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Colin McKerracher

@colinmckerracher.bsky.social
3.2K followers 282 following 45 posts

I manage the Clean Transport & Energy Storage analyst teams at BloombergNEF. Posts about EVs, charging, batteries, clean fuels, aviation, shipping and more. Opinions are my own.

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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Always cumulative volume.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Exactly.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Some quotes in this great piece on how cars keep getting bigger, and what to do about it by @davidzipper.bsky.social slate.com/business/202...
slate.com
America is Exporting One of Its Worst Characteristics. It Has to Do With Cars.
There are ways to fight back.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
There will be battery manufacturing in Europe, including jobs, investment and all the good things that go with that. Most of the batteries will be made by incumbent manufacturers. That's ok. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Learning rate holding at 18%
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Evelina Stoikou @evelinastoikou.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
The results from BloombergNEF's 2024 lithium-ion battery price survey are out. Lithium-ion battery pack prices dropped 20% from 2023 to a record low of $115 per kilowatt-hour. This is the largest decline observed in our survey since 2017. 🧵⬇️
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Nat Bullard @nathanielbullard.com · 11/12/2024
The annual BloombergNEF battery survey is out. Quick hits: pack prices now $115 per kWh (and below $100 for cars in China) Almost 2/3 of China's EV models are priced lower than their internal combustion equivalents Great work @colinmckerracher.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
bloomberg.com
China’s Electric-Car Push Drives Global Battery Price Declines
Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg’s newsletter on the future of the auto world.
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Nat Bullard @nathanielbullard.com · 11/12/2024
Already compiled @colinmckerracher.bsky.social charts on the latest battery price index into a slide. Bravo to Colin and team www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Thanks Nat! Full credit goes to @evelinastoikou.bsky.social here.
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Evelina Stoikou @evelinastoikou.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
What's next? Metal prices may rise as geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and stalled mining projects impact supply. However, higher LFP adoption, technology advances and competition will push battery prices down. For more see our public press release here: shorturl.at/TcVUc
shorturl.at
Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices See Largest Drop Since 2017, Falling to $115 per Kilowatt-Hour: BloombergNEF | BloombergNEF
New York, December 10, 2024 – Battery prices saw their biggest annual drop since 2017. Lithium-ion battery pack prices dropped 20% from 2023 to a record
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Evelina Stoikou @evelinastoikou.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
EVs are still more expensive than comparable combustion cars in many markets, but broader access to cheaper batteries will close the gap. More on @colinmckerracher.bsky.social's piece on Bloomberg's Hyperdrive: shorturl.at/9AEFi
shorturl.at
China’s Electric-Car Push Drives Global Battery Price Declines
Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg’s newsletter on the future of the auto world.
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Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
The march of declining battery prices continues. Always read @colinmckerracher.bsky.social! www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet....
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Thanks Matthias. Yep, you're right, very different cars and different levels of tech in them. Still I think it's useful to point out just how extreme the pricing gap is because I don't think the electric version is opening up a totally new pool of buyers.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
I'm very fortunate to work on some of the most interesting topics in energy and transport. At BloombergNEF, our team of analysts is helping leading organizations navigate the transition to a low-carbon economy. www.bloomberg.com/professional...
bloomberg.com
Bloomberg Expert Access: Colin McKerracher on the future of clean transport and energy storage | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services
In this episode of Bloomberg Expert Access, Colin McKerracher, Head of Clean Transport and Energy Storage at BloombergNEF, discusses the future of the transport system and advancements in lithium-ion ...
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Good point. Looks like NYC is 239 traffic fatalities so far this year: www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/st... I think there's also a speed normalization effect that carries over to other places though. Since moving to a 30km neighborhood I find myself driving slower on highways too.
nyc.gov
Traffic Data - Fatalities - NYPD
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Global EV sales in October: Battery electrics: up 23% Plug-in hybrids: up 65% Combined market share in October: ~25% Ending the year strong
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
It's behind the BNEF paywall unfortunately, but clients can access it here: Cutting Car Use Lightens Load in Push for Net-Zero Fleet www.bnef.com/insights/34897 I'll try to get Jinghong on BlueSky to share more of her work!
bnef.com
Cutting Car Use Lightens Load in Push for Net-Zero Fleet
New technologies like electric drivetrains often hog the attention in the quest to decarbonize transportation. But reducing the use of passenger cars in favor of other modes of transport, such as publ...
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Definitely. What a terrible decision.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Chart is from a report from my colleague Jinghong Lyu about how policymakers are tackling car dependency around the world.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Underappreciated part of the reason why road deaths are so much higher in the US than Europe
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Cool page aggregating Canada EV adoption numbers from @nbrown14.bsky.social. Quebec is crushing it. github.com/NBrown140/tr...
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Jenny Chase @solarchase.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
A starter pack of my colleagues who are analysts at BloombergNEF. Batteries, electric vehicles, modelling, policy, energy economics, solar! Get your BNEF analysts on Bluesky here. go.bsky.app/SRQaZno
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
From the archives: OPEC's 2015 World Oil Outlook. It forecasts a total of 4.7 million battery electrics and 41 million plug-in hybrids on the road in 2040
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
The largest car market in the world, transformed in just 5 years. cnevpost.com/2024/12/03/c...
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Jaap Burger @jaapburger.eu · 29/11/2024
key quote: “Behavioral barriers to adoption are much less of an issue than originally thought. When the economics are good, people buy EVs in large numbers.”
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Great piece on Norway's EV journey from my colleague Kari Lundgren www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
bloomberg.com
This Is What the World’s First All-EV Car Market Looks Like
Norway is on the cusp of completing a transition away from combustion cars thanks to targeted incentives that made electrics an easy choice
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Michael Liebreich @mliebreich.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Fascinating. Secondary literature (and presumably press reporting and social media) have been over-estimating the contribution of tyre wear to air pollution. Good news (though all that tyre rubber must still end up somewhere in the environment). pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...
pubs.acs.org
Airborne Tire Wear Particles: A Critical Reanalysis of the Literature Reveals Emission Factors Lower than Expected
Tires are a ubiquitous part of on-road transport systems serving as the critical connecting component at the interface of the motive power and road surface. While tires are essential to automobile fun...
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Yep, pretty remarkable year. Full 2024 BNEF battery price survey results will be out in a few weeks. Prices were up in 2022 when we expected them to be down, so it's not all in the same direction. We'll see what happens with the next raw material price change.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
This is the very short version. Full version available to BNEF clients here: www.bnef.com/insights/33099
bnef.com
EVs and Clean Transport: 10 Things to Watch in 2024
At the beginning of each year, BloombergNEF’s transport team reflects on what has happened in the industry and gathers its thoughts on what to expect for the coming 12 months. These 10 things to watch...
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Almost time to revisit and score this. EV sales figure looking good, battery prices looking lower than expected. about.bnef.com/blog/evs-and...
about.bnef.com
EVs and Clean Transport: 10 Things to Watch in 2024 | BloombergNEF
These 10 things to watch are a snapshot of what we think will be some of the most noteworthy developments in 2024.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Who is winning and losing in China's quickly electrifying vehicle market? VW, Honda, Nissan all in real trouble. Toyota holding for now but watch next year. Great piece from the Bloomberg News team www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
First chart is all road transport, second is just passenger vehicles.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Here's the km breakdown Lots more cool charts on Robbie's page: robbieandrew.github.io/EV/
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Norway's road transport energy use is now highlighting a really important effect: primary energy consumption falling even while people travel more. Why? Because electrification is energy efficiency. Chart by @robbieandrew.bsky.social
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Yes, non-pluggable hybrids are including under ICE.
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Nat Bullard @nathanielbullard.com · 25/11/2024
One of my favorite @colinmckerracher.bsky.social charts and it was a treat to be there - present at the creation - when he published the first version.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Consumers seem to be losing interesting in the technology.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Sales Of Combustion Vehicles Are Slowing/Falling/Faltering
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
More here from my colleague Ryan Fisher www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
bloomberg.com
California Boosts EV Charging Sector at the Expense of Biofuels
Updates to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard could fund 40% of state’s charging needs.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard is getting a big change that will significantly boost EV charging. The updated program will provide $500 million to $1.4 billion to the charging sector per year, based on today’s credit prices.
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Joe Homsy @joehomsy.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
ZEVs leap to 16.5 per cent market share in Q3 2024: S&P Global electricautonomy.ca/data-tracker...
electricautonomy.ca
ZEVs leap to 16.5 per cent market share in Q3 2024: S&P Global
S&P Global's Q3 2024 numbers mark an all-time high for the Canadian EV sector with 1 in every 6 vehicles sold in Canada now a ZEV
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Chart from my colleague Andrew Grant. You can find more of his reflections on shared mobility here: www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
bloomberg.com
A Decade Into the Digitialization of Mobility, Winners and Losers Emerge
Some forms of mobility services are now fully entrenched in cities. Others haven’t lived up to the hype.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Use of shared bikes and scooters is still trending upwards in the US. A big thank you to everyone out there working on making streets safer for these types of options.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Thanks Jesse!
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Hydrogen can still play a role in decarbonizing passenger cars by using it to make green steel, helping cut production emissions.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Thanks! took a while to make the jump, but glad I did.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
BNEF has stopped including hydrogen FCVs in the passenger segment in our long term outlooks. We will revisit this when/if they reach 0.1% of global vehicle sales.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Another way to think of this: If the global fleet of passenger fuel cell vehicles were to double every three years (which is not happening) from now to 2040, they would hit....0.3%of the global fleet.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
South Korea is the one market holding on to the dream through very generous subsidies for the cars, stations and fuel. 78% of global passenger FCVs in Q2 2024 were in South Korea.
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Colin McKerracher @colinmckerracher.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
I hereby declare the latest round of hype for hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles over. I'm sure this will come up again around ~2030. With similar results.
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