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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Interesting! My original bbe pull didnt include distance so it'll take some time, but i'll let you know if it turns up anything cool

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

GIMP worked well enough fo me for free. Not sure how sophisticated a replacement you need

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Thanks so much! I actually do calibrate based on wOBA internally, but I calculated/displayed AVG/SLG in the article for the exact reason you stated (more digestible for folks). wOBA table below

table showing wOBA drift on barrels but not aBrl

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Haven't logged into bsky in ages, but @rosenjordanblum.bsky.social bullied me* into posting this here from the Rates & Barrels Discord *gently recommended

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

A barrel in 2025 is not the same as a barrel in 2016. I recalibrated barrels such that each season holds the outcome quality fixed (.813 AVG / 2.813 SLG). HR/aBrl SD drops from 5.71 to 0.90. @tangotiger.com wrote in 2018: "if someone wants to tweak [this] by all means." Finally took you up on it.

collinmyshot.shinyapps.io

Collinmyshot Fantasy Baseball

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

One thing I'm personally struggling with this year is that I don't know how to evaluate some of my bad teams. In one league, I spent a big chunk of auction capital on Yordan, Jared Jones, Schwellenbach, and Clase. Obviously that team sucked, but I don't know what to change for next year lol

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Example 2025 William Contreras: .260, 17 HR Carlos Narvaez: .241, 15 HR You might get lucky with a Cal Raleigh (ADP 86 in March) or a Hunter Goodman (ADP 318) but it's not worth chasing in the first 10 rounds

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

razzball.com/top-20-catch... @razzball.bsky.social wrote the definitive opinion piece on how to draft catcher in fantasy baseball 2 years ago imo Tldr: every catcher is gonna hit between .240 - .260 and 15-20 hr. The 300+ pick gap between the top and bottom catchers is dumb and don't get sucked in

razzball.com

Top 20 Catchers for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Top 20 Catchers for 2024 Fantasy Baseball and all the catchers' projections for every player with a breakdown of each, and sleepers.

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

If only my Michael Harris love was as rewarded haha

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

Using Savant overall PF (and I know there's more nuance to this than one number), the park move was MASSIVE BOS (104 PF, 2nd / 30) to SD (97 PF, 26th / 30) Is comparable to moving from CIN (103 PF, 3rd /30) to SF (97 PF, 29th / 30) It was a really dramatic shift in park

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

I can't find my receipts anywhere, but when he was unsigned in Feb I had "If Pivetta signs in SF he finishes top 5 in CY" as a bold prediction this year. BOS is so underrated as a crazy babip park. Literally the 2nd most friendly offensive PF per savant, more hitter friendly than GABP

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Yeah, 100%. You can be streaming SP like Lodolo and Eury a lot of the time too. And almost nobody has a bad team either, so it's often really competitive with lineups of absolute STUDs

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

10s are hard because the wire is so good. Like Heliot Ramos was not rosterable in 10s from July onward, but was 100% owner in every other format

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

20% K supported by SwStr and Stuff+. ERA estimators in the mid 4s. The upside here is Eflin. He should be nowhere near the top 40 imo

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

Luis Garcia Jr '24 JJ Bleday '24 Michael Harris '23 Dalton Varsho '22 Cedric Mullins '21 Austin Hays '21 Are some examples off the top of my head

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

There's a category of player who I've been burned by a lot the last couple years which is "bats who have a legitimately great season that is mostly supported by reasonable growth in underlying stats but with no prior track record of being above average" and I feel like those guys aren't good bets

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

If you expected the same number of PA in 2024 and 2025, you were almost spot on. 528 PA in 2024 vs 507 PA in 2025 with 6 games to go FG auction calc values 2025: 2B 20, +$1 2024: 2B 4, $12 Even accounting for a platoon split, it's a complete bust from a guy who made very believable improvements

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

This was me looking at Luis Garcia Jr this past off-season lol

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

To be clear, I agree with you that we have enough of a sample to not believe in the breakout coming. But I was just providing the case for why I've been in the last couple years and why I expect him to still be drafted as an upside sleeper type guy next year

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

And that tweak only took Pivetta, what, 6 years and going to a new team? So it'll happen for Pfaadt any day now I'm sure

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

Yeah, that would be the one problem with his game lol But that's the thing. He doesn't need to reinvent himself completely to be good. The velo and command agent problems. He just has to find a way to be even just ok against lefties. It's one tweak away.

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

I think the bullish case is his career stats vsRHB 217 IP 224 K 3.56 xFIP 19.8% K-BB That's probably a top 20ish SP most years. But I agree generally with what you're saying.

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

I think Pfaadt, Taj Bradley, and Nick Pivetta (in BOS) are all a similar category of dude. There's obvious potential to be a true fantasy difference maker but also clear flaws that need to be addressed before they can take that step

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 27/07/2025

On the broadcast they said Skenes is 13-0 in games where he received 3+ runs of support for his career. 14-0 after today

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 14/07/2025

Ah, thanks for the clarification. The other things I noticed is how weird it is having elite contact guys like Kwan and Arraez on the same side as high career K guys like Suwinski and Raley

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 14/07/2025

I think the more consistent swing paths may actually be harmful as it makes you easier to pitch to. Avoid pitching to the exact swing path and those hitters will struggle more to adjust

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 06/07/2025

The NLBM is one of the coolest baseball experiences I have ever had and this sucks

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 04/07/2025

Through July 3, Logan Webb has more strikeouts (127) than Hunter Brown (126) Dylan Cease (121) Paul Skenes (115) Chris Sale (114) Just like we all predicted

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 04/07/2025

The .194 slg to .445 xSLG also seems relevant to Jac generally lol

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 04/07/2025

If he qualified, he'd have the 6th worst o-swing among qualified hitters. Right next to Sal Perez, Yainer Diaz, Nick Castellanos. Streaky players, but all definitely major league caliber hitters. Any improvement there seems like it could unlock something serious

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 04/07/2025

Wow that aggression is incredible lol. I know your model is far more sophisticated than just o-swing and z-con, but being under 40% and nearly at 90% respectively seems like the aggression isn't necessarily a huge problem? In my mind, I've been comping him to Nick Castellanos

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 04/07/2025

Do you have one of these for Jac?

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

I imagine this was meant to read like "Have fun! We sure did!" But instead, I read it as Yoda "Have fun, we did"

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

This is going to get reposted the day the Giants pen blows a lead in an NLCS elimination game

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Maybe they should bench Bob Nutting for a lack of effort

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

There's other games than Chase Burns on right now!? 🤯🤯🤯

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

Some pretty high K guys in that list. Further filtering by either SwStr (under 14%) or z-con (over 80%) might help get rid of those 30%+ K dudes to find the true stud muffins

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

Also Javy Baez and Kyle Hendricks

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

Seems like an odd move tbh. Hicks' 3.68 xFIP is 31st in MLB among 80 qualified SP K% is the same as last year and BB% is actually improved To me, the .362 babip and 57% LOB look like he's just getting terminally unlucky and it'll balance out fine if they just let him pitch through

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 11/05/2025

I'm looking at Konnor Griffin and wondering if you think the pirates have similar issues at developing hitters. Feels like they haven't had a true hitting prospect pan out (other than Oneil Cruz) since cutch. And even ONC, it can be argued, isn't fully living up to his prospect hype

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

Numbers 3 and 5 on the 2024 top fastball velo by a SP list fwiw And Corbin Burnes' cutter averaged 97.0 last year per savant. Maybe being on this disqualifies you from having an A health grade...

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Awesome thread man. Bat speed on conine also up 1.5 mph. The SwStr is down to a career best, but also swing% is down significantly. Seems like he's being far more selective about his swings and just unloading on them

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

That seems like a problem for 6+ weeks from now. A lot can happen in 6 weeks. But same haha

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

20% K (9% SwStr) .370 ISO (lol) New career high max EV (111.0 mph) 70% Hard Hit (lol) Z-con ⬆️, o-swing ⬇️ .335 xBA (lol) And 2 SB! It's been a wild start. Some bits more sustainable than others, but he has been a monster so far this year

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

Ah, the heir to the Dairon Blanco throne

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Collinmyshot @collinmyshot.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

I was on the brieske train the moment Foley got sent down but it seems like the tigers aren't. Are we buying that they give Kahnle the big spoon role?

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