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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

They would be... if it wasn't retaliation. But if the something that embarrassed the company or that made employees feel threatened was the very thing that was exposed which is being retaliated for - specifically feeling unsafe in the wake of the Arday fraud exposure - that's textbook retaliation!

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

It sounds like the people who are firing him were responsible for overseeing the hiring, and were grossly negligent in their jobs in several ways, either in the hiring, or in the pretextual firing that was either retaliation, or on the basis of things explicitly publicly discussed when he was hired!

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

It is, according to the stochastic parrot Google has replaced search with:

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

Did you? He was explicitly told that this was partially because people didn't like what he did in exposing Arday's fraud. And I agree he was an asshole about it. But that's still prima facie evidence that it was, in fact, partly retaliation for what he did!

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

Oh, I certainly agree he's an ass, and I've know that for a couple years. But that's not the question. The question is whether it's OK for Ghent to fire him base on things they knew when he was hired, as a pretext to engage in retaliation. And it seems like we're talking past one another.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

I strongly agree with @evoroseman.bsky.social's points there - but if this was about a poor hire and bad science, it doesn't agree with the claims in the letter explaining his firing, where they explicitly note that this was largely, in fact, about the Arday incident and the reaction.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

As I just said: bsky.app/profile/davi...

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

I'd love to see arguments about the facts and norms that are relevant here - what I see instead is a bizarre level of deference to those who are alleged to have engaged in retaliation when they say it was for the pretextual reasons which they can't disclose details about.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

Right, and imposing consequences in response to something is also often called retaliation. No one is saying Ghent should renew his contract, they are saying that firing him on pretextual grounds, *even if those would otherwise have been sufficient* is now unacceptable, because it is retaliation.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

1. I'm not defending what you're claiming I'm defending. 2. You say it's not in retaliation, but that's not credible given that they effectively said the press and coverage around Arday was what made it a problem. 3. Academics are generally free to do other things and aren't kept on tight leashes.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

Also, MacAskill tried to resolve part of this. (He's now the big proponent, and has developed this, but to be fair the idea was not at all novel to him, and was discussed extensively over a decade ago on lesswrong, etc.) www.forethought.org/research/the... bsky.app/profile/zach...

forethought.org

The Saturation View

Will MacAskill presents a new theory of population ethics: the Saturation View.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

I disagree with total utilitarianism generally, as well as not being utilitarian myself, but my biggest pet peeve in this space is infinite ethics, which is simply not based in reality. (Annoyed enough to write a paper about it: philarchive.org/rec/MANWIT-6)

philarchive.org

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

None of this is an argument that it wasn't retaliation, it's just saying that retaliation is fine. And that's a fine position, but it doesn't match the claim that they "support academic freedom 100 per cent" - saying anti-social ideas are disallowed is almost the opposite! aa.com.tr/en/europe/gh...

aa.com.tr

Ghent University defends suspension of researcher who accused late Cambridge professor of plagiarism

Rector Petra De Sutter rejects claims disciplinary case against Nathan Cofnas restricts academic freedom | Anadolu

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

1. I think that they will have a hard time justifying that they didn't know those things about him when they hired him. 2. Retaliation is a problem, and the burden of proof is on the University to make the case - and not to say "trust us, it's not retaliation, but we can't tell you more about why."

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

The reasoning seems clear; right now, it sounds like you're maintaining that if someone is "improperly" hired, then the company should be allowed to fire them to retaliate for, say, reporting a superior for harassment or lawbreaking, on the basis of the things they knew when hiring the person?

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

Again, the fact that Cofnas is wrong, and is a bad person, doesn't mean that Ghent is not doing anything wrong by firing him! So whether or not I think that Ghent should have hired him, once they did so, they can't decide to fire him in retaliation for what should be protected conduct.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

Yes, I certainly agree that the suggestion in the op-ed not to punish Cofnas because otherwise people will commit suicide out of spite was absolutely vile. And Cofnas is also a gross person. But bad arguments for a claim don't invalidate good ones; none of that changes that this was retaliation.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

I don't think I can be any clearer about my opposition to the anti-intellectualism and sabotage of critical institutions on the right, but they obviously don't have a monopoly on stupid and harmful ways to undermine public trust in academia.

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Sanho Tree @sanho.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

“The Trump-installed board that runs the Kennedy Center told a federal judge the building will have to be torn down unless President Donald Trump's name goes on it.“ Even Hitler would have blushed at such an insane demand, but it’s totally normal behavior for Needy Amin.

rawstory.com

Trump board threatens to destroy 'unsafe' Kennedy Center in apocalyptic court filing

The Trump-installed board that runs the Kennedy Center told a federal judge the building will have to be torn down unless President Donald Trump's name goes on it.Justice Department lawyers made the a...

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

The entire notion of retaliation is that they have a pretext. And in this case, it's a thin one; if this wasn't about Arday and the reaction, why are they citing the disruptions that arose recently and new damage to psychosocial wellbeing as part of the reason, and why are they doing it now?

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

I agree that they are not saying it's due to the incident, but: 1) it's hard to believe that it's unrelated; they said it's due to controversy, 2) the fact they would fire an academic for doing something outside their job description is fundamentally antithetical to the notion of freedom of inquiry!

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

Fall of the Berlin Wall; it was right before my 6th birthday, and I remember my mom hearing about it on NPR and being shocked.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

I don't understand this debate; Cofnas is a racist, and also, he's being punished for reporting what everyone agrees was clear academic misconduct. The fact that he's a gross person doesn't change the fact that retaliation for reporting misconduct is unacceptable and a horrible precedent, right?

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

I think there are some interesting question at the intersection of LLM personas and agent swarms, and I haven't seen anyone explain this clearly; here is my attempt. davidmanheim.substack.com/p/concerns-a...

davidmanheim.substack.com

Concerns About Personas, Multi-Agent Alignment, and Role Theory

There’s recently been significant discussion of LLM personas and how those fit into alignment.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 26/08/2026

Public opposition to data centers somewhat matches the vibes of the people worried about AI safety, but actually stopping their construction isn't meaningfully helpful for AI safety, it's at best irrelevant.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 20/07/2026

I was really happy to appear on the @futureoflife.org podcast this week to talk about @evals-consensus.ai and the challenges of evaluations of AI systems, along with discussions of Goodhart's law, AIxBiosecurity, AI persuasion, forecasting, and human oversight of AI.

youtu.be

Why AI Evaluations Are Broken and How to Fix Them (with David Manheim)

YouTube video by Future of Life Institute

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 20/07/2026

The trick is to block people posting slop on social media.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 20/07/2026

Over on the bird site, Anthropic employees are using their slop machine that 'can't think' to solve longstanding mathematical open questions which have eluded humans for close to a century.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 19/07/2026

I keep seeing claims AI companies will get rich, or won't make any money, or that open source models will be cheaper and undercut prices, and similar claims that ignore the simple fact that the economic pricing power is all about compute and token generation costs. davidmanheim.com/AI-Economics/

davidmanheim.com

The Future Economics of LLMs — Interactive Companion

An interactive companion to The Future Economics of LLMs.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 07/06/2026

Sorry, I'm not on Bluesky much and didn't intend to dodge this, but I also think you're obviously side-tracking the conversation by perversely misinterpreting what was said, so I'm ignoring you.

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PJ Harry 🎷 @pjharry.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

"Technologies that have first order impacts on coordination and production, or that empower groups in other ways, tend to differentially benefit the powerful in ways that are harmful to others, either directly or indirectly"

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 20/05/2026

New post: Huge technological revolutions aren't usually positive for those living through them - and this bodes poorly for AI even if it is a normal technology. davidmanheim.substack.com/p/if-ai-is-n...

davidmanheim.substack.com

If AI is normal technology, history is not reassuring.

Technological revolutions turn out well eventually, but they go badly first.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 18/05/2026

That is great! Thanks for pointing it out, and thanks @ketanjoshi.co!

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 18/05/2026

I don't think this relates to the discussion. Maybe look at why the discussion was occurring, the analogy, and maybe tell me how this sub-discussion is relevant to the analogy, if it is?

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 18/05/2026

Working on a post on this. And no, not a generation, but I'd argue loosely that the internet-enabled workers work longer hours and have no real time off, even if broader gains are occurring. (Similar to how factory workers and those injured by pollution were hurt, but broader society gained.)

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 17/05/2026

Alternatively, of course, there are the even larger changes possible. That is, if AI isn't a normal technology, and strong AGI or ASI is developed, we should be looking at a different class of changes - but that's hardly less concerning!

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 17/05/2026

Yes, I agree the base-rate prediction implies no permanent underclass, and implies long term benefits - but looking at the details, the immediate impact of each was bad for the majority of people for at least a generation. Assuming AI adoption will buck this trend requires more justification.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 17/05/2026

What are some relevant base rates? I'd start with revolutionary technologies; agriculture, industrial revolution, computers, the internet. Each seems to promise paradise, but each led to short term consolidation of power and harm to most people (esp. the non-elite) in civilizations adopting them.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 17/05/2026

As a forecaster, strongly disagree with @kulveit.bsky.social on this. 🧵 "Massive change" is pushing narratives over base rates and trends; in the past 20 years, inequality increased in developed countries. Predictions defying trends based on "this changes everything" are a common error.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 17/05/2026

GPT-5.5 seems to do more 'hacking per dollar' ...Mythos does more 'hacking per token'" - @peterwildeford.bsky.social Thinking about risks from bad actor's access to scaled models, the costs involved here are still absolutely tiny compared to other attack modes.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 15/05/2026

I mean, there is a very significantly elevated risk of partner violence during pregnancy, so if you were very very surprised, you probably under-updated about the risk.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 14/05/2026

I did not realize that, and after checking, will update my views about the relative risks - but the breakdown still has non-medical issues a much larger segment than most would expect.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 13/05/2026

On the other hand, the idea that this can be solved with a more transparent process involving the regulators and the public is just a way of saying they want the data centers blocked. (Though if they failed to plan for the impacts of the power needs, it would serve the data center builders right...)

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 13/05/2026

I think this is a good thing for @andymasley.bsky.social tow write about as well; regardless of the disinformation that exists, there are also critical ways that those impacted by datacenters are being disempowered, and harmed.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 13/05/2026

Well, the people who say things like this certainly are tools...

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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 12/05/2026

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that Bluesky has been a net negative for US politics. They corralled everyone on the left into a little glass fishbowl where they shout at one another & everyone else ignores them. Meanwhile, all the pols & institutions stayed on X & are being dragged farther right.

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David Manheim @davidmanheim.alter.org.il · 13/05/2026

Yeah, I'd guess @esr.bsky.social could have thoughts on this. (But he may not see this, since he's mainly on the social media platform formerly known as the bird site.)

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