock freefalling: "You can't keep a good man down.  But THIS schmuck?  You can."
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Barnum/Forer effect by proxy: That's when researchers think a published scale measures their construct of interest because the scale has exactly the right title (plus the usual reliability metrics and validity claims). The items on the scale are weird and repetitious, but only respondents see it.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
My two-sided sign for today's "Hands Off" protest outside the Social Security Administration building in Catonsville, MD. The Baltimore Banner put the crowd at "over 300," but I think it was 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 over that. And Catonsville is but a suburb.
Side one of sign: "Let's get a little more juice in that third rail."

Side two of sign: "Uncap FICA."
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
There’s more to it, but perhaps one piece of what we’re seeing in national politics is the outcome of a tech/business culture in which affirmative meanings started inhering in word “disrupt.” I was raised to have that word default to the pejorative.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Going cold, turkey. I saw this paper on April 1, but it was not published on April 1.
Abstract:
Craving is a central phenomenon in cocaine use disorder (CUD), significantly influencing relapse risk and treatment outcomes. The STANDUP® method, an innovative telemedicine-based intervention, integrates structured behavioral modification, cognitive restructuring and digital therapeutics to target reward, relief and obsessive craving subtypes.

The six-month structured routine program includes daily behavioral exercises that focus on:

• Breaking addictive cycles through structured daily planning (Mappa del Giorno).
• Cold showers as a physiological and psychological tool for increasing self-discipline and stress tolerance.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
This title made me happy out of all proportion to the stimulus. I want to thank it. Right now it's only a preprint. Together, psychological-science Bluesky, we can commit to editor/reviewer stances that might bring it all the way to publication. And that would be kinda great.
Alcohol use disorder symptoms are kinda detectable in daily life (but it depends on how they are operationalized)

Kevin King
Dani Kang
Megan Schultz
Christine Lee
Jonas Dora
Cassandra Boness
Ashley Watts
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
On both sides of the road in Owings Mills, MD, there were ~200 of us making it less socially comfortable to do business with Tesla. It matters. Purchases are elections that happen every day. Nearly nonstop response of thumbs-up honking from drivers-by, including 18-wheelers. Salt of the earth.
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Reposted by David Epstein
Miri Forbes @miriforbes.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
-‘Internalizing’ is much narrower than the current model suggests (but a broader dimension like ‘emotional dysfunction’ could be useful to group the fear, distress, eating pathology, sexual problems, and somatoform domains) -Harmful substance use should be distinct from core externalizing 2/2
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Article in JAMA Psychiatry: "Are Psychiatric Nosologies Limiting the Success of Clinical Prediction Models?" Authors say yes. Eh. Counterpoint 1 of 2: Automated detection/prediction is usually also inaccurate for discrete, verifiable behavioral events, such as instances of drug use. (1/2)
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
I had an invitation lined up for my virtual attendance to #ACNP2024, but we left it too long, and ACNP has shut the door. Attendees, please post prolifically about the goings-on. I ask with puppydog eyes. If puppydog eyes could talk.
From the ACNP website: "NEW in 2024: Member invited guest invitations will be limited to 400. The College has reached the limit of 400 member guest invitations. Member guest invitations are no longer available for the 2024 Annual Meeting."
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
People who study norm-based interventions for behavior change: Is there any work that speaks, even indirectly, to the social effects of "We believe..." yard signs and other such displays of decency?
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
I'm here mostly for the next incarnation of what was Science Twitter, but sometimes I'll also post things such as this. By "this," I mean a life-giving, strength-bolstering playlist for our times, from my friend Meredith.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
I'd like to see more of this in science: say what decisions you made, in what order, and why. Btw, it's not about preregistration. Dishonest people can "preregister" analyses they've already done. Honest people can be honest without preregistering. It's the honesty and clarity I applaud.
At the time of preregistration, we liked this idea because it is a more stringent criterion compared to statistical significance. However, applying this criterion in practice made us realize that this is not the most suitable strategy for replication: 1) it is arguably overly stringent, requiring near-perfect alignment between the studies, which is unrealistic given natural sampling variability; 2) it can lead to an apparent lack of replication even if estimates are close if Cls are narrower in the replication study. For that reason, below we discuss our results both in light of this preregistered criterion and the overall strength and direction of effects.
Megan E. Schultz, M.S.
Jonas Dora, Ph.D.
Kevin M. King Ph.D.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
Apparently I've tweeted 1,295 times. Whereas, here, I've made only 30 noises. So I have a self-conscious feeling like I'm putting prints into flat snow.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 31/10/2024
I think this is the first year we've ever created a pumpkin situation here. Jack o'liberty. Treats were issued a moment ago to a smol RBG.
Illuminated white pumpkin on our steps, HARRIS-WALZ '24 carved in.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 14/10/2024
That would work.
Mood induction:

Three 233-second-long videos were shown to participants on a 35-inch color television. The boring video was created for this study and portrayed two men hanging laundry, occasionally asking each other for a peg. We validated this clip in a separate study of 48 participants (mean age 21.5 years; 33 female) to ensure the video reliably induced feelings of boredom
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 14/06/2024
Our new #kratom paper explains frankly why we're putting these data into press now.  Sometimes you publish because you don't want to soft-pedal or file-drawer counterpoints to your other work.   www.frontiersin.org/journals/pharmacology/articles/10.3389/fphar.2024.1412397/
...the following report, which we originally planned to publish in 2023. We had initially framed it as an update on a rapidly evolving situation of kratom product diversification...but we now offer it for a more enduring purpose: to help ensure that peer-reviewed publications about kratom do not reflect the polarization seen in popular discourse. If specific groups of investigators consistently emphasize only positive or only negative aspects of kratom use, the credibility of their contributions may suffer. Our recent publications about kratom largely illustrated how kratom use appears to benefit many consumers. Most of our participants had found products and dosage patterns that appeared...satisfactory to them and not detrimental to their health or daily functioning. We stand by those findings, but we have always noted that they are not the whole story....Here, we give voice to consumers who believe that their  relationship with kratom was not unambiguously positive or beneficial...
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 12/06/2024
Regression to the mean has always baffled me. Unless it works like this. People with the most extreme values at Time X will usually have less-extreme values at Time X+1, but others, initially less extreme, will drift out and replace them. So it's more like "shuffling at the extremes." Yes, no?
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 01/05/2024
Does anyone know of a blinded study in which a liquid medication (probably somewhat bitter) was matched to liquid placebo with any reported detail about how the respective flavors were checked? Every paper I've found has seemed to say "trust us, they matched."
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 18/04/2024
"Did you come up with a snappy title for our paper?" "I sure did!" "Great! And you checked to make sure it hasn't been used before?" "Oh, this is guaranteed fresh."
Screenshot of paper titles from a Google Scholar search:
From lab to life: Evaluating the reliability and validity of psychophysiological data from wearable devices in laboratory and ambulatory settings.
From Lab to Life: Bridging Gaps in Motion Capture to Increase Public Usability through Integrated Hardware and Software Solutions.
From Lab to Life: Phoneme Recognition Systems Making a Difference in Assistive Technologies.
From lab to life: Decoding the predictive power of present bias on adolescent self-control behaviors.
From lab to life: how wearable devices can improve health equity.
From Lab to Life: Challenges and Perspectives of fNIRS for Hemodynamic Neurofeedback in Real-World Environments.
From lab to life: Fine-grained behavior monitoring in the elderly's home.
Serial versus concurrent multitasking: From lab to life.
Translations in gerontology: From lab to life: Psychophysiology and speed of response.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 05/04/2024
"Convenience sample" is such a sneering term for something that's often excruciatingly effortful. I hear it in Dana Carvey's Church Lady voice.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 16/03/2024
This thing is making a reappearance on Twitter, and no one appears to know that the answer is zero. Good luck claiming your earned-income tax credit on those gains, cowboy.
I bought a cow for $800. I sold it for $1000. I bought it again for $1100.1
sold it again for $1300. How much did I earn?
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 08/03/2024
You could say that scientists have a compulsion to fold things, but that would be unfair. Scientists have a compulsion to fold things a specified number of times. (Screenshot: quasirandom selection from papers I've recently read.)
text excerpts:

"The importance of the results from Study I are threefold."

"The argument against class criterion-oriented psychometrics is thus two-fold."

"the number of pharmacies distributing buprenorphine was 43.1-fold greater than OTPs distributing methadone in 2010. However, this ratio decreased to 33.3-fold in 2021."

"MOR agonist that is 100-fold more potent than morphine"

"Aims were threefold.  In study one..."

"The aim of the simulation study was threefold."

"two-fold higher than crystal MDMA"
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 19/02/2024
"Orange you glad we didn't maintain a data column labeled 'methamphetamine'?"
Screenshot from a published protocol called "Personalized Deep Learning for Substance Use in Hawaii: Protocol for a Passive Sensing and EMA Study."  

Excerpt:  "As a precaution, the interface on the app will not be labeled as 'substance consumption' and 'substance use' but rather as 'banana consumption' and 'banana use.' Furthermore, our data will be stored and labeled as 'fruit' rather than 'substance use.'"
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 15/02/2024
I kinda startled myself with this little experiment in power calculations. You can have zero ability to find the effect you're looking for, but more than zero "power," all of which reflects your likelihood of overestimating the effect.
If your sample size is 50, then the smallest correlation that will be statistically significant (at .05, two-tailed) is .28.

An observed r of .27 in that sample cannot be statistically significant (at .05, two-tailed).

And yet…

A power analysis would tell you that you have 48% power to detect that correlation with n = 50.

The power analysis actually means you have a 48% probability of getting a p value <.05 with n = 50. When that happens, it can only mean that the correlation in your sample is spuriously large: bigger than .27.

It's impossible, with n=50, to detect the correlation at its true size (r=.27) and have it be statistically significant.

Presumably, this problem is less extreme at conventional power levels (80% or more), but the underlying fact seems to remain.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 05/12/2023
I really liked the discussions of equity, privacy, and consent in this big-data study group at #ACNP2023.
The Science and Ethics of Measuring and Modeling Individual and Group Behavior. 

Cheryl Corcoran, Chair.  Holly Moore, Co-Chair.  Elizabeth Stafford, Moderator.  Laura Cabrera, Justin Baker, Tingting Liu, Satrajit Ghosh, and Sara Berger, Participants.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 23/10/2023
I mostly love Mike Flanagan's movies and series, but his 𝘏𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘜𝘴𝘩𝘦𝘳 adaptation asserts that opioid analgesia is an essentially illegitimate aim ("there's no such thing as a painkiller"). Ugh.
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 21/10/2023
This is why I'm glad there's a section for confidential comments to the editor.
I don’t usually say “reject.”  I usually say, “Just present the findings more tentatively.”  And I’m sure the authors will want to do so.  They’ll say something like, “Let’s publish this as a preliminary finding.  It will inspire future research to resolve the ambiguities.”  But it’s not a case of “no harm done.”  People love genetics and they love to overread it.  There will be a press release and a tweet and a TikTok dance, all trumpeting how genes determine...
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David Epstein @davidnotdave.bsky.social · 05/10/2023
My first-ever Bluesky post is an ask: Do any of you have procedures/advice for giving/coding a TLFB (timeline follow-back) for drugs that aren't alcohol? Especially opioids in the age of fentanyl, with which it's probably harder than ever for people to know the identity or amount of what they got?
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