iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A new Carbon Brief analysis finds that at least 20,000km2 of Brazilian Amazon forest has remained standing since 2022 under Lula's presidency, an area roughly the size of New Jersey. www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-lu...

Analysis: Lula presidency saved at least 20,000km2 of Brazilian Amazon since 2022 — chart from Carbon Brief

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Climate change poses significant fiscal risks. Climate vulnerability puts sovereigns on the hook: countries with bigger climate exposure pay ~0.5–1.5pp more on government bonds and see downgrades unless markets are deep and politics stable. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

Not looking good. According to new NBER paper, climate costs are huge: a 1°C rise in global temperature cuts world GDP by >20% in the long run — far above prior estimates. The implied social cost of carbon of around $1200. www.nber.org/papers/w32450 #ClimateRisk #GDP #Macro

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

This RCT just published by the NBER! Owning energy stocks changes minds: exposure to both green & brown energy assets boosts public support for climate mitigation & adaptation — even among climate skeptics. www.nber.org/papers/w34828 #ClimatePolitics #Finance #Macro

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

Extreme weather isn’t just local pain — it cuts ~0.3% of OECD GDP annually via spillovers beyond disaster zones. Macro losses are bigger and more widespread than standard metrics show. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #ClimateRisk #Macro #GDP

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

Co-author Leopold Zessner-Spitzenberg and Martin Wolf with a new CEPR working paper: When private debt is high, aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation risk debt crises -- central banks may need a “backstop” approach, slowing hikes to stabilize both prices and credit. cepr.org/publications...

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

Interesting new NBER paper: Climate shocks are distributional shocks. Evidence from Cape Town’s near-“Day Zero” drought shows adaptation capacity differs sharply by income -- amplifying inequality. Climate policy is macro policy. www.nber.org/papers/w33468 #ClimateRisk #Macroeconomics

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

IMO, however, there is still a fundamental shortcoming which makes the user experience somewhat rigid. AI models are still horrible at finding a simple "follow" button on a screenshot and burn through tokens as if they were building a large-scale DSGE model. #openclaw #agenticai

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Agentic AI is moving fast. This weekend I set up OpenClaw -- "The AI that actually does things" developed by fellow Austrian 🦄 Peter Steinberger -- on an old phone. Talking to your personal AI assistant on Telegram while watching it execute tasks for you is IMPRESSIVE.

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Post-COVID US inflation wasn’t just “overheating.” This DSGE breakdown shows the 2021–22 spike was driven mainly by price mark-ups — firms pushing margins higher. Demand and policy mattered. But mark-ups did the damage. Paper: www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw... #Inflation #Macro

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

CBAMs aren’t just “green tariffs”—they can make carbon pricing more cost-effective. NBER reserach uses plant-level data + a global trade model for steel/aluminum: a CBAM can lower the marginal cost of abatement by reducing leakage. PDF: allanhsiao.com/files/CCHW_c...

Abatement rises with the carbon tax; adding a CBAM (solid vs dashed) reduces marginal abatement costs—i.e., more efficient emissions reductions for a given tax level.

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Great to see new research quantifying the social returns to infrastructure investment in EMDEs. The next step is to unpack these aggregate effects by sector — once we know who benefits and by how much, we can directly map those estimates into the OMEGA model. www.nber.org/202602/diges...

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Interesting proposal but it would require national treasuries to access a lot of information that other countries may not be willing to share.

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Reposted by Christian Schoder

Gabriel Zucman @gabrielzucman.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

To my Canadian and Mexican friends hit by the absurd Trump tariffs, I say: do this! You can fight back by hitting the US oligarchy 👇👇👇 www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

theguardian.com

Trump threatens a global trade war. Europe must unleash a radical alternative | Gabriel Zucman

Unlike tariffs, a new form of protectionism could target climate-wrecking, untaxed corporations and their billionaire owners

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

3. Firms in higher-income countries experience a greater negative impact on fixed asset growth due to temperature uncertainty. As income levels double, the negative impact of temperature uncertainty on fixed asset growth becomes more severe by 0.63 percentage points.

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

2. The impact is more severe in industries with high investment irreversibility, such as infrastructure.

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Key findings: 1. Higher temperature uncertainty leads to a decrease in firms' fixed asset growth. For every 1 degree increase in temperature uncertainty, firms' growth rate of fixed assets decreases by 0.77 percentage points.

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Our new #WorldBank research reveals a significant link between temperature uncertainty and reduced firm growth. Here's the link including the replication files.

openknowledge.worldbank.org

Open Knowledge Repository

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

Because moderates all over democratic world have no recipe against destructive social media dynamics.

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Interesting but how does the pseudo out of sample forecast look? High R² could be sign of over fitting

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Reposted by Christian Schoder

Brian Tyler Cohen @briantylercohen.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

When I say that the right is dominating the left on almost all platforms, this is what I mean. I hope Democratic officials take this into account every day. If you want an ecosystem that will advocate for YOU, then YOU need to help build it. Give interviews to creators, break news with creators...

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Reposted by Christian Schoder

Matt Pearce @mattdpearce.com · 18/11/2024

One of my unpopular opinions is that creators are dramatically more exposed to ugly market forces than the imperfect mass media they’re replacing, and we’re going to miss the anticommercial tendencies inside of legacy newsrooms once they’re finally gone. www.usermag.co/p/the-majori...

usermag.co

The majority of news influencers are conservative men, study finds

The latest Pew Research report on news content creators paints a damning picture of our skewed information ecosystem

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Right-wing propaganda on social media is extremely effective in creating an alternate reality

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

"40 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans surveyed said they’d become more conservative from their TikTok usage. Half of the Democrats surveyed said they’d grown more liberal"

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Social media isn't fully recognized as the key driver behind the rise of right-wing extremism across Western democracies.

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Christian Schoder @csecon.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Could the 538 team come over here pretty please

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