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cnm.bsky.social

@cnm.bsky.social
368 followers 375 following 3.4K posts
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 13h
Indies being Red by +21 when they are Blue by +23 in national polls isn’t that believable!
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Or, and hear me out, prominent and popular Long Island resident Chris cuomo
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
It’s the assemblymen and senators that are the impediment...
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
She started her term terribly, spent all her political capital trying to get a judge appointed and botched congestion pricing. She could have spent that capital on getting her housing bill passed. Since then she’s been good.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
She even has a better example that she should have lead with.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Although that is how politics is in Maine where the reason she has such strong support is she gets pork for the state. Though this particular example was pretty weak tea.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Also like that's a banal observation?
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This is why I don't worry to much about Collins. People are getting their first fill in the week before the election and 35%+ of maine heats with oil...
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I’m a grizzled veteran
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I've been telling myself every year since 2006 not to pay attention to the poller coaster but I'm an addict.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
That's why I think saying Generation Led will die off and 2034 will be a worst case PVI R+4.8 is a fools errand. The base case is thermostatic backlash, with a lot of uncertainty sprinkled in.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
2022 was sufficient to lose the house, and led to a disaster in 2024. Anti-incumbency currently rules the world. That's the base case, but again there could be a world war, or economic calamity or we could discover stable fusion or a multitude of unknowns.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The most likely outcome of 2030 is a thermostatic backlash against the party in power, but 4 years is a long time away.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
If there’s anything you should be certain of it’s that there is no certainty in the future and making predictions about 2030 and beyond is a fools errand.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
vicious MI primary too with immediate reconciliation...
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
do you go same arm or different arms? I did different arms this time and it was a mistake, both really hurt. I feel like they would overlap not be additive if I do them in same arm next year.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
you need N=800 to get 3.5 and n=1000 to get 3.1. Those are large samples and rarely seen, and again, you need to double them as the moe applies in both direction to both candidates.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
yes you have, you just were misinterpreting what a margin of error is. A standard n=400 sample with have sampling error +/-4.9% and applies to both candidates share.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Hmm, did you know susan collins is mandating you have to send me $100?
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Is this your first time reading a political poll?
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Nate's maine poll had indys 22 points to the right of the polling he released today which just doesn't seem plausible to me when home heating oil is $6/gal.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
thats what I think he'll do, yeah
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
They're both fake -- that one was too red and this one is a shade too blue
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Two of them just gave on the record quotes to the Press Herald (though one of them said she's voting Jackson)!
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Also we know there are a lot of old dumb shit women who love susan collins and who call themselves dems.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
That's fine, and I have the same expectation. I'm merely suggesting that a single data point (2020 election composition from an exit poll) is sufficient to draw an inference about this election's gender composition.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
While I agree that the electorate is likely to be closer to D+9 in Maine, not every wave lands evenly and like it or not Collins has a strong brand.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
All I'm saying is you are speaking with a certitude on what the gender composition of the electorate will be that isn't supported by available data. The electorate may be 59-41, it may not be, and the only data point on electorate gender composition that I can find is one exit poll from one year.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I'd just be a little hesitant to be certain that the partisan breakdown of Maine was going to be exactly 2020, an odd election, and that figure based on a single exit poll -- noisy in and of itself.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
What is the gender split based on? What was 2018/2022/2024?
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
google behind grok is extremely embarrassing. I wonder if/how they are measuring openrouter/fireworks etc.... which is where I expect many enterprises are getting their open weight tokens.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
With extremely declining marginal utility!
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Jay I’m sorry your mariners lost but you don’t need to inflict this evil on us
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I think probably 750kw chargers that can add 200 miles to most cars in 10 minutes is fine.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Arent we supposed to also dive into crosstabs and critique sub samples with 15 point error bars?
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
reminder its a Dem internal...
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
If I get a sample that is 53/47 F and I expect to get a sample that is 57/43 F, I may down weight M responses by a multiplier. What that multiplier is, is basically never shared, it's just shared that the sample is weighted by gender.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
They indicate the demographics they weight on but not the individual values assigned to those weights.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Almost no private survey is releasing their weights. They generally have boilerplate that says there was a sample and it was weighted by age/education/gender, etc.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I think you're missing a bit of information. We know what they sample pulled. We do not know how they weighted the sample, and you can't make that inference.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
That's what their sample was, not how they weighted it, no?
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
do you have the weights they used?
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
except the 50+ break for collins...
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
didn't bonier do this kind of early vote/enthusiasm analysis in '24 and get it completely wrong?
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Yes, I agree.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
It's bad for people who don't have a clawlike and are trying to reach support, and it's bad for support people, and it's bad for a future where we'd like to be able to interact with a human. It could be a forcing function for better support.
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
It’s @admcrlsn.bsky.social ’s firm. He only comes here to beg for donations and then goes back to the nazi site for the only true discourse Tm
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Thanks
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Your the 2024 numbers are with the new district lines?
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cnm.bsky.social @cnm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
So its not quite apples to apples comparison?
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