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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

Four days before Typhoon Ragasa’s rainbands hit Taiwan, the 3.75-km MPAS predicted >36" of rain in the mountains—while the 15-km parallel run only showed up to 24". By better resolving Taiwan’s terrain and upslope rainfall, the high-res run shows the value of higher resolution in complex terrain.

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

18-Sep 00Z MPAS forecast has a major typhoon aiming at the Luzon Strait in three days. This system hasn't even formed yet, so we'll see. 👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo... Variable: Infrared Brightness Temp, Domain: Invest 90 (WP90)

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

Today's tidbit from @ncar-ucar.bsky.social's experimental 3.75-km MPAS forecasts: An active train of African easterly waves. - a squall line over western Africa - a tropical storm near 30°W - another less well defined tropical system near 45°W 👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo...

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

While a Mesoscale Convective System did form this evening over the Colorado plains (left), the MPAS forecast had it farther north than observed (right)

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

Today's #MPAS forecast has two cyclones in the eastern Pacific that appear to be locked in a Fujiwara-like fashion. 👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo... variable: 10-m Winds, domain: EPAC (zoom), forecast hour 120

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

One advantage of high-resolution global models is their ability to resolve topography and its influence on weather. In this 5-day accumulated rainfall forecast for Puerto Rico, the model predicts little to no rain along the southern coast but more than 200 mm (8 inches) in the northwestern interior.

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

MPAS brings Hurricane Kiko close to Hawaii (as a 45-kt tropical storm) in ~4 days creating some interesting topographical flow features 👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo... Variable: 10-m Winds, Domain: Hawaii

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

🌍 The MMM lab at @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is running experimental realtime forecasts with a global 3.75-km MPAS model. Goal: Highlight the power of global km-scale models for weather prediction from local to planetary scales, incl. tropical cyclones. 👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo...

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Trade wind cumulus at work, transporting moisture from the boundary layer into the free troposphere

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

The downslope flow drove temperatures into the mid to upper 60s (~18C) on the eastern slopes with little humidity. There’s still some snow cover over Colorado the high plains, which creates some local cold patches.

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

Down near the surface, there was a lee trough east of the front range, which helped to drive downslope flow.

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

In the upper levels, there’s a ridge over Colorado, westerly flow, and an upstream a trough over the Pacific. This set up brings in some upper level moisture which often produced wave clouds, which we had today (though the clouds broke over Boulder).

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

A beautiful mild late autumn day by Boulder creek. So, what’s going on meteorologically? #cowx

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 22/10/2024

Flying is such a privilege. I can spend hours 👀 all the landmarks and the weather from above… (1) Golden, CO and its table mountains (2) Berthoud Pass (3) Rocky🏔️ after the first ❄️, barren South Park in the background (Copper ⛷️ peaks out, too) (4) Fog moving into dry hills near San Francisco

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