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David Waldron

@davidawaldron.bsky.social
423 followers 625 following 89 posts

Economist in Indianapolis. Dataviz, labor markets, education, workforce development. waldrn.com

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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
A third of college graduate workers are in jobs that don’t require much preparation. Some consider these graduates to be underemployed, but they still out-earn their coworkers by an average of 40%.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
For basic demographics at the tract level, decennial Census files would be preferable since it’s a full count. ACS will be a sample-based estimate. Also if you use 2019 ACS you’ll have 2010 tracts instead of 2020 tracts.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
This drop in college attendance will cause future college attainment rates to fall far more than the small amount of brain drain. Read more here: blog.waldrn.com/p/indianas-e...
blog.waldrn.com
Indiana’s economy faces a bigger problem than brain drain
A decline in college attendance threatens to swamp attempts to retain college graduates
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
There is a much bigger problem than brain drain. College attendance of people born in Indiana has been falling since 2011. A Hoosier-born 20-year-old today is now much less likely to be enrolled in college than the national rate.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Across states, native college attainment explains 80% of the variation in resident attainment. Brain drain explains just 14%. Indiana’s has low college attainment because too few Hoosiers attend and graduate from college.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Indiana’s brain drain has hovered around 2 percentage points since 1940. In that time, college attainment of young adults increase from 6% to 36%. Brain drain doesn’t drive the college attainment rate. What matters is how many Hoosier children go on to earn a college degree.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Not only is brain drain small, but most of it occurs among business and social sciences graduates. Indiana actually sees a net gain in engineering graduates.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Indiana has the lowest college attainment of young adults of any Midwest state. Commentators often blame brain drain. But every Midwest state except Illinois loses college grads on net, and Indiana’s loss is small — 2.2 percentage points.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Economists and the general public have two different views on what makes inflation bad. 28% of the public would trade higher inflation for higher *real* growth (88% of economists would). 86% of the public worries that their incomes won’t keep up. Just 20% of economists agree.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Sharp critique and bad vibes?
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The most likely cause behind the decline in fentanyl deaths: China cracked down on precursor chemical exports after sustained diplomatic pressure from the Biden administration. I wrote about what the data shows. blog.waldrn.com/p/fentanyl-d...
blog.waldrn.com
Fentanyl deaths keep falling
The biggest public health win you haven't heard enough about
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Monthly U.S. fentanyl overdose deaths have fallen more than 60% from their peak in mid-2023—from nearly 7,000/month to around 2,600. That's ~4,000 fewer Americans dying every month.
Line chart showing monthly U.S. fentanyl overdose deaths from 2007 to September 2025. Deaths were near zero before 2013, rose steadily to about 2,500 by 2017, surged to over 6,000 by mid-2020, peaked at 6,785 in May 2023, then dropped sharply to around 2,640 by September 2025. The most recent months are shown as provisional with a dashed line.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Since the yield curve inverted in 2022, the U.S. economy has gone a record 45 months without entering a recession.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
I usually interpret short term changes in government employment with a lot of caution because public education employment and the seasonal adjustments for it can swamp everything else out
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
One under-reported story about the economy over the past 15 years is that concerns about increasing healthcare expenditures turned out to be mostly unfounded. The CBO projected that healthcare would make up an increasing share of the economy, but spending mostly remained flat.
Chart showing the trend in national healthcare expenditures from 1960 to 2033. Actual spending rises from 5% of GDP in 1960 to 17.2 in 2009. Then is increases slightly to 17.6 in 2023. A 2009 projection by the CBO showed spending increasing to 23.6 in 2023 and 29.7 2033. A 2025 projection by CMS shows spending increasing to 20.3 by 2033.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Some of the reasons for lower participation among young people are more concerning than others. Increase in schooling is probably good. Later family formation seems to contribute to *higher* participation. But disability and other reasons are cited more than in the past.
Chart showing the changes in reasons cited for not working for young adults
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Recent college grads retain a large advantage in overall employment rate. Falling labor force participation rates among young people without a college degree is probably a more concerning trend. Lower labor force participation can lower unemployment rates, but that might be bad.
Chart showing the consistent 10-point advantage in employment rates for upping college graduatesChart showing Labor Force participation rates for young college and non-college adults.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
This is the data that has everyone talking. While there’s clearly a narrowing of the unemployment rate gap between recent college grads and other young people, it all occurred pre-COVID, before ChatGPT was released.
Chart showing the unemployment rate for young adults with and without college degreesChart showing the shrinking gap between the unemployment rate for recent college graduates and young people without college degrees
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
I recently wrote a little bit about the “struggling college graduates” narrative. Two main points: 1. The timing of the trend suggests it is not related to AI 2. Recent college graduates are still faring better than young people without college degrees www.incontext.indiana.edu/2025/sept-oc...
incontext.indiana.edu
What's behind the decreasing college graduate unemployment advantage?
Labor force participation among young non-college people has declined over the past two decades. Does that explain the shrinking unemployment advantage for college graduates?
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
At a time when skepticism about college is popular, and many suggest trades as an alternative, this should lead some to reassess whether that advice is helpful or harmful to young people looking for guidance. Full post here: blog.waldrn.com/p/the-truth-...
blog.waldrn.com
The truth about middle-skills jobs
What decades of Census data can tell us about jobs, college and economic opportunity
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Healthcare-related middle skills jobs have performed better. Cops and firefighters also continue to get paid well. Jobs that require a college degree still tend to pay above the median wage and many, especially healthcare-related, have increased their standing relative to the median.
Chart comparing median wages by occupation relative to overall median wage, showing 1980 to 2023 on a log scale. Organized by education level: Middle Skills - Other category includes hairdressers (declined below median), healthcare workers like dental hygienists and respiratory therapists (maintained above-median wages), and public safety roles like firefighters and police officers (maintained above-median positions). Bachelor's degree jobs show accountants, engineers, and software developers maintaining strong wage premiums, with airplane pilots earning around 2.5x median. Graduate degree occupations all remain well above median, with physicians earning over 3x median wage in both periods, followed by dentists and lawyers at 2-2.5x median. Chart demonstrates most jobs requiring post-secondary education have maintained or improved their wage advantage over four decades.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
We hear a lot about the promise of middle-skills jobs, with a heavy emphasis on blue collar trades. But in the past four decades, those are the jobs where wages have fallen below the median wage.
Chart showing median wages by occupation relative to overall median wage, comparing 1980 to 2023 on a log scale. Jobs are grouped by education level. Key findings: Many blue-collar jobs requiring only high school diplomas (forklift operators, taxi drivers, janitors) earned above median in 1980 but fell below median by 2023. Middle-skill construction and manufacturing jobs mostly remain near or above median. Healthcare occupations have increased relative to median wage over time. Jobs requiring bachelor's or graduate degrees consistently pay above median, with highest earners including physicians, lawyers, and software developers. Chart illustrates declining relative wages for traditionally blue-collar work over four decades.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Recent jobs data suggests this streak might be coming to an end. My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidwal...
open.substack.com
Is the yield curve still useful for predicting recessions?
In 2022, the yield curve suggested an economic downturn was around the corner, but the U.S. economy has continued to grow anyway
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
The yield curve inverted in April 2022, typically signaling recession within 6-24 months. But 38 months later, the U.S. economy still hasn’t entered recession—the longest streak since 1978.
Chart titled “Defying gravity (so far)” showing unemployment rate and non-farm payroll employment changes following yield curve inversions since 1978. Gray dashed lines show past recessions with sharp rises in unemployment and job losses. Red dotted line shows current period since 2022 inversion with unemployment staying flat around 4% and employment continuing to grow modestly, unlike historical patterns.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
@johnpfaff.bsky.social
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
So we’re cutting a survey that’s getting its first update since 2002 and has already completed data collection in February?
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
This particular chart is inspired by Figure 1 in "Tertiarization Like China" by Chen et. al. www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
annualreviews.org
Tertiarization Like China | Annual Reviews
This article documents a rapid shift toward services (tertiarization) of the Chinese economy since 2005, as evidenced by the significant increase in both employment and value-added shares of the servi...
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
Read more about this phenomenon as it relates to President Trump's beliefs about trade here: blog.waldrn.com/p/what-happe...
blog.waldrn.com
What happened to American manufacturing is not unusual
De-industrialization has followed a similar course in every developed country
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
This chart shows the common evolution of economic development in OECD countries and China: Beginning as agricultural economies, industrializing, then ultimately becoming service-based (tertiarization). blog.waldrn.com/p/what-happe...
This chart titled "All developed economies become service-based" shows sector employment share by total output per worker (2017 USD) across agriculture, manufacturing, and services in 10 developed countries and China.
The chart contains three panels:

Left panel (Agriculture): Shows declining employment share (from 80% to near 0%) as output per worker increases. China starts highest, followed by South Korea, with USA reaching lowest agricultural employment.

Middle panel (Manufacturing): Shows an inverted U-shape pattern, with manufacturing employment first rising then falling as productivity increases. All three highlighted countries peak around 20-35% before declining.

Right panel (Services): Shows increasing employment share (from 10% to 80%) as productivity rises. USA leads with highest service employment share (80%), followed by South Korea, with China showing rapid growth but still trailing.

The data visualizes economic tertiarization - the shift from agriculture to manufacturing to services as economies develop and worker productivity increases. The x-axis (logarithmic scale) shows output per worker from 2.5k to 80k USD.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
From here: www.nber.org/system/files...
nber.org
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Median number of authors on an top econ journal publication: 1963-1983: One 1993-2011: Two 2024: Three
This bar chart shows the distribution of number of authors in leading U.S. general economics journals from 1963 to 2024. The y-axis represents the percent of articles (0-90%), and the x-axis shows publication years (1963, 1973, 1983, 1993, 2003, 2011, 2024). Different colored bars represent the number of authors: black (1 author), blue (2 authors), red (3 authors), green (4 authors), and yellow (5-7 authors). The trend shows a clear decline in single-authored papers (from over 80% in 1963 to about 12% in 2024) and a rise in multi-authored papers, particularly 2-author papers (increasing from about 17% to approximately 27%) and 3-author papers (growing to about 32% by 2024). By 2024, articles with 4 authors (17%) and 5-7 authors (11%) became significant portions of publications, categories that barely existed in earlier decades.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Base on 2019 data, where both modes were tested, the mode change could account for around 1.5 points of the 15.2 point drop in complete agreement on the equal pay question, and 5.6 points of the 17.8 point drop on the equal opportunity question.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Two quick updates: First, the analysis script is available here: github.com/dawaldron/bo... Second, I've realized that there was a mode change that I didn't note in the initial post. The Monitoring the Future survey switched from paper forms to electronics tablets between 2018 and 2020.
github.com
GitHub - dawaldron/boys-gender-equality
Contribute to dawaldron/boys-gender-equality development by creating an account on GitHub.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
Here’s my latest post on the concerning trend of American boys becoming less supportive of gender equality. blog.waldrn.com/p/american-b...
blog.waldrn.com
American boys have become less supportive of gender equality
A survey of 8th and 10th graders shows a sharp drop in the percent of boys who believe that women should have the same opportunities as men
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
One clue that is evident in the survey is that trend away from feminist views appears to be strongest among boys who say that religion is important in their lives.
This chart examines gender equality attitudes among 8th and 10th grade boys from 1991-2023, comparing those who consider religion important versus those who don't.

Left graph: For job opportunity equality, religious and non-religious boys followed similar patterns until around 2018, when a dramatic divergence occurred. By 2023, boys who consider religion important dropped to just 38%, while non-religious boys maintained higher support at 52%.

Right graph: For equal pay, the pattern repeats, with religious boys falling to 50% by 2023 compared to 64% for non-religious boys.

The data reveals religion as the strongest correlating factor with declining feminist attitudes, with religious boys showing much steeper drops in support for gender equality since 2018. This suggests a potential cultural shift within religious communities affecting young males' views. Source: Monitoring the Future.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
The trend also appears to be independent of fathers being present, education of mothers and communication with parents.
This chart examines gender equality support among 8th and 10th grade boys from 1991-2023, comparing those with and without fathers in the home.

Left graph: For job opportunity equality, both groups show nearly identical trend lines throughout the period, including the recent decline after 2018, reaching 45% by 2023 regardless of father presence.

Right graph: For equal pay, the pattern repeats with both groups tracking closely together, ending at similar levels in 2023 (57% for boys with fathers, 59% for those without).

The data decisively refutes the hypothesis that absent fathers drive decreasing support for gender equality, as both groups show virtually identical attitudes and trends over three decades. Source: Monitoring the Future.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​This chart examines gender equality attitudes among 8th and 10th grade boys from 1991-2023, comparing those with college-educated versus non-college-educated mothers.

Left graph: For job opportunity equality, boys with college-educated mothers historically showed higher support, but experienced a steeper decline after 2018, narrowing the gap. By 2023, college-educated mothers' sons fell to 45%, while non-college-educated mothers' sons ended at 47%.

Right graph: For equal pay, both groups converged at identical levels by 2023 (57%), erasing the previous advantage seen among boys with college-educated mothers.

The data reveals a surprising trend: the education gap in feminist attitudes is closing, but through a larger decline among boys from more educated households. Source: Monitoring the Future.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​This chart examines gender equality attitudes among 8th and 10th grade boys from 1991-2023, comparing those who can talk openly with parents versus those who cannot.

Left graph: For job opportunity equality, boys who can talk openly with parents maintained consistently higher support levels, but both groups experienced similar declines after 2018. By 2023, boys with open communication reached 50%, while those without fell to 42%.

Right graph: For equal pay, the pattern continues with open-communication boys at 60% by 2023, compared to 55% for those who can't discuss everything with parents.

While parental communication correlates with higher baseline support for gender equality, the significant decline since 2018 affected both groups similarly, suggesting parenting style isn't a key factor in the recent trend. Source: Monitoring the Future.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
Support for gender equality dropped regardless of whether boys regularly hung out with friends or went on dates.
This chart compares gender equality attitudes of 8th and 10th grade boys based on social habits from 1991-2023.

Left graph: For job opportunity equality, support dropped for both groups after 2018, with socially active boys ("Hangs out with friends") declining more steeply to 40% by 2023, compared to 48% for socially isolated boys ("Doesn't hang out").

Right graph: For equal pay, support also fell after 2018, with socially active boys dropping to 55% while isolated boys ended at 59%.

Contrary to expectations, the data shows that declining feminist attitudes were actually more pronounced among socially active boys, challenging assumptions that social isolation drives anti-feminist beliefs. Source: Monitoring the Future.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​This chart tracks gender equality support among 8th and 10th grade boys from 1991-2023, comparing those who date versus those who don't.

Left graph: For job opportunity equality, support consistently remained higher among non-dating boys, but declined for both groups after 2018. By 2023, boys who "Never goes on dates" fell to 49%, while those who "Goes on dates" dropped more steeply to 39%.

Right graph: For equal pay, the pattern repeats with non-dating boys showing higher support (60% by 2023) compared to dating boys (52%).

The data challenges assumptions that romantic frustration drives anti-feminist attitudes, as boys who date actually show consistently lower support for gender equality. Both groups experienced similar declines since 2018. Source: Monitoring the Future.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
The data defies most simple explanations. The drop appears to be greater among boys who spent the least amount of time using social networks, watching videos or playing video games.
This chart displays two side-by-side line graphs showing the percentage of American 8th and 10th grade boys who completely agree with gender equality statements from 1991 to 2023, broken down by social media usage after 2018.

The left graph tracks responses to "A woman should have the same job opportunities as a man." Support declined from about 60% in 2018 to 45% in 2020, with boys who spend less than 1 hour daily on social media (green line) and those who spend 5 or more hours (orange line) both ending at approximately 45%.

The right graph shows responses to "Men and women should be paid the same money if they do the same work." Support fell from around 70% in 2018, with boys spending less than 1 hour daily on social media dropping to 59% by 2023, while heavy users (5+ hours) declined to 54%.

Vertical dashed lines mark 2018-2023, when data was segmented by social media usage. The chart illustrates that decreasing support for gender equality occurred across both low and high social media users, contradicting assumptions that heavy social media use drives anti-feminist attitudes. Data source: Monitoring the Future.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​This chart shows two side-by-side graphs tracking American 8th and 10th grade boys who completely agree with gender equality statements, comparing those who watch videos less than 2 hours daily (green) versus 4+ hours (orange).

Left graph: For job opportunities equality, support dropped sharply after 2018, with low video users falling more dramatically to 37% (compared to 47% for heavy users).

Right graph: For equal pay, support also declined after 2018, with low video users dropping to 51% (compared to 58% for heavy users).

Data reveals the counterintuitive finding that decreased support for gender equality was more pronounced among boys with less video consumption. Source: Monitoring the Future.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​This chart compares support for gender equality among 8th and 10th grade boys based on gaming habits. Two side-by-side graphs track percentages of those who completely agree with equality statements from 1991-2023.

Left graph: For job opportunity equality, support for non-gamers (less than 1 hour daily) dropped more dramatically to 42% after 2018, compared to heavy gamers (5+ hours) who fell to 48%.

Right graph: For equal pay, support also declined after 2018, with non-gamers falling to 53% while heavy gamers ended at 60%.

The data contradicts assumptions that video games promote sexist attitudes, as boys who game least showed steeper declines in feminist views. Source: Monitoring the Future.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
A concerning trend has emerged among American boys. The share of 8th and 10th graders who support gender equality has dropped from 2018 to 2023.
This chart shows two side-by-side line graphs tracking the percentage of American 8th and 10th grade boys who support gender equality from 1990 to 2023. 

The left graph shows responses to "A woman should have the same job opportunities as a man." The percentage who "Agree at all" dropped from 84% in 2018 to 72% in 2023, while those who "Agree completely" fell more sharply from 63% to 45%.

The right graph shows responses to "Men and women should be paid the same money if they do the same work." The percentage who "Agree at all" declined from 87% in 2018 to 79% in 2023, while those who "Agree completely" dropped from 72% to 57%.

Both graphs show relatively stable attitudes from 1990 until 2018, followed by notable declines through 2023. The data comes from the Monitoring the Future study.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
⚾️New side project for baseball fans: Minimalist newspaper-style MLB box scores, available daily at waldrn.com/boxscores/. Code available at github.com/dawaldron/ba... for those interested.
waldrn.com
Baseball Box Scores - April 06, 2025
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Reposted by David Waldron
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Today's annual benchmark revisions to jobs data turned tech job growth from bad to worse—instead of only slow growth from late 2023 through 2024, the industry has actually been losing jobs at a rate not seen since the Great Recession
a graph of tech job growth over time, showing a large decline in employment starting in late 2023 to early 2025
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Reposted by David Waldron
Sam @samd.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
“Actually it’s good that a bunch of teenagers are unilaterally firing thousands of government employees because they have ChatGPT” i can’t get over how unfathomably stupid the average SF venture capitalist is
Garry Tan
@garrytan.9h
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Whoever made the original graphic doesn't understand the scale and speed of smart high IQ people who can program, and what they can do in a moment when intelligence now on infinite tap using LLMs
Daniel
@growing_daniel • 10h
Luke being charge of our money is an incredible shift. I didn't know this was an option, amazing development
Who are these little boys?
And why are they in charge of our money?
Akash Bobba
Luke Farritor Ethan Shaotran Edward Coristine
(Not pictured: Gauthier Cole Killian & Gavin Kliger)
The US Treasury pays for:
Social security
Medicare
Grants
Federal salaries
And is usually run by grown-ups.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
Here's a map of where high-tech manufacturing is located in the U.S.:
Map of the U.S. showing cities with high-tech manufacturing employment, with cones representing the amount of workers based on the height of the cone, and the color of the cone representing the dominant industry
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
“High-tech” sounds like the future, but American high-tech manufacturing has been declining for decades.
blog.waldrn.com
The decline of high-tech manufacturing in the United States
America's major high-tech manufacturing industries have not escaped the general decline in manufacturing employment.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Always good to be careful, but in this case the swings are so large and it seems consistent all across the country. And it’s precinct-level? I think there’s something there
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Lot of folks bought into “popularism” which just takes the ideological landscape as fixed. Lost any concept of how to shape narratives and lead people. Reciting bland, a/b tested scripts that resonate with no one and wilting like a flower whenever someone brings up an “unpopular” topic
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Saw another one where someone was like “rich people’s wealth isn’t liquid! Do you really think God would require that they liquidate their assets to give to charity?”
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
The goal of posts like this is not to be correct, but to position yourself to look like the savviest poster because you were the most pessimistic of the posters before the next Bad Thing happened
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Indiana lawmakers are considering cutting the benefits duration for UI. Some potential effects include a less efficient labor market, lower re-employment wages, higher risk of poverty for unemployed workers.
open.substack.com
What would happen if Indiana cut unemployment benefits?
Shortening the potential benefits period for unemployment insurance could make workers worse off and our labor market less efficient.
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David Waldron @davidawaldron.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
1935 report on unemployment compensation in Indiana uses log scales for several charts #dataviz📊
Chart showing number of residents receiving unemployment relief in Indiana from 1930 to 1934Chart showing obligations incurred against all public funds for unemployment relief in 1933 and 1934Chart showing unemployment cases in Indiana in five largest counties in 1933 and 1934Chart showing outdoor poor relief in Indiana from 1890 to 1931
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