David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/08/2026A third of college graduate workers are in jobs that don’t require much preparation. Some consider these graduates to be underemployed, but they still out-earn their coworkers by an average of 40%. 000
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 25/06/2026For basic demographics at the tract level, decennial Census files would be preferable since it’s a full count. ACS will be a sample-based estimate. Also if you use 2019 ACS you’ll have 2010 tracts instead of 2020 tracts. 010
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026This drop in college attendance will cause future college attainment rates to fall far more than the small amount of brain drain. Read more here: blog.waldrn.com/p/indianas-e...blog.waldrn.comIndiana’s economy faces a bigger problem than brain drainA decline in college attendance threatens to swamp attempts to retain college graduates 000
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026There is a much bigger problem than brain drain. College attendance of people born in Indiana has been falling since 2011. A Hoosier-born 20-year-old today is now much less likely to be enrolled in college than the national rate. 100
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026Across states, native college attainment explains 80% of the variation in resident attainment. Brain drain explains just 14%. Indiana’s has low college attainment because too few Hoosiers attend and graduate from college. 100
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026Indiana’s brain drain has hovered around 2 percentage points since 1940. In that time, college attainment of young adults increase from 6% to 36%. Brain drain doesn’t drive the college attainment rate. What matters is how many Hoosier children go on to earn a college degree. 200
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026Not only is brain drain small, but most of it occurs among business and social sciences graduates. Indiana actually sees a net gain in engineering graduates. 220
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026Indiana has the lowest college attainment of young adults of any Midwest state. Commentators often blame brain drain. But every Midwest state except Illinois loses college grads on net, and Indiana’s loss is small — 2.2 percentage points. 101
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 29/04/2026Economists and the general public have two different views on what makes inflation bad. 28% of the public would trade higher inflation for higher *real* growth (88% of economists would). 86% of the public worries that their incomes won’t keep up. Just 20% of economists agree. 000
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/03/2026The most likely cause behind the decline in fentanyl deaths: China cracked down on precursor chemical exports after sustained diplomatic pressure from the Biden administration. I wrote about what the data shows. blog.waldrn.com/p/fentanyl-d...blog.waldrn.comFentanyl deaths keep fallingThe biggest public health win you haven't heard enough about 021
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/03/2026Monthly U.S. fentanyl overdose deaths have fallen more than 60% from their peak in mid-2023—from nearly 7,000/month to around 2,600. That's ~4,000 fewer Americans dying every month. 100
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 19/02/2026Since the yield curve inverted in 2022, the U.S. economy has gone a record 45 months without entering a recession. 010
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 09/12/2025I usually interpret short term changes in government employment with a lot of caution because public education employment and the seasonal adjustments for it can swamp everything else out 010
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 13/10/2025One under-reported story about the economy over the past 15 years is that concerns about increasing healthcare expenditures turned out to be mostly unfounded. The CBO projected that healthcare would make up an increasing share of the economy, but spending mostly remained flat. 020
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 12/10/2025Some of the reasons for lower participation among young people are more concerning than others. Increase in schooling is probably good. Later family formation seems to contribute to *higher* participation. But disability and other reasons are cited more than in the past. 000
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 12/10/2025Recent college grads retain a large advantage in overall employment rate. Falling labor force participation rates among young people without a college degree is probably a more concerning trend. Lower labor force participation can lower unemployment rates, but that might be bad. 110
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 12/10/2025This is the data that has everyone talking. While there’s clearly a narrowing of the unemployment rate gap between recent college grads and other young people, it all occurred pre-COVID, before ChatGPT was released. 100
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 12/10/2025I recently wrote a little bit about the “struggling college graduates” narrative. Two main points: 1. The timing of the trend suggests it is not related to AI 2. Recent college graduates are still faring better than young people without college degrees www.incontext.indiana.edu/2025/sept-oc...incontext.indiana.eduWhat's behind the decreasing college graduate unemployment advantage?Labor force participation among young non-college people has declined over the past two decades. Does that explain the shrinking unemployment advantage for college graduates? 130
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/10/2025At a time when skepticism about college is popular, and many suggest trades as an alternative, this should lead some to reassess whether that advice is helpful or harmful to young people looking for guidance. Full post here: blog.waldrn.com/p/the-truth-...blog.waldrn.comThe truth about middle-skills jobsWhat decades of Census data can tell us about jobs, college and economic opportunity 0102
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/10/2025Healthcare-related middle skills jobs have performed better. Cops and firefighters also continue to get paid well. Jobs that require a college degree still tend to pay above the median wage and many, especially healthcare-related, have increased their standing relative to the median. 152
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/10/2025We hear a lot about the promise of middle-skills jobs, with a heavy emphasis on blue collar trades. But in the past four decades, those are the jobs where wages have fallen below the median wage. 23615
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 04/08/2025Recent jobs data suggests this streak might be coming to an end. My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidwal...open.substack.comIs the yield curve still useful for predicting recessions?In 2022, the yield curve suggested an economic downturn was around the corner, but the U.S. economy has continued to grow anyway 021
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 04/08/2025The yield curve inverted in April 2022, typically signaling recession within 6-24 months. But 38 months later, the U.S. economy still hasn’t entered recession—the longest streak since 1978. 121
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 21/05/2025So we’re cutting a survey that’s getting its first update since 2002 and has already completed data collection in February? 100
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 20/05/2025This particular chart is inspired by Figure 1 in "Tertiarization Like China" by Chen et. al. www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...annualreviews.orgTertiarization Like China | Annual ReviewsThis article documents a rapid shift toward services (tertiarization) of the Chinese economy since 2005, as evidenced by the significant increase in both employment and value-added shares of the servi... 000
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 20/05/2025Read more about this phenomenon as it relates to President Trump's beliefs about trade here: blog.waldrn.com/p/what-happe...blog.waldrn.comWhat happened to American manufacturing is not unusualDe-industrialization has followed a similar course in every developed country 100
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 20/05/2025This chart shows the common evolution of economic development in OECD countries and China: Beginning as agricultural economies, industrializing, then ultimately becoming service-based (tertiarization). blog.waldrn.com/p/what-happe... 140
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 15/05/2025From here: www.nber.org/system/files...nber.org 000
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 15/05/2025Median number of authors on an top econ journal publication: 1963-1983: One 1993-2011: Two 2024: Three 111
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/05/2025Base on 2019 data, where both modes were tested, the mode change could account for around 1.5 points of the 15.2 point drop in complete agreement on the equal pay question, and 5.6 points of the 17.8 point drop on the equal opportunity question. 010
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/05/2025Two quick updates: First, the analysis script is available here: github.com/dawaldron/bo... Second, I've realized that there was a mode change that I didn't note in the initial post. The Monitoring the Future survey switched from paper forms to electronics tablets between 2018 and 2020.github.comGitHub - dawaldron/boys-gender-equalityContribute to dawaldron/boys-gender-equality development by creating an account on GitHub. 120
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025Here’s my latest post on the concerning trend of American boys becoming less supportive of gender equality. blog.waldrn.com/p/american-b...blog.waldrn.comAmerican boys have become less supportive of gender equalityA survey of 8th and 10th graders shows a sharp drop in the percent of boys who believe that women should have the same opportunities as men 023
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025One clue that is evident in the survey is that trend away from feminist views appears to be strongest among boys who say that religion is important in their lives. 000
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025The trend also appears to be independent of fathers being present, education of mothers and communication with parents. 100
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025Support for gender equality dropped regardless of whether boys regularly hung out with friends or went on dates. 100
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025The data defies most simple explanations. The drop appears to be greater among boys who spent the least amount of time using social networks, watching videos or playing video games. 100
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025A concerning trend has emerged among American boys. The share of 8th and 10th graders who support gender equality has dropped from 2018 to 2023. 313
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 07/04/2025⚾️New side project for baseball fans: Minimalist newspaper-style MLB box scores, available daily at waldrn.com/boxscores/. Code available at github.com/dawaldron/ba... for those interested.waldrn.comBaseball Box Scores - April 06, 2025 010
Reposted by David WaldronJoey Politano🏳️🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 07/02/2025Today's annual benchmark revisions to jobs data turned tech job growth from bad to worse—instead of only slow growth from late 2023 through 2024, the industry has actually been losing jobs at a rate not seen since the Great Recession 1325255
Reposted by David WaldronSam @samd.bsky.social · 03/02/2025“Actually it’s good that a bunch of teenagers are unilaterally firing thousands of government employees because they have ChatGPT” i can’t get over how unfathomably stupid the average SF venture capitalist is 23765031169
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 29/01/2025Here's a map of where high-tech manufacturing is located in the U.S.: 000
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 29/01/2025“High-tech” sounds like the future, but American high-tech manufacturing has been declining for decades.blog.waldrn.comThe decline of high-tech manufacturing in the United StatesAmerica's major high-tech manufacturing industries have not escaped the general decline in manufacturing employment. 010
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 24/01/2025Always good to be careful, but in this case the swings are so large and it seems consistent all across the country. And it’s precinct-level? I think there’s something there 010
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 24/01/2025Lot of folks bought into “popularism” which just takes the ideological landscape as fixed. Lost any concept of how to shape narratives and lead people. Reciting bland, a/b tested scripts that resonate with no one and wilting like a flower whenever someone brings up an “unpopular” topic 050
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 22/01/2025Saw another one where someone was like “rich people’s wealth isn’t liquid! Do you really think God would require that they liquidate their assets to give to charity?” 010
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 22/01/2025The goal of posts like this is not to be correct, but to position yourself to look like the savviest poster because you were the most pessimistic of the posters before the next Bad Thing happened 180
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 22/01/2025Indiana lawmakers are considering cutting the benefits duration for UI. Some potential effects include a less efficient labor market, lower re-employment wages, higher risk of poverty for unemployed workers.open.substack.comWhat would happen if Indiana cut unemployment benefits?Shortening the potential benefits period for unemployment insurance could make workers worse off and our labor market less efficient. 010
David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 22/01/20251935 report on unemployment compensation in Indiana uses log scales for several charts #dataviz📊 000