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Dalia Dassa Kaye

@dassakaye.bsky.social
3K followers 289 following 928 posts

Middle East/geopolitics/diplomacy analyst. Current: Senior Fellow, UCLA Burkle Center. Former: Director, RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. More info here: www.daliadassakaye.net.

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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 9h
Spotted in front of a lingerie shop in Juneau Alaska
Photo of a sign in Juneau Alaska
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Correct, and it's strange to take credit for stopping a wider war when the April exchange was the first direct open conflict between the Israel and Iran (ie, a wider war). It set the stage for the Oct. exchange and operationally at least, the June 2025 attack.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
You can read this as Trump trying to up the pressure on Iran to get a better deal. Or the conventional view that neither side wants to return to war may actually be wrong. Let’s remember that was the prevailing view before Trump started this mess.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Looking forward to joining this terrific group of distinguished fellows @perryworldhouse.bsky.social this year.
perryworldhouse.upenn.edu
Perry World House Announces 2026-27 Distinguished Visiting Fellows - Perry World House
Perry World House (PWH) – the University of Pennsylvania’s hub for global affairs – is pleased to announce its 2026-27 cohort of distinguished visiting fellows. Over the course of the year, these scho...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Remember all the takes about how Trump was the one who could press Netanyahu toward peace?
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Reposted by Dalia Dassa Kaye
Stanford University Press @stanfordpress.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Choice reviewed Enduring Hostility by @dassakaye.bsky.social "This excellent, engaging book fills a major gap in the literature on US policy toward Iran, focusing on the post-hostage crisis after the Islamic revolution of 1979.... Highly recommended."
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Wow.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Blinken is saying this quote is false. One day the historical record may tell us more. What we do know is that the wider track record of the Biden team (before and after Oct. 7) was a deferential approach to Netanyahu and avoidance of public ruptures with Israel.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
He also says there’s “relatively little active engagement” right now, on a day when Iran launched a major missile barrage on US forces in Jordan (and US hit 5 Iranian oil tankers).
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Yes, LA is feeling like Miami this week. Not ok.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Daily reminder that the US and Iran are still engaged in a costly war and "tit-for-tat" attacks can quickly escalate by intention or by accident. The result will not look good either way.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Attention on this important @haaretzcom.bsky.social story is focused on the warnings Netanyahu ignored before the Hamas Oct. 7 attack. But equally chilling is his government's neglect of the hostages after the attack despite proposals to free them from day 1
haaretz.com
Netanyahu got an explicit warning before Oct. 7. He didn't brief security chiefs
In September '23, UAE President bin Zayed called Netanyahu to deliver a harsh warning. Netanyahu did nothing. An extensive investigation, conducted for a new book, reveals the PM's failures surroundin...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
There's no question this war has been a strategic disaster for the US and we'll be living with the consequences for some time. But it's unclear Iran is any better at reading US domestic politics than the US has been at understanding political dynamics within Iran. They can also miscalculate.
nytimes.com
A More Confident Iran Emerges After Six Months of War With the U.S.
New intelligence reports have assessed that Iran now has a far better understanding of its capabilities and the limits of U.S. power.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The goals of this war were always unclear. But from day 1 regime change was clearly in the mix. The question has always been, what if the regime doesn't fall? Then what? We've been living with the consequences of having no answer to that for over six months.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
If anyone's in the Triangle area tomorrow and interested in the latest on US-Iran, please join my chat with @bwj77.bsky.social tomorrow!
sanford.duke.edu
Enduring Hostility: The Making of America's Iran Policy | Sanford School of Public Policy
Enduring Hostility: The Making of America's Iran Policy
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
This.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
and already reports of Iranian strikes on US base in Jordan. Iran is not going to let Trump claim the war is over.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
As expected, China isn't going along with Trump's latest attempt to pressure Iran in a war that was built on false assumptions and strategic incoherence.
nytimes.com
China Pushes Back After Trump Tightens the Screws on Iran
The Trump administration risks a clash with Beijing as it tries to cut off Iran’s economic lifelines without upending a fragile U.S.-China truce.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Good summation from @ishaantharoor.bsky.social on the strategic failure of the Iran war six months on. The scorecard is pretty dismal: --more dangerous Iranian leaders/more suffering for its people --more instability across the region --more setbacks for US interests globally
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
There was already debate about the still sizable US footprint in the Middle East well before the Iran war. But the war will accelerate pressures to rethink force presence. Unfortunately this rethink could have been done without putting American personnel in harms way.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Trump today: Hormuz is "open and operating" NYT today: "The average number of ships transiting the strait over the last week was about 12 vessels per day, down from more than 130 a day before the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February."
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
The US has not always been at war with Iran. The US and Iran have had an adversarial relationship for 47 years with destructive episodes, including military exchanges during the Tanker war in the 1980's. But the US and Iran were not 'at war' until Trump 2.0
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Reminder that the June MOU, which Trump signed, included this clause: "The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz..."
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
More posturing that complicates an already unlikely deal. But the idea of compensation/claims between the US and Iran isn't new. There's an entire tribunal in The Hague that's been operating since 1981 to settle claims between the US and Iran.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Big development responding to Iran war but builds on regional trends long in the works: --growing assertiveness of MENA middle powers --diversification of political, economic, and security alignments --concerns about both Iranian and Israeli regional posture --declining confidence in the US
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
This is the unfortunate choice after over 5 months of a war that should never have started.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
I wrote a book challenging such assumptions if readers are interested in a different perspective:
sup.org
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
very bad news. follows aspects of the previous Israel-Iran shadow war, including reported attacks on water infrastructure in 2020. Once the open war between the US and Iran eventually (hopefully) concludes, the US and Iran could be engaged in their own 'shadow' war for months and years ahead.
inss.org.il
A New Level in the Cyber War between Israel and Iran | INSS
Cyber warfare is conducted secretly and anonymously, unless one of the sides in the confrontation has an interest in exposing it. The attacks are generally launched without claiming responsibility or ...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Just came across an article I wrote in 2012 warning against an Israeli attack on Iran and how a post-attack Middle East could be the worst of all outcomes, including for Israel. But Netanyahu never believed this and unfortunately neither did Trump.
rand.org
Israel's Risky Option on Iran
While a nuclear-armed Iran that hasn't been attacked is dangerous, one that has been attacked may be much more likely to brandish its capabilities, to make sure it does not face an attack again, write...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
So important to document the human costs of the Iran war and its ripple effects across the globe.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Enrichment for Saudis; enrichment for Trump. A win-win.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
And remember these reports less than a week before the US started the war? One of the many reasons folks were concerned about going to war with Iran.
washingtonpost.com
Trump’s top general foresees acute risks in an attack on Iran
The Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman has said that a lack of munitions and allied support could mean greater danger for U.S. troops, people familiar with the talks say.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Worth recalling that there is publicly available evidence that the depleted stockpile issue was a concern BEFORE the war and DURING the Trump administration, especially given experience of the June 2025 attack which Trump chose to join.
csmonitor.com
With missile stockpiles low and tensions with Iran high, US moves to increase weapons
America’s recent use of missile interceptors has left supplies low. An Iranian counterattack would deepen the dent. The U.S. is now trying to restock.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
👇 or even bigger and more catastrophic escalation.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
The latest example of what happens when you have personalized gov't and no normal policy process. Also, Biden invested an inexplicable amount of time trying to link the nuclear carrot to Saudi normalization with Israel with zero results.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Same as it ever was (since February 28)
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Going from bad to worse as Iran war further regionalizes. The looming risk of a Red Sea closure/disruption combined with continuing Hormuz closure appears to be happening. Finding an offramp for Hormuz couldn't come soon enough.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Some of the more interesting ideas for an offramp to US-Iran escalation focus on regional solutions. @yarbatman.bsky.social and his group are thinking creatively about how to get out of the Hormuz crisis that this war unfortunately created. Even if politically difficult it's a basis to build on.
bourseandbazaar-substack.org
How a 'Hormuz Fee' Could Work
A regional fee would institutionalize the kind of positive-sum diplomacy that can prevent further disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
very bad news and situation is only likely to worsen. also while hopefully the missing service member is found and Jordan is friendly territory, this is a reminder that American service members are at risk of being captured if something goes wrong on Iranian territory.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Trump's repeated claims that the door to diplomacy is open and that Iran wants a deal mean little if he thinks it's still possible to reopen Hormuz through force.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
US-Iran state of play looking very bad today/tonight and could get a lot worse if Iran makes good on its threats to 'crush' region's infrastructure.
reuters.com
Iran and US step up attacks, release of American in dispute
Iran and the United States exchanged intensifying fire on Thursday in a week-long escalation that has largely unraveled last month's truce, while ‌Tehran disputed President Donald Trump's claim that a...
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
if this scenario unfolds, it could be catastrophic and would require substantial US forces. and it likely won't work. but we can't rule it out given the strategic incoherence in Washington rn.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Excellent analysis from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on X suggesting the current US strike pattern may be setting the stage for ground troops to seize Iran's southern coastal area. If accurate, this may not just be another round of attacks before more talks but an attempt to solve Hormuz through force.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
At what point do we acknowledge that sustained attacks on Iranian territory and counter attacks on US bases in the region are a return to war? Not calling this war doesn't make it less of a war, one that never ended and should never have started.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Of course. The only consistent message in Trump's statements on this Iran debacle is that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon, which it didn't have before this war.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
"Absent some out-of-the-box plan no one has thought of, Trump’s options are narrow and might not work." Good summary of the miserable state of play that this reckless war has wrought.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
it's so bad some pubs are even shutting down their fish and chip fryers!
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
is there any evidence to date that Rutte's obsequious posture toward Trump has produced policy shifts favorable to Europe/NATO?
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
here we go again--threats on civilian infrastructure.
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Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
The thing is, Trump doesn't have the final say on whether talks continue. Let's see how Iran responds. But without even the ambiguous MOU as a framework, moving back to de-escalation will be far more difficult, let alone talks toward a final deal.
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