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Spillovers create a fiscal asymmetry: states that haven’t legalized bear costs from spillover betting without capturing tax revenue. We simulate legalization for not yet legal states. Missouri (with KC and STL sitting on legal-state borders) gets the highest revenue-per-delinquency ratio.

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Using the NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel, we find legalization raises overall delinquency by 0.31 pp. For under-40s, credit card delinquency rises ~1 pp and auto loan delinquency rises 0.55 pp. Scaling by the 3.1% take-up rate implies ~10 pp overall delinquency increases among induced bettors.

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Residents of non-legal states near legal borders cross state lines to bet on their phones. Counties within 15 miles of a legal state see spillover spending ~14% of the direct effect. The effect fades nearly linearly with distance and hits roughly zero by 60 miles.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 17/02/2026

Since the 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, 38 states have legalized mobile sports betting. Using transaction data covering 80M+ accounts, we find legalization increases sportsbook spending ~10x and raises betting participation by 3.1 pp. But the effects don’t stop at state lines.

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For reference, I’ve used variants of this style prompt to produce simulated reports/editor decisions on my own papers and the quality is generally pretty good. The key is to not have any agent review its own work. Shocker: agents are quite happy with the work they produced.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 31/12/2025

Just by the skin of my teeth this year.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 21/11/2025

Starting to worry a bit about the last 2 minutes of my flight…

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 09/06/2025

Hands down best example of AI enhanced productivity. Shoutout to peach puff

ChatGPT output listing 25 RGB color values

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6. Nearly 2 million IDR applications are pending as of the end of April. 80k were processed during April. Also 50k PSLF buyback requests pending. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

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4. 45% of student loan borrowers with a payment due in Mississippi are past due

Map of student loan delinquency rates. Data available in the link

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3. Under 30s are the only group with a student loan delinquency rate below pre-pandemic (conditional on having a payment due).

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 20/12/2024

A few student loan stats. First 4 from our new blog post, last 2 from ED. 1. Nearly 1 in 4 student loan borrowers with a payment due was past due at the end of the first quarter libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/05/stud...

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NBA might need a mercy rule…

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 20/11/2024

A shame to see one of my favorite (heated!) outdoor dining setups is now parking for a jeep.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 19/11/2024

Looking forward to connecting with folks in DC/MD later this week at APPAM and SEA. I’ll be presenting a new paper on financial education and pandemic-era financial decisions (as well as discussing a couple awesome papers) at APPAM.

Session Title: ID# 20729: Student Loans and Financial Decisions
Paper Title: ID# 54303 Financial Education and Household Financial Decisions during the Pandemic
Session Date: Friday, November 22, 2024
Session Time: 8:30 AM Eastern Time
Session Room: Camellia 2

Session Title: ID# 19935: College Access and Financial Consequences
Role: Discussant

Session Date: Friday, November 22, 2024
Session Time: 3:30 PM Eastern Time
Session Room: National Harbor 14

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 18/11/2024

While the statistic below is undoubtedly true, there’s a glimmer of optimism regarding credit card delinquency when we consider the transition into newly 90+ day delinquent credit card debt. (More details in a🧵.)

A time series of delinquency rates for various credit product types, spanning from 2003Q1 to 2024Q3, is presented. This analysis highlights the credit card delinquency rate, which exhibited a gradual increase from approximately 4% in early 2017 to 5.5% just prior to the pandemic. Notably, the series experienced a sudden decline to a record low of 3.5% in late 2021, followed by a rapid ascent through 2024. Since the start of 2024, the rate has exhibited a flattening trend before reaching approximately 7% in 2024Q3. The underlying data can be accessed on the FRBNY Center for Microeconomic Data website.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 24/10/2024

New paper: How did financial education impact household financial decisions during COVID-19? Our new paper finds that financial education increased the likelihood individuals made some opportune pandemic-era credit decisions. #FinancialEducation [1/7] www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary...

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 06/10/2023

You might notice that August and September got almost to pre-pandemic levels even though payments weren’t due yet. We can’t look at transaction level data, but it looks like those were relatively fewer bulk payments right as interest resumes. The daily data shows a peak at September 1st.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 06/10/2023

Here are monthly deposits at Treasury from ED (probably around 90% are student loan payments). Pre-pandemic average was a bit over $6b/month or about $75b a year. That number isn’t about to jump to $120b.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 30/09/2023

Behold! A B with blue seats!

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 24/08/2022

Prior to the pandemic pause, only 37% of borrowers had a year-over-year declining balance. At the end of 2021, that share had declined to 27% because of the pause.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 24/08/2022

The state with the largest borrower delinquency rate before the pandemic was Mississippi at 21.6%. Since the pause marked all eligible past-due loans as current, delinquency rates dropped across the board. West Virginia was the highest at the end of 2021 at 11% (MS at 10.7%).

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 04/04/2022

I found both sets of grandparents in the 1950s census! On my father's side, my grandmother and grandfather were living in Newport News, VA. My aunt was an infant and my father was born later on that year. My grandfather is listed as a clothes cleaner (and g'mother as HH head).

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 21/10/2021

So… I had no idea the Hamilton ticket lottery was for front row seats #SplashZone

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 18/05/2021

After a less than ideal exit from Nashville last summer, commencement was a fantastic opportunity to see some great friends @andreamoro @kkoutout

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 12/09/2020

Pretty incredible to see in person

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 21/05/2020

Lastly, we use mobility data to track where and how students traveled to test what type of travel was associated with larger growth rates. We find that many students transited through airports, to New York City, and to Florida destinations, but fewer students took cruises.

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 21/05/2020

We split counties into more/less early spring break students and find higher growth rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the week after students returned (primary infections) and then two weeks after students return (secondary spread).

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 26/04/2020

We figured we needed learn how to make Nashville hot chicken before we left Nashville

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 28/03/2020

Fantastic day to brew a batch of quarantine beer

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Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · 01/01/2020

Remind me again why #ASSA isn’t in San Diego every year

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I find that students bound by PFL mandates are more likely to correctly answer questions pertaining to federal student loans. This mechanism is consistent with studies that find simplifying the FAFSA and federal student loan process can improve financial aid outcomes. 18/n

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I leverage this variation in the percentage of college cohorts who were bound by PFL mandates to identify the causal effect of PFL mandates on federal student loan repayment. This variation is driven by state adoption of mandates combined with student migration to colleges. 14/n

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I find that first generation and low income students at public universities who had to do PFL coursework are better at repaying student loans (around 5% more likely to have made progress on their loans one year after entering repayment). 8/n

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