Valerio Capraro on emotions, norms, strategy, and linguistic framing.

Driven by labor slack, the convex Beveridgean Phillips curve achieves target inflation whenever unemployment is at its efficient rate (FERU).

Evolution has hardwired us for an ASI world

Displaced workers relocate toward former coworkers, driven by relevant, job-specific information rather than social support.

AI companies use tokens to track usage and bill customers. Now economists are using them to track the spread of AI through the economy.

Higher ed is being strangled by absurd and costly rules. What message is that sending to students?

How Your Brain Decides What Matters: People with amygdala damage are shedding new light on why we trust or fear others

This highlights the pivotal role of subject choice as a key mechanism linking skills to labour market outcomes.

Sydnee Caldwell Ingrid Haegele Jörg Heining Working Paper 35149 http://www.nber.org/papers/w35149 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachus…

Economic markets are efficient ways of deciding fair prices, at least in ideal circumstances of perfect competition, information, and choice. But ther

Aging researchers and the removal of retirement policies yield decreased disruptive innovation in science

Often, researchers are interested not just in the global estimand _𝛽_ = 𝔼[ _𝑌_ | _𝑋_ ], but how this relationship varies by geography.

Why jargon-filled leadership language confuses teams, slows decisions, and corrodes credibility + take the Corporate BS Receptivity Test

How AI could destroy mathematics and barely touch it

Carl Benedikt Frey points out that the technology tends to shift the burden of work, rather than eliminating it.

AI hiring deters high-performing non-competitive women while overconfident men over-apply; gender transparency has no effect.

Extending working lives requires aligning macro-policy with flexible firm practices to support diverse financial and personal motivations.

For decades, economists gave short shrift to the idea of monopsony — a power employers can have to suppress wages. Now a wave of research suggests it'

The most capable models may produce conclusions that are less stable across reasonable analytical framings, raising new challenges for replicability …

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Combining user utility and hiring probabilities in job recommender systems yields substantial welfare gains over standard predictive algorithms.

Average grades continue to rise in the United States, raising the question of how grade inflation impacts students. We provide comprehensive evidence

LLMs tripled book releases, lowering average quality but driving a surge in the absolute number of high-quality titles and consumer surplus.

New work offsets automation not just by creating jobs, but by demanding scarce human expertise that commands significant wage premiums.

Men and women share firm profits equally; the gender pay gap instead stems from women's segregation into less profitable firms.

How ‘Tiny Shortcuts’ Are Poisoning Science: Seemingly harmless data tweaks are undermining the integrity of the entire field. We must define the problem to prevent it

ABSTRACT We have studied 21 435 unique randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR). Of these trials, 7224 (34%) have a continuous (numerical) outcome and 14 211 (66%) have a binary outcome. We find that trials with a binary outcome have larger sample sizes on average, but also larger standard errors and fewer statistically significant results. We conclude that researchers tend to increase the sample size to compensate for the low information content of binary outcomes, but not sufficiently. In many cases, the binary outcome is the result of dichotomization of a continuous outcome, which is sometimes referred to as “responder analysis”. In those cases, the loss of information is avoidable. Burdening more participants than necessary is wasteful, costly, and unethical. We provide a method to convert a sample size calculation for the comparison of two proportions into one for the comparison of the means of the underlying continuous outcomes. This demonstrates how much the sample size may be reduced if the outcome were not dichotomized. We also provide a method to calculate the loss of information after a dichotomization. We apply this method to all the trials from the CDSR with a binary outcome, and estimate that on average, only about 60% of the information is retained after dichotomization. We provide R code and a shiny app at: https://vanzwet.shinyapps.io/info_loss/ to do these calculations. We hope that quantifying the loss of information will discourage researchers from dichotomizing continuous outcomes. Instead, we recommend they “model continuously but interpret dichotomously”. For example, they might present “percentage achieving clinically meaningful improvement” derived from a continuous analysis rather than by dichotomizing raw data.

One of the promises of AI is that it can reduce workloads so employees can focus more on higher-value and more engaging tasks. But according to new research, AI tools don’t reduce work, they consistently intensify it: In the study, employees worked at a faster pace, took on a broader scope of tasks, and extended work into more hours of the day, often without being asked to do so. That may sound like a win, but it’s not quite so simple. These changes can be unsustainable, leading to workload creep, cognitive fatigue, burnout, and weakened decision-making. The productivity surge enjoyed at the beginning can give way to lower quality work, turnover, and other problems. To correct for this, companies need to adopt an “AI practice,” or a set of norms and standards around AI use that can include intentional pauses, sequencing work, and adding more human grounding.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2026-02

My "MixtapeTools" repo

I have a new working paper with Bart Wilson titled: “You Wouldn’t Steal a Car: Moral Intuition for Intellectual Property.”  The title of this post, “everyone take copies,” comes from a conversation between the human subjects in an experiment in our lab, on which the paper is based. The experiment was studying how and when […]