iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

You’re probably right. Just pointing out its casual use can come from people who know. Maybe I will go with “cancer cures”. I like that better.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I’m sure some people who use the term are not aware of that though.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

For the various treatments that might emerge for various types of cancers. I’ve used the term loosely, fully aware there will never be a single cancer cure.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Many people are just using it as shorthand.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

For anyone interested, here is the personal statement being discussed docs.google.com/document/d/e...

docs.google.com

Personal Statement on AI Risk

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

FWIW other staff at OpenAI say this guy is cracked

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

A personal statement from an OpenAI researcher who was never a doomer but has become much more concerned recently. docs.google.com/document/d/e...

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Wasn’t the concern mostly about Mythos, not Fable?

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

I'd like them to go further, but I think it is mostly sincere and most independent AI safety hawks seem pleasantly surprised. Even though you may be a non-expert, I'd recommend reading the essay yourself instead of relying on Ben, whose thread feels kind of emotional / unreliable.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

I don't see how this is incoherent. In the event that China doesn't participate, he is trying to make a within-democracies slowdown more palatable to policymakers.

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Reposted by Chris Said

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Both can be true at the same time: 1. AI progress is still exponential and people who dismissed it were wrong; disruptions will grow 2. 10-15% growth rates and/or extinction-level events* remain highly improbable To be clear, the harms could still be tremendous and we should try to prevent them!

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

AI will probably be normal technology but it’s also negative EV. AI is inevitable but we can still slow it down. You can hold these beliefs simultaneously.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Whether the victim here is also the perpetrator is interesting but to me less important than what this episode tells us, which is that these models are incredibly capable (I would say autonomous) and can subvert guardrails in creative and unexpected ways. Seems notable / potentially dangerous!

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

And to be clear, the robber in this analogy is the model itself. In the future it may be open source models that will wreak havoc by hacking and/or social engineering.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

“The problem is not that these models are going to act autonomously to hack, it’s that the guardrails are insufficient.” This is a false dichotomy! Both can be true. It’s like saying “the problem wasn’t the robber, it’s that the house didn’t have enough security”

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

That’s kind of my point. Even if you accept that what they did isn’t serious, they are _by the standards of other tech companies_ a serious company. Which should make you more worried, no less worried.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

I don’t think these claims are making the point you want them to make. OpenAI is a serious company by the standards of other companies. If you’re chalking this up to OpenAI incompetence (a pander to your audience btw) imagine the possibilities in less competent hands.

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Reposted by Chris Said

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I don’t really favor AI progress so if sand gets thrown in the gears of the hyperscalers that’s fine, but in practice a lot of the activism against data centers is activism against transmission lines and that has bad implications for wind and solar projects.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Yeah, I can see how your comment was half in jest. This is more directed at @gorskon.bsky.social and @jamellebouie.net ‘s comments.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Coming back to this one year later and vaccines are still broadly available. RFK is really bad, but also think about whatever thinking practices or media diets caused you all to expect such extreme outcomes! (This is friendly)

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Seems pretty clear he is just making a rhetorical distinction and expects his audience to not take it so literally.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

I'm very grateful to live in America. Happy 4th, everyone! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

FWIW I would personally value these regulations for my own behavior. (And also appreciate regulation on others so we can all benefit from the network effects).

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Sure, although this impulse to regulate comes up with anything addictive where people struggle with revealed preferences they’d like to keep at bay, see e.g. drugs and gambling.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

[New blog post] The one celebrity administrator you don’t hear much about is Dr. Oz, the peddler of dubious remedies who now heads the CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services). What ever happened to him? chris-said.io/2026/06/03/d...

chris-said.io

Dr. Oz as CMS Administrator: A review

A surprisingly competent turn from a peddler of dubious remedies

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

Who was saying misinformation was a moral panic? (Plenty of people were saying fact-checking wasn't very effective, but that's a different critique)

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

New blog post: You don't want luxury unemployment Supporters of AI say that the harms to well-being caused by AI-driven unemployment will be offset by material prosperity. None of the unemployment literature supports this. chris-said.io/2026/02/13/y...

chris-said.io

You don't want luxury unemployment

Unemployment causes a profound drop in life satisfaction and material prosperity doesn't matter

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

I mean ALL medical association studies.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Not to remove blame from Trump, but scientists need to pivot on these association studies. Either the publications come with caveats in bright orange warning labels, or they should stop being funded.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

Because the p-values are often wrong (e.g. errors are not clustered), or because they're not a good way to analyze funnel (it's ok if CTR goes down if impressions go up enough)? I hate them too btw

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

I also think centrist pundits have been able to move beyond their own preferences. For example, Yglesias and Shor have both said that economic left-populism could be a winner in many districts, even though it's not their personal preference.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 07/09/2025

I see. But is it not true that centrist pundits and regular voters were both pretty annoyed by wokeness?

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

Fair q on why the timing was delayed! Couple thoughts: 1. Many of the unpopular policies extended into 2023, e.g Covid restrictions and immigration. 2. It took time for a preference cascade to emerge (see Timur Kuran on this). Rightly or wrongly, swing voters felt liberated from wokeness in 2022.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

Yes, I mean strategic error. And to answer your question, I think some on Bluesky evade the possibility of admitting error by focusing on how their opposition (MAGA) is worse. They're right that MAGA is worse, but it's a mistake to not recognize their own strategic errors!

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

In 2016-2020, the Democrats staked out a some unpopular positions on crime, immigration, and cultural issues that repelled a lot of voters. While many Dems now believe those were strategic errors, many people on Bluesky (the "we" here) seem to deny any error here.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

If folate deficiencies really did cause autism, then you would expect to see a sharp drop in the autism-by-birth-year curve in 1997, when folic acid fortification was mandated. Instead, the curve continued its upward trend unabated. chris-said.io/2021/06/27/a...

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

But I do agree that _at some level_, all these tenets exist on the right. I just think they're not as strong.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

For smalltentism, the data I remember seeing was about willingness to stop speaking to a relative if they had different political opinions.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

The right is worse than the left in so many ways, but I see these particular tenets more on Bluesky. -Credentialism. The right doesn't have this as I understand the word. -Catastrophism. Mental health is much better on the right. -Smalltentism. Maybe. Saw some data saying otherwise, but can't find.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

FWIW many of these centrist pundits have said that economic left-populism can be viable in many districts, even though they themselves may disagree with it. The things they say are most important to moderate on are crime, immigration, and some culture war topics.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

> "Swing voters hate the things that annoy me" punditry is a cursed genre Maybe you've discussed this elsewhere, but in what sense is it cursed? I think it's useful to know about representation gaps between a party and the median voter, regardless of the messenger's own beliefs on the topic.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

I'd also add to that list binary thinking & failure to reflect. So many posts here are some form of "the opposition is worse, therefore we have done nothing wrong".

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Nate identifies three tenets of Blueskyism: Smalltent-ism, Credentialism, and Catastrophism. I wish he hadn't written it in such an antagonistic way, but I think he's right.

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Nate unfortunately uses some of the same style he criticizes Bluesky for, but I agree with overall point. People here don't realize how alienating this place is to normal voters. www.natesilver.net/p/what-is-bl...

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Chris Said @csaid.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

I wouldn’t look at time series in a dynamic system and making causal conclusions! You can make better causal claims if you look at which candidates overperform relative to expectations in their district (voter party distribution) and you can see clearly that the moderates do well.

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