iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 06/09/2026

But it’s a side effect of the thing he’s doing, not the purpose (at least in his mind)

Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 06/09/2026

I think that misses the point that an individual can choose to stop doing one thing but that won’t stop the industry from continuing to do that thing.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 16/08/2026

Judging by the rattling of our windows, I cannot imagine the turbulence on this YOLO flight coming into Maui right now…

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 07/07/2026

You ever see a movie trailer where like every character is played by an A-lister?

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 01/07/2026

Updated version of this paper dropping soon!

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 13/06/2026

It hasn’t even been 24 hours and I’m fiending for a fix…

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 10/06/2026

So… I suppose this is life with Fable 5?

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 04/06/2026

Wading into the fourth Dungeon Crawler Carl book wondering what exactly is wrong with me…

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 22/05/2026

This is secretly a NYers favorite pastime. I seek out strollers to carry up/down stairs.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 15/05/2026

I like how he watermarked our chart with his handle. Haha

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Reposted by Daniel Mangrum

New York Fed @newyorkfed.org · 12/05/2026

In today’s post, the authors share that our latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit finds that while student loan balances remained unchanged in Q1 2026, the share of student loan balances past due increased, neared pre-pandemic levels at just over 10%. nyfed.org/433SNF2

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

Federal Student Loan Defaults Return After Pandemic Pause - Liberty Street Economics

A look at federal student loan default rates and which borrowers have defaulted on their loans over the past two quarters, exploring credit implications.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 11/05/2026

“…and we harshly judge those who do”

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 09/05/2026

Pedestrian is a very strange word choice here…

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 06/05/2026

Come for the gambling, stick around for the spatial spillover bias with TWFE in a staggered difference-in-differences setting.

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Reposted by Daniel Mangrum

New York Fed @newyorkfed.org · 01/05/2026

Pssst. It's us. The New York Fed is here on Bluesky. Make your way to the front of the line to become one of our earliest followers. And feel free to repost! It's not really a secret!

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 28/04/2026

Issues with spatial spillovers in staggered DD designs: Exhibit A

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 23/04/2026

Have you tried asking Claude?

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 17/04/2026

I’m trying to imagine the tote bag/coffee mug/hoodie you get for a donation of that size...

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 16/04/2026

I’d recognize that carpet anywhere. Is that the Holiday Inn?

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 16/04/2026

Life goal: a deck with only pictures and figures

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 16/04/2026

My slides are about to be **poppin’**

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 03/04/2026

But how many would they collect in Nashville?

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 29/03/2026

Very disappointed. Cedric needs to be shut down.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 18/03/2026

I really expected the river to still be a bit green though...

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 18/03/2026

Wheels up soon to #AEFP2026. I’ll be chairing a session in the first block tomorrow and presenting in the second. If you’re interested in higher ed finance, I’ll see you at both!

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 18/03/2026

*”fine to use” TBD by data vendor of course

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 17/03/2026

You can install a local version of established models that run siloed without the ability to “phone home.” The inputs don’t get fed anywhere for training or leave the local install. They’re just evaluated. So they are fine to use with sensitive and confidential data.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 17/03/2026

Underrated massive improvement from LLMs on research productivity? Documentation! Everything of mine is vastly more organized now. Within and across projects and workflows. Maybe that’s just a tell of how bad it was for me before but a huge improvement to have organized digital headspace.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 17/03/2026

Came to say the same thing. IMO its a narrow view on the current dominant mode people use LLMs but these good models are going to be local installs with no training very soon and that alleviates a lot of concerns.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 10/03/2026

I’ve found performance to be miserable with pdfs. I just point it to the tex file and have it read the input tex/images that the tex links to.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 26/02/2026

Ignoring spatial spillovers doesn’t just attenuate estimates, it also undercounts scale. “Control” states are already betting and experiencing credit distress. Methodologically, this matters for any staggered DD where state policies spill across borders (marijuana, minimum wage, firearms, etc.).

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 26/02/2026

Spillovers create a fiscal asymmetry: states that haven’t legalized bear costs from spillover betting without capturing tax revenue. We simulate legalization for not yet legal states. Missouri (with KC and STL sitting on legal-state borders) gets the highest revenue-per-delinquency ratio.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 26/02/2026

Using the NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel, we find legalization raises overall delinquency by 0.31 pp. For under-40s, credit card delinquency rises ~1 pp and auto loan delinquency rises 0.55 pp. Scaling by the 3.1% take-up rate implies ~10 pp overall delinquency increases among induced bettors.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 26/02/2026

Residents of non-legal states near legal borders cross state lines to bet on their phones. Counties within 15 miles of a legal state see spillover spending ~14% of the direct effect. The effect fades nearly linearly with distance and hits roughly zero by 60 miles.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 26/02/2026

Since the 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, 38 states have legalized mobile sports betting. Using transaction data covering 80M+ accounts, we find legalization increases sportsbook spending ~10x and raises betting participation by 3.1 pp. But the effects don’t stop at state lines.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 26/02/2026

🧵 Jake Goss and I have a new paper where we study how legalized mobile sports betting affects consumer credit and how betting spills across state lines into places where it’s still illegal. newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1184

newyorkfed.org

Staff Reports

Technical working papers

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 26/02/2026

“Create a baby boom with this one simple trick!”

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