iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 8h

While I'm happy to help, my online time is spotty so I'm probably not very reliable. So my "help" is debatable.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 8h

For clarity: all ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) continue to warm, per the NASA graphic.

NASA graphic, showing that all ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) continue to warm.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

"The distinct decrease in 36Cl concentrations below 290 m (fig. S5A) in GP1992 is used as evidence for very old ice (>500 ka)" To not coin a phrase: Fascinating.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

One of my finest moments was when my 9 year old discovered Led Zeppelin and decided I was cool again.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Troll reported and blocked. All should do likewise.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

There's been video animations of Arctic sea ice movements which show it behaving similarly to your work, which is fabulous, btw.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Partly. But sea ice floats with the winds long before solidifying into vast sheets. In the process it stacks and slabs, forming immense pressure ridges. The Great Lakes are essentially freshwater seas. As a Michigan native I've over 6 decades of personal, observational experience with them.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It would be fascinating to repeat these exercises for winter lake ice.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Getting nuisance FOIA's is disheartening.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Jeff mentioned that the underlying driver of the warming ocean is human-caused global warming (driven by our FF GHG emissions). Here's what all ocean phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) are doing:

NASA graphic, showing that the underlying driver of the warming ocean is human-caused global warming (driven by our FF GHG emissions). Here's what all ocean phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) are doing:

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Thank you, for conceding the well-understood science on this topic, by resorting to juvenile personal attacks. Reported and blocked.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Also reported and blocked. NASA needs better treatment.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Back to school for you. Studies determining the residence time of water vapor in the atmosphere abound, with 8-10 days being canon (ie, a fact). For example: "Recent studies determined the residence time of moisture in the atmosphere to be 8–10 days" agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Land Surface Processes Create Patterns in Atmospheric Residence Time of Water

Land surface affects atmospheric residence time of moisture Transpiration has a significantly different atmospheric residence time distribution than canopy evaporation The probability of rainout du...

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

It's nice to see climate research with local connections.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Water vapor excursions equalize in about a 9 day period, so the net effect you describe is far less than is obvious.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

That's obviously not the intended purpose of the animation.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

The UP had a very warm, long summer. We also had lots of snow cover last winter with record deep snow. But it wasn't that cold, by UP standards.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

And promptly precipitates out over the next 9 days.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Also, the temperature warming effects of our FF GHG emissions are essentially forever, on the timescale of human lifetimes.

NASA graphic, based on Solomon 2009, showing that the temperature warming effects of our FF GHG emissions are essentially forever, on the timescale of human lifetimes.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Condolences. He will be missed. He always found time for me.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I've always found the Truth Sandwich/Innoculation Theory to be the safest and most effective method to combat climate science disinformation.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The terms "global warming" and "climate change" mean different things, have always been used independently and are not interchangeable.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Well, they got rid of their climate change website team...

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

That's how temperature baselines...work.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Michael Mann has seen it. "the recent global surface temperature spike is entirely consistent with expectations from the combined effects of model-predicted long-term warming and routine natural climate variability" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

It's hard to say with precision, but you're probably not far off. The most recent 20 years are so out-of-range compared to the previous 2,000 years of SSTs that there's simply no confidence of priors.

Graphic, showing that the most recent 20 years are so out-of-range compared to the previous 2,000 years of SSTs that there's simply no confidence of priors.

From Magerman, 2013

https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/files/final_submissions/8179?remediate_token=eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6ODE3OSwiZXhwIjoiMjAyNi0wOS0xM1QyMjo0Nzo0Ny44NTdaIiwicHVyIjoicmVtZWRpYXRlX3JlcXVlc3QifX0%3D--7f81dfc3d7ca02d7d29ac32d00b1eb041d0dcaf3&remediated=false

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The Burden-of-Proof is on you, the claimant, to support your claim with a citation link to your inputed source. Back to you.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Part of the isotopic "smoking gun", clearly establishing the burning of fossil fuels as the culprit for the observed changes in Earth’s climate.

Graphic, showing the isotopic "smoking gun", clearly establishing the burning of fossil fuels as the culprit for the observed changes in Earth’s climate.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I'm pretty fond of Richard Alley's cover of 'Ring of Fire' m.youtube.com/watch?v=fq22...

m.youtube.com

Ring of Fire (psurockvideo)

YouTube video by psucalley

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Pretty much. 1.5°C is defined as being crossed when the 20-year running average crosses that mark. We're within 5 years of that and we'd require negative emissions to stay below it at this point.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Thank you, for conceding that you're just here to troll. Reported and blocked.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Since no VEI rating has yet been established for the recent Krakatau eruption, there's nothing to substantiate.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Not likely, wrt global temperatures.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

I met Oreskes at the SkS AGU shindig in Washington DC in 2018. Conway I met at JPL. High quality communicators.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

SST is just one warming bucket of the many comprising the Earth’s climate.

Graphic, depicting the many climate warming buckets scientists maintain vigilant track of.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

The causes are unchanged. On short timescales, the mix of those causes has some variability, especially wrt surface temperatures. The temperature of your hair (surface) changes more than the temperature of your body (ocean heat content).

Graphic showing the steady increase in ocean heat content.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Ocean heat content analysis shows that the ocean is warming top-down; thus, not due to underwater volcanoes or heat from the Earth’s crust.

Graphic, depicting ocean heat content analysis that shows that the ocean is warming top-down; thus, not due to underwater volcanoes or heat from the Earth’s crust.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Changes in solar output (TSI) vs temperatures show no correlation.

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