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Dan Bertolet

@danbertolet.bsky.social
1.3K followers 300 following 465 posts

I think it's good when cities are legal, and I work at Sightline Institute to make that happen. My takes on here, though, are no less than 100% mine.

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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Diced another way, for each one of the 8,990 low-income homes created by IZ over the 5-year study period, ~120 renter households paid an extra ~$110/month, adding up to ~$800k per IZ home. Not only is IZ regressive, it's also inefficient compared with other ways of funding affordable housing!
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Back-of-the-envelope, the new IZ study estimates that the typical CA renter household paid an extra ~$110 per month because of the homebuilding IZ thwarted. Meanwhile, homeowners benefit from IZ because home prices rise more. IZ is one of the biggest urban planning mistakes of the modern era.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Until now, the academic research on IZ has been mostly inconclusive because of all the confounding variables in real life cities. This study utilizes a statewide change in IZ's legal status to isolate its effects, and quantifies each program's stringency. Case closed! Here's a good summary:
davisvanguard.org
New Study Finds California Inclusionary Zoning Rules Reduce Housing Construction by Nearly One-Third - Davis Vanguard
A new University of California, Irvine working paper concluded that California's mandatory inclusionary zoning policies significantly reduce housing production, estimating that the state's typical aff...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Note to Seattle policymakers who want to expand MHA: The most rigorous study ever done on IZ found that the typical program in CA reduces homebuilding by nearly one third. And all renters pay the price in higher rents caused by the worsened shortage. Unfunded IZ is a regressive policy.
bpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I wrote this to make the case for funded IZ in WA's TOD bill, but it's true for IZ anywhere, in any economic conditions. There is no dial setting for unfunded IZ that makes it harmless. A lower setting reduces the damage but also reduces the benefit. It's a zero sum game!
sightline.org
To Fix Inclusionary Zoning, Fund It | Sightline Institute
Takeaways On Labor Day weekend, Sound Transit opened four more stops of its light rail line north of Seattle. But when I took my inaugural ride, I had my eye on something equally important as the shin...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Good on CM Foster for stepping up on dialing back MHA! Not so good, though, about expanding MHA into NR zones. IZ is especially bad for small scale projects, which is why Oregon state law bans IZ for projects with 10 units or less. And the only real way to get the IZ dials right is to fund it.
publicola.com
Greater Seattle: Councilmember Foster Breaks the MHA Logjam - PubliCola
By Josh Feit Councilmember Dionne Foster > Mayor Katie Wilson You couldn’t have a clearer juxtaposition. Mayor Wilson tried to…
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Wildfires like the one that recently destroyed ~800 homes in Spokane create an urgent need for rapidly deployable, low-cost housing. Mobile dwellings could be housing people who've lost their homes right now - if they were legal. This is one reason to pass a state MDU bill but not the only one...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Portland's legalization of mobile dwellings is a total success story. In the neighborhood surveyed, MDUs have overtaken ADUs. MDUs are the lowest-cost, quickest to deploy type of home there is. They should be legal on residential lots in all cities. www.sightline.org/2026/08/19/s...
sightline.org
Seven Lessons from Portland’s Mobile Dwelling Experiment | Sightline Institute
A new survey reveals the growing popularity of this low-cost, flexible housing solution.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Quick google says 14% of people are under 18 in Seattle, compared with 22% for the entire US.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Yeah, Seattle didn't build many 3-bedroom apartments but still saw a 10% increase in population of children. And it built mostly studios and 1-beds, which are probably too small for most downsizers. Nothing jumps to my mind to explain the Seattle data.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Bellingham may be the first WA city to legalize mobile dwellings in residential neighborhoods. MDUs are the least expensive, fasted to deploy housing type there is. MDUs should be legal in all cities, which is why @sightline.org is working on statewide legislation in both WA and OR.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
And here's a good thread on why inclusionary zoning harms the very people it's intended to help when it impedes the construction of new homes. bsky.app/profile/maxd...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
New study finds that unfunded inclusionary zoning: - reduces resid. construction by nearly a third - relocates MF developments to lower rent areas - costs renters $800,000 in excess rents per IZ unit created Who could have guessed that taxing housing to fund affordable housing is a bad idea?
bpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Excellent discussion of how a land value tax can help cities get more housing built and boost economic development in their downtowns. WA state could authorize the equivalent of an LVT with the Vibrant Cities Act, which will be a top legislative priority for @sightline.org in the 2027 session.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Vancouver BC's Villages Plan is the first proposal in many decades in any North American city that would substantially push apartment zones into the leafy neigbhorhoods away from noisy, polluted arterials. Public input has been mostly negative, big surprise. www.sightline.org/2026/07/10/i...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Vancouver's proposed Village Plan would allow small apartment buildings on three to four blocks surrounding 17 designated centers. In other words, a big step for apartments not on dangerous, polluted arterial streets. Public hearing is tomorrow 7/14 at 6pm. www.sightline.org/2026/07/10/i...
sightline.org
In Pictures: The Possibilities of Vancouver’s New Villages Plan | Sightline Institute
The Four/Five design prioritizes green space, daylight, affordability, and accessibility—all for greater connection and community.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
It's tunnel vision to focus on MHA generating funds for affordable housing. It can! But it comes at the cost of raising rents for everyone else. Because no housing gets built until the worsening shortage pushes up rents high enough to offset the MHA fee. And that hits lower-income renters hardest.
seattletimes.com
Seattle walks back plan to lower fees funding affordable housing
Days before a deal to lower developer fees that fund affordable housing was expected to be released to the public, City Hall is backing away from the idea.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
One reason this backsliding never ends is because the deal itself reinforced the idea that taxing housing to pay for housing is fine as long as it’s calibrated. No. Unfunded inclusionary zoning is bad policy that harms renters in all economic conditions and it should be abolished everywhere.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Spokane Councilmember Klitzke is leading the charge for state legislation that would authorize the equivalent of a land value tax: “A property tax that exempts buildings and shifts the burden onto land would give us a new and powerful tool to fill in our gaps while keeping Spokane affordable.”
spokesman.com
Most Spokane homeowners would pay less tax under reform proposal. Here's who would pay more
Some Spokane politicians want to replace the existing property tax system with one that shifts tax burden from homes, apartments and many commercial properties and place it instead onto parking lots ...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Excited to be working on a new approach to a land value tax that would be legal in WA state. Tax buildings less and land more and you'll get more new buildings and less vacant land. It's a non-zoning solution for mitigating the housing shortage, and it's value capture done right.
sightline.org
Yes, a Land Value Tax Is Possible in Washington State | Sightline Institute
A new report modeling a property tax building exemption in Spokane rebalances incentives toward community goals, encouraging homebuilding and discouraging in-city vacant land speculation.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
The persistence of folks like Alex Fryer and Toby Thaler is a thing to behold. Remember this one? That watercolor illustration! And a classic quote from Gerry Pollet. www.seattletimes.com/opinion/edit...
seattletimes.com
Legislature should reject plan to upend single-family zoning
Legislators should reject a bill that would allow more density in single-family neighborhoods without ensuring new housing is actually affordable.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Good news for cash-strapped cities hesitant to upzone: "Building homes near existing jobs, stores, and transit saves public dollars, in both up-front infrastucture and ongoing maintenance, and produces more property taxes per acre than local gov'ts can expect from development at the edge of town."
pew.org
Building Homes Near Jobs, Stores, and Transit Saves Public Dollars
Amid a national housing shortage, momentum is growing at the state and local levels to make it easier to build more homes—a proven way of reducing unaffordable rents and home prices. A key question fa...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
And as my colleague @andersem.bsky.social wrote: "Across Auckland, median home prices have receded 20 percent from their COVID peak. Abundance: it does what it says on the tin." medium.com/@andersem/ab...
medium.com
Abundance Also Works Well Outside California, Thank You Very Much Ezra
I admire Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s self-criticism, but it’s misplaced.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
For the upzoning skeptics: Auckland. The effect was strong because the upzone was big. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Virginia and Kentucky just passed state bills to enable land value taxes. Renewed interest in LVT has been popping up all of the country. @sightline.org is working with legislators and advocates to develop a bill for 2027 in Washington. progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/two-states...
progressandpoverty.substack.com
Two States Pass Land Value Tax Enabling Legislation -- Landscape 8
With back-to-back wins in Virginia and Kentucky, land value taxation is re-emerging as a viable policy tool.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
What design elements for multi-generational?
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Yet another vacancy chain paper, but with a new contribution: evidence that some residents downsize into the new condos. That is, they open up *larger* homes. Building small apartments is a solution for increasing the availablity of family-sized homes. morehousing.substack.com/p/honolulu
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
SF should just go all the way and eliminate IZ altogether. Even at 5% it will kill marginal homebuilding projects. It will do less damage than if it wasn't lowered, but there is no magic threshold below which undfunded IZ is harmless. It's like watching someone go through the stages of grief.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Pew has a new 3-minute video spotlighting the story of a real person who was able to move into an affordable home because of the vacancy chain created by the construction of an expensive new, market-rate apartment building. www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQYM...
youtube.com
Building More Housing Creates 'Moving Chains' of Affordability
YouTube video by Pew
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Another way to think about this is that if Seattle hadn't built so many new rental apartments, renters would now have housing costs much closer to Seattle's high ownership costs. www.seattletimes.com/business/rea...
seattletimes.com
Think owning a Seattle home is pricey? Here’s how much harder it has become
While homeownership has always cost more than renting, the gap between the two has soared since 2020.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
San Francisco is moving in the right direction on inclusionary zoning. It will reduce its IZ requirement to 5 percent of units, and to compensate, will double its housing trust fund, which is mostly funded from property taxes. Property tax is a much better way to fund rent-restricted housing!
connectcre.com
Lurie Seeks to Lower Inclusionary Rate, Increase Annual Contribution to Housing Trust Fund - Connect CRE
San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie introduced two proposals to help spur the production of housing in the city. One would reduce the mandated inclusionary rate of affordable units in market-rate develop...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
San Francisco assessed its IZ and found that "none of the financial models could support any inclusionary housing." That's because under current economic conditions pretty much nothing pencils even if 100% market rate. IZ just makes it worse, as it always does. media.api.sf.gov/documents/Tr...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Ahoy housing wonks in Alaska and BC! Sightline is hiring part-time contributors to help advance housing abundance in these two corners of Cascadia. Please spread the word! www.sightline.org/about/careers/
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Good on the NYT for calling out how inclusionary zoning backfires and worsens affordability. Great to see wider recognition of this reality. But it's not only when IZ mandates "too many" BMR units. If IZ puts *any* extra cost burden on homebuilding it will backfire. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Great to see @futurewise.bsky.social taking on the task of making sure we get proper implementation of all the building code reform bills that WA has passed since 2023. futurewise.org/get-involved...
futurewise.org
Get Involved: Building Code Reform and Advocacy - Futurewise
In recent years, there has been growing attention to the barriers that existing building codes in the United States pose to goals of building more housing, in
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Scissor stairs are typically associated with skinny highrise towers, but they're a good option to have for midrise buildings too, like this new 6-story apartment building in Brooklyn designed by @panyc.bsky.social.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Guest contributor @markusja.bsky.social gives the rundown on another first for Washington state on legislation to increase housing options: HB 2228 sets the process in motion for updating the building code to allow scissor stairs. www.sightline.org/2026/05/13/w...
sightline.org
Washington Passes First Statewide Scissor Stair Reform | Sightline Institute
The measure ushers in more light-filled, infill-suited apartment homes—and sets a model for other states.
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Reposted by Dan Bertolet
Catie Gould @citizen-cate.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Happy Birthday to the Parking Reform & Modernization Act! 🎂 @jessdbateman.bsky.social www.sightline.org/2026/05/07/w...
sightline.org
Washington State’s Parking Reform Is Already Working | Sightline Institute
Cities are laying the groundwork for more homes thanks to new flexibility on parking—with other states taking note.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
I've never come across a building like this built in Seattle in the last decade or more. Curious if anyone else has? Pretty sure it would have been legal to build in the previous low-rise zones, but builders almost always do townhouses. I don't understand why it works in Portland.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Legalize apartment buildings!
sightline.org
Climate Is Stuck, Housing Isn’t | Sightline Institute
Why apartments may be the most powerful domestic climate move of the Trump years.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Four stories would be even better.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
The perfect, low-cost, infill solution for retrofitting detached house neighborhoods anywhere and everywhere: Six 900 sf, 2-bedroom flats. Selling for $300k (in Portland). On a standard 5,000 sf house lot. Bottom two units accessible. No on-site parking. www.redfin.com/OR/Portland/...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
@andersem.bsky.social
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Good explainer on land value taxes. @sightline.org is continuing work initiated in WA's 2026 session to develop legislation that exempts building value from property tax, which has all the benefits of a split rate land value tax, but doesn't run afoul of the state constitution's uniformity clause.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
But if you want to know how I really feel read #1 and #3 at the link below. There is no magic calibrated requirement that won't do damage. Using IZ to capture the value of upzones is like one step forward and one step back. The way that IZ is so accepted as legit policy continues to blow my mind.
sightline.org
Five Flaws That Would Destine WA’s TOD Bills to Backfire | Sightline Institute
Allowing more apartment buildings in city neighborhoods where transportation options and jobs are abundant, is critical for Washington to address the housing shortage and control prices and rents; to ...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Yes, overally affordability in Seattle would be better in the long run if we got rid of MHA completely. Increase the housing levy, expand the MFTE program, and if necessary, tap into other broad-based tax revenue to fund affordable homes.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Yes, one solution is to cover the cost of providing the required below-market homes with a propety tax abatement.
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
The Urbanist has the details on Seattle's possible MHA moratorium. Quoted electeds agree with the widely held belief that MHA is fine as long as it's calibrated. Nope! If it adds *any* cost, it will end up pushing average rents higher than they otherwise would be. Works like a dimmer, not a switch!
theurbanist.org
Builders Push for Temporary MHA Fee Break to Spur Housing Starts
A group of builders is urging Seattle to reduce Mandatory Housing Affordability fees for three years with the aim of kickstarting a sputtering homebuilding industry. They say 125 stalled projects enco...
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
But it says they'll be "world-class"
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Dan Bertolet @danbertolet.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Rather than fund affordable housing with a tax on homebuilding that undermines its own intent, Seattle would do better with a broad tax like property taxes, which it already does with the Housing Levy and through abatements (MFTE). It's time for Seattle to accept that all told, MHA is bad policy.
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