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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

For clarity: all ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) continue to warm, per the NASA graphic.

NASA graphic, showing that all ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) continue to warm.

Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

"The distinct decrease in 36Cl concentrations below 290 m (fig. S5A) in GP1992 is used as evidence for very old ice (>500 ka)" To not coin a phrase: Fascinating.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Jeff mentioned that the underlying driver of the warming ocean is human-caused global warming (driven by our FF GHG emissions). Here's what all ocean phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) are doing:

NASA graphic, showing that the underlying driver of the warming ocean is human-caused global warming (driven by our FF GHG emissions). Here's what all ocean phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) are doing:

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Also, the temperature warming effects of our FF GHG emissions are essentially forever, on the timescale of human lifetimes.

NASA graphic, based on Solomon 2009, showing that the temperature warming effects of our FF GHG emissions are essentially forever, on the timescale of human lifetimes.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

It's hard to say with precision, but you're probably not far off. The most recent 20 years are so out-of-range compared to the previous 2,000 years of SSTs that there's simply no confidence of priors.

Graphic, showing that the most recent 20 years are so out-of-range compared to the previous 2,000 years of SSTs that there's simply no confidence of priors.

From Magerman, 2013

https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/files/final_submissions/8179?remediate_token=eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6ODE3OSwiZXhwIjoiMjAyNi0wOS0xM1QyMjo0Nzo0Ny44NTdaIiwicHVyIjoicmVtZWRpYXRlX3JlcXVlc3QifX0%3D--7f81dfc3d7ca02d7d29ac32d00b1eb041d0dcaf3&remediated=false

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The Burden-of-Proof is on you, the claimant, to support your claim with a citation link to your inputed source. Back to you.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Part of the isotopic "smoking gun", clearly establishing the burning of fossil fuels as the culprit for the observed changes in Earth’s climate.

Graphic, showing the isotopic "smoking gun", clearly establishing the burning of fossil fuels as the culprit for the observed changes in Earth’s climate.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

SST is just one warming bucket of the many comprising the Earth’s climate.

Graphic, depicting the many climate warming buckets scientists maintain vigilant track of.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

The causes are unchanged. On short timescales, the mix of those causes has some variability, especially wrt surface temperatures. The temperature of your hair (surface) changes more than the temperature of your body (ocean heat content).

Graphic showing the steady increase in ocean heat content.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Ocean heat content analysis shows that the ocean is warming top-down; thus, not due to underwater volcanoes or heat from the Earth’s crust.

Graphic, depicting ocean heat content analysis that shows that the ocean is warming top-down; thus, not due to underwater volcanoes or heat from the Earth’s crust.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Changes in solar output (TSI) vs temperatures show no correlation.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

The book "Retreat From a Rising Sea" was pretty good. Countries will be managing such retreats from encroaching sea levels for millennia to come.

Graphic, featuring the IPCC AR6, WG1, Chapter 9, Table 9.10, P. 1305, which shows the 10,000-year commitment to future SLR

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

To be fair, this graphic is based on multiple climate proxies (land & ocean) with global coverage (more than Antarctic ice cores).

NASA graphic showing the past 22,000 years of global temperatures, based on multiple climate proxies (land & ocean) with global coverage (more than Antarctic ice cores).

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Current warming and CO2 increase rates are pretty much unprecedented since modern humans became a species.

NASA Graphic, showing global temperature changes over the past 22,000 years.

Graphic, showing the unprecedented rate of change of atmospheric CO2 levels since preindustrial...vs the previous 800,000 years.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

To be fair, 2 meters SLR by 2100 is still in play and the possibility of greater SLR than that cannot be ruled out. Due to increased losses from land-based ice, SLR is already accelerating and has surpassed thermal expansion as the largest contributor to SLR (continuing for millenniato come).

IPCC Graphic, showing that SLR will continue for millennia, even under best-case scenarios.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

All ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) are warming, being driven by the overwhelming warming forcing from human-caused GHG emissions.

NASA graphic, showing that all ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-NEUTRAL) are warming, being driven by the overwhelming warming forcing from human-caused GHG emissions.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Not misleading. You just misinterpreted it. The chart is straightforward, as is this one:

Graphic, showing the recent unprecedented rise in atmospheric CO2 levels compared to the previous 800,000 years.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Time yet remains, to stop making things worse.

NASA graphic, showing that when GHG emissions stop, temperatures plateau and stop getting worse. Canon since at least the AR4.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

From NASA in 2013 (linky in the alt-text)...

NASA graphic from 2013, about the Pine Island Glacier, characterizing it as "the notorious P.I.G.

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?vanity=NASA&set=a.10151367442216772

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

It's been 15 years, but this article (visually showing the effects of 1 and 6 meters of SLR on areas around the world) still has teeth. 1 meter SLR will happen in the lifetime of those reading this (and likely 2 meters SLR). skepticalscience.com/mapping_sea_...

Graphic and article, visually showing the effects of 1 and 6 meters of SLR on areas around the world. 1 meter SLR will happen in the lifetime of those reading this (and likely 2 meters SLR).

https://skepticalscience.com/mapping_sea_level_rise.html

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Not a substantive or global spike. That would have a cause and such a cause would show in the temperature or CO2 record.

NASA graphic, showing the 800,000 year CO2 record and how anomalous the recent, human-caused spike is.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

What's your evidence for that claim?

NASA graphic, showing the last 22,000 years of global temperature changes.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Another visual, highlighting the departure from the stable Holocene in more detail:

NASA graphic, highlighting the departure from the stable Holocene in more detail.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Scotese, in his 2020 paper, posited that a transition to a Hothouse Earth (post-Anthropogenic world) climate had already begun.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

And because our climate will continue to adjust to the warming from our FF GHG emissions, land-based ice will continue to be lost for millennia, raising global sea levels for millenia (yes, even under best-case low emissions pathways).

Graphic from the IPCC, showing that because our climate will continue to adjust to the warming from our FF GHG emissions, land-based ice will continue to be lost for millennia, raising global sea levels for millenia (yes, even under best-case low emissions pathways).

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

By burning fossil fuels, humans are altering Earth’s climate. By how much? The real risk is that a continuance of that usage of fossil fuels will trigger a transition away from alternating ices ages and warm intervals to a Hothouse Earth hostile to our agriculture and food systems.

Graphic from Scotese, showing that by burning fossil fuels, humans are altering Earth’s climate. By how much? The real risk is that a continuance of that usage of fossil fuels will trigger a transition away from alternating ices ages and warm intervals to a Hothouse Earth hostile to our agriculture and food systems.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

The climate changing impacts of the burning of fossil fuels are very real and permanent, on the timescale of human lifetimes. Our fossil fuel emissions to-date will continue to impact Earth’s climate for longer than nuclear waste.

Graphic from Archer et al, showing that the climate changing impacts of the burning of fossil fuels are very real and permanent, on the timescale of human lifetimes. Our fossil fuel emissions to-date will continue to impact Earth’s climate for longer than nuclear waste.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Land-based ice losses have increased in the recent couple of decades and are now the largest component of SLR.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

"the observed trends are towards the upper limits of the main models" Not...exactly.

Graphic, showing that global temperature observations are well within the central envelope of model ensemble predictions.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

The projected impacts for 3C and above will be devastating. We are far outside the safety bounds of stable climate that allowed agriculture and our civilization to develop. Future SLR will force billions to relocate is another example.

Graphic, showing that we are far outside the safety bounds of stable climate that allowed agriculture and our civilization to develop.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Not warmer every year. Once we stop releasing FF GHG emissions the atmosphere warming plateaus within a decade. But remains elevated above preindustrial for centuries to millennia.

Graphic, showing that once we stop releasing FF GHG emissions the warming plateaus within a decade. But remains elevated above preindustrial for centuries to millennia.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

To follow-up on Dr. Foley's central point, global temperature observations continue to follow the central envelope of climate model predictions.

Graphic, showing that global temperature observations continue to follow the central envelope of climate model predictions.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Not a lot of difference between AI and well-implented social media moderation. My favorite interchange, during my time in the role:

NASA meme, illustrating thst there's not a lot of difference between AI and well-implented social media moderation. A favorite interchange, from NASA Climate Change:

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

It's even more pronounced when you look at the last 400 years of data.

NASA graphic, showing no recent correlation between global temperature anomalies and total solar irradiance(TSI) over the past 400 years.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Truly. Ice sheet long-term response to warming is millennial, spanning all emissions scenarios (including those best-case, low-likelihood ones).

IPCC graphic, showing that ice sheet long-term response to warming is millennial, spanning all emissions scenarios (including those best-case, low-likelihood ones).

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Obviously, more data is better. But if one is concerned with statistical significance, then one has to admit the data used is sound, despite brevity.

Graphic, from data from the State of the Climate 2023, showing various ice loss time series.

https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/publications/journals/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

As few as 17 years of climate data can be used (Santer et al 2013), but 30 or more years are typical. Links in the alt-text.

Graphic, showing that 30 years or more of weather data constitute climate (minimum of 17 years, per Santer et al 2013).

"Climate, sometimes understood as the "average weather,” is defined as the measurement of the mean and variability of relevant quantities of certain variables (such as temperature, precipitation or wind) over a period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.

The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system."

https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1210514109
https://web.archive.org/web/20230130200532/https://public.wmo.int/en/about-us/frequently-asked-questions/climate
https://public.wmo.int/en/about-us/frequently-asked-questions/climate
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/92/6/2010bams2955_1.xml

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Nonsense. Emissions avoided is warming avoided, whether global or country-level.

Graphic demonstrating that emissions avoided due to Paris commitments implemented have led to avoided warming.

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Daniel Bailey @danielbailey99.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

The smoking gun, showing that emissions are from the human burning of fossil fuels.

Graphic, showing that the smoking gun: GHG increases in the atmosphere are from the human burning of fossil fuels.

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