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Dalia Dassa Kaye

@dassakaye.bsky.social
3K followers 289 following 932 posts

Middle East/geopolitics/diplomacy analyst. Current: Senior Fellow, UCLA Burkle Center. Former: Director, RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. More info here: www.daliadassakaye.net.

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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Bad news. Without an agreement to end the Iran war, the entire region is at risk and the costly US military engagement continues.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Important word here is "claim." Who knows what he'll do, especially when the Iranians may not be working on his timeframe.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
These Nobel announcements and the recipient reactions are so much fun!
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The last line of this piece makes a key point and should raise more questions about this unusual move: "An Iran-backed plot to commit an attack in Britain would be a major escalation by Tehran against a Western country in apparent retaliation for the American-and Israeli-led war against Iran."
nytimes.com
U.S. Rushes to Withdraw Bombers From U.K. Air Base After New Threats
The withdrawal came with unusual speed, following what U.S. officials said were threats of an Iran-based plot against the installation.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Spotted in front of a lingerie shop in Juneau Alaska
Photo of a sign in Juneau Alaska
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Correct, and it's strange to take credit for stopping a wider war when the April exchange was the first direct open conflict between the Israel and Iran (ie, a wider war). It set the stage for the Oct. exchange and operationally at least, the June 2025 attack.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
You can read this as Trump trying to up the pressure on Iran to get a better deal. Or the conventional view that neither side wants to return to war may actually be wrong. Let’s remember that was the prevailing view before Trump started this mess.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Looking forward to joining this terrific group of distinguished fellows @perryworldhouse.bsky.social this year.
perryworldhouse.upenn.edu
Perry World House Announces 2026-27 Distinguished Visiting Fellows - Perry World House
Perry World House (PWH) – the University of Pennsylvania’s hub for global affairs – is pleased to announce its 2026-27 cohort of distinguished visiting fellows. Over the course of the year, these scho...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Remember all the takes about how Trump was the one who could press Netanyahu toward peace?
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Reposted by Dalia Dassa Kaye
Stanford University Press @stanfordpress.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Choice reviewed Enduring Hostility by @dassakaye.bsky.social "This excellent, engaging book fills a major gap in the literature on US policy toward Iran, focusing on the post-hostage crisis after the Islamic revolution of 1979.... Highly recommended."
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Wow.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Blinken is saying this quote is false. One day the historical record may tell us more. What we do know is that the wider track record of the Biden team (before and after Oct. 7) was a deferential approach to Netanyahu and avoidance of public ruptures with Israel.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
He also says there’s “relatively little active engagement” right now, on a day when Iran launched a major missile barrage on US forces in Jordan (and US hit 5 Iranian oil tankers).
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Yes, LA is feeling like Miami this week. Not ok.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Daily reminder that the US and Iran are still engaged in a costly war and "tit-for-tat" attacks can quickly escalate by intention or by accident. The result will not look good either way.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
"Blinken informed al-Thani that he planned to fly to Israel within three days. 'Let's wait,' he reassured him." 'I will speak to Netanyahu personally.'" But according to this account, senior Israeli officials acknowledge "the issue of the hostages was not seriously on the agenda at this stage."
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Report says al-Thani calls Blinken with urgent message: "Listen... There are hundreds of hostages in Gaza, and among them... dozens of civilians. They need to be released now. I offered the Israelis to mediate a quick deal for their release, but they are not interested."
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Attention on this important @haaretzcom.bsky.social story is focused on the warnings Netanyahu ignored before the Hamas Oct. 7 attack. But equally chilling is his government's neglect of the hostages after the attack despite proposals to free them from day 1
haaretz.com
Netanyahu got an explicit warning before Oct. 7. He didn't brief security chiefs
In September '23, UAE President bin Zayed called Netanyahu to deliver a harsh warning. Netanyahu did nothing. An extensive investigation, conducted for a new book, reveals the PM's failures surroundin...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
💯 One of the first questions the prof in my first IR class asked: why would Canada have an army?
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
There's no question this war has been a strategic disaster for the US and we'll be living with the consequences for some time. But it's unclear Iran is any better at reading US domestic politics than the US has been at understanding political dynamics within Iran. They can also miscalculate.
nytimes.com
A More Confident Iran Emerges After Six Months of War With the U.S.
New intelligence reports have assessed that Iran now has a far better understanding of its capabilities and the limits of U.S. power.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The goals of this war were always unclear. But from day 1 regime change was clearly in the mix. The question has always been, what if the regime doesn't fall? Then what? We've been living with the consequences of having no answer to that for over six months.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
If anyone's in the Triangle area tomorrow and interested in the latest on US-Iran, please join my chat with @bwj77.bsky.social tomorrow!
sanford.duke.edu
Enduring Hostility: The Making of America's Iran Policy | Sanford School of Public Policy
Enduring Hostility: The Making of America's Iran Policy
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
This.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
and already reports of Iranian strikes on US base in Jordan. Iran is not going to let Trump claim the war is over.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Send me your email and i'll share a PDF
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
thx for flagging. though i think you have to go further back than JCPOA w/d to understand context for how we got here but also why Trump's 2nd term has moved us into new territory. This FP I wrote summarizes this arc if helpful:
foreignpolicy.com
There’s a Reason No President Before Trump Authorized War With Iran
How this war ends is as uncertain as the reasons for starting it.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
As expected, China isn't going along with Trump's latest attempt to pressure Iran in a war that was built on false assumptions and strategic incoherence.
nytimes.com
China Pushes Back After Trump Tightens the Screws on Iran
The Trump administration risks a clash with Beijing as it tries to cut off Iran’s economic lifelines without upending a fragile U.S.-China truce.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Good summation from @ishaantharoor.bsky.social on the strategic failure of the Iran war six months on. The scorecard is pretty dismal: --more dangerous Iranian leaders/more suffering for its people --more instability across the region --more setbacks for US interests globally
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
none of the vintages have aged well...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Exactly. This shift to a post-American Middle East has long been coming but the Iran war should leave little doubt about the direction of travel.
tandfonline.com
America's Role in a Post-American Middle East
Published in The Washington Quarterly (Vol. 45, No. 1, 2022)
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
There was already debate about the still sizable US footprint in the Middle East well before the Iran war. But the war will accelerate pressures to rethink force presence. Unfortunately this rethink could have been done without putting American personnel in harms way.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Trump today: Hormuz is "open and operating" NYT today: "The average number of ships transiting the strait over the last week was about 12 vessels per day, down from more than 130 a day before the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February."
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
The US has not always been at war with Iran. The US and Iran have had an adversarial relationship for 47 years with destructive episodes, including military exchanges during the Tanker war in the 1980's. But the US and Iran were not 'at war' until Trump 2.0
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Reminder that the June MOU, which Trump signed, included this clause: "The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz..."
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
More posturing that complicates an already unlikely deal. But the idea of compensation/claims between the US and Iran isn't new. There's an entire tribunal in The Hague that's been operating since 1981 to settle claims between the US and Iran.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
But the Mecca agreement does reflect the overall trend toward regional solutions to regional problems that the catastrophic wars of the last three years have only accelerated.
foreignaffairs.com
Only the Middle East Can Fix the Middle East
The path to a post-American regional order.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
A few notes of caution: --be wary of a sectarian alliance frame; plenty of geopolitical fissures remain among Sunni/Arab states --In practice it's unlikely to work as a formal defense pact that could bring partners into a war with Iran (or Israel) --alignments in the region are fluid and layered
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Big development responding to Iran war but builds on regional trends long in the works: --growing assertiveness of MENA middle powers --diversification of political, economic, and security alignments --concerns about both Iranian and Israeli regional posture --declining confidence in the US
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
This is the unfortunate choice after over 5 months of a war that should never have started.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
I wrote a book challenging such assumptions if readers are interested in a different perspective:
sup.org
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
This article encapsulates the deeply entrenched views in Washington toward Iran as much as Iran's deeply entrenched views of Washington. These narratives reinforce the assumption that the problem is always about them, not us.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
very bad news. follows aspects of the previous Israel-Iran shadow war, including reported attacks on water infrastructure in 2020. Once the open war between the US and Iran eventually (hopefully) concludes, the US and Iran could be engaged in their own 'shadow' war for months and years ahead.
inss.org.il
A New Level in the Cyber War between Israel and Iran | INSS
Cyber warfare is conducted secretly and anonymously, unless one of the sides in the confrontation has an interest in exposing it. The attacks are generally launched without claiming responsibility or ...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
The risks of an attack on Iran were well understood for years. but now that we're in a post-attack Middle East, we're testing the worst case scenarios in real time. Still tbd how the war will affect Iran's nuclear ambitions but the odds are not great it will curtail them.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Just came across an article I wrote in 2012 warning against an Israeli attack on Iran and how a post-attack Middle East could be the worst of all outcomes, including for Israel. But Netanyahu never believed this and unfortunately neither did Trump.
rand.org
Israel's Risky Option on Iran
While a nuclear-armed Iran that hasn't been attacked is dangerous, one that has been attacked may be much more likely to brandish its capabilities, to make sure it does not face an attack again, write...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
So important to document the human costs of the Iran war and its ripple effects across the globe.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Enrichment for Saudis; enrichment for Trump. A win-win.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
yep. what's especially tragic is that all of these concerns were well-understood before the war and are now already our reality.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
And remember these reports less than a week before the US started the war? One of the many reasons folks were concerned about going to war with Iran.
washingtonpost.com
Trump’s top general foresees acute risks in an attack on Iran
The Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman has said that a lack of munitions and allied support could mean greater danger for U.S. troops, people familiar with the talks say.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
And here's a CSIS report from December 2025 about this very challenge, all drawing on publicly available data.
csis.org
Are We Running Out of Missile Defense Interceptors? | CSIS Events
The CSIS Missile Defense Project is pleased to roll out its new brief, The Depleting Missile Defense Interceptor Inventory.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Worth recalling that there is publicly available evidence that the depleted stockpile issue was a concern BEFORE the war and DURING the Trump administration, especially given experience of the June 2025 attack which Trump chose to join.
csmonitor.com
With missile stockpiles low and tensions with Iran high, US moves to increase weapons
America’s recent use of missile interceptors has left supplies low. An Iranian counterattack would deepen the dent. The U.S. is now trying to restock.
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