iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 5h

They had to move the y axis The El Niño chart topped out at 30C. The 2026 line went through the top and they extended the axis to 31. Warmest water ever measured there, and it does not peak until December. Wet California, dry Australia, probably the warmest year on record in 2027.

0112

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

High tide flooding on the U.S. coast happens three times as often as it did in 2000. The tide did not change. The ocean came up. El Niño is about to add a decade's worth of sea level in a few months. That part goes back. The rest does not.

085

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

yellowschwinn.bsky.social @yellowschwinn.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨

032

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Drunkweather @drunkweather.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

🔥🔥🔥

011

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Sarah Höfler @aquageo.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

This is completely nuts... Do you remember the frogs in the boiling water? Hello fellow frogs 😵‍💫

0165

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Charlotte @fireantprincess.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I love having knowledge of the behavior of chaotic complex systems because every time I look at a climate change plot like this it’s like staring into the abyss and the abyss is staring back at me

2111

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The 2026 line ran off the top of the Niño 3.4 chart, so Climate Reanalyzer had to raise the ceiling from 30°C to 31°C. Ocean temps in the heart of this El Niño are running about 3°C above the early October average and higher than any other year on record for this time of year.

02422

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Downtown LA has hit 90 degrees 49 times this year, the most in 150 years of records. LA sits 15 miles from the ocean. The marine layer is supposed to shut the heat down at night, and the water is now too warm to do it.

0227

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

About 6 inches of the water that flooded Sag Harbor last weekend was there because of us. 102 flood readings from South Carolina to Massachusetts. At 32 of them the water never would have reached flood stage without climate change.

092

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Lincoln, Nebraska picked up 6.15" yesterday and broke a daily rainfall record that had stood since 1910. The heaviest 1% of rain events in the Midwest are already up 45% since 1958. That record didn't fall because of bad luck.

062

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

El Niño is natural. Nobody made it happen, the climate change is in increasing the starting point. But that water is just under 30°C, warmer than any day in 20 years of this record, and it set that mark in September. El Niño doesn't peak until November or December. Two months left to run.

083

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Two more high tide cycles of minor flooding ahead, however, conditions are quickly improving. 16th highest water level recorded in Montauk, New York. It’s important to realize we have seen nearly a foot of sea level rise since 1940 and that rate is accelerating.

082

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The evening high tide cycle, causing minor coastal flooding in Sag Harbor, New York. The morning high tide Sunday looks to rival what we saw Saturday. Wind and rain slowly begin to wind down tonight. The ocean warmth this storm is sitting over is made 40X more likely because of climate change.

1131

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

A bit windy, but you can still hear me! (Kind of!) This Nor’easter is reaching its peak. Moderate to major coast of flooding & 60 mph gusts. We’ve also seen 11 inches of sea level rise since the 1940s, six of those inches have happened since 1990. This helps water reach farther inland.

192

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I enjoyed this CBC interview for the What On Earth podcast with @johannawagstaffe.bsky.social, which also includes @climatechris.bsky.social. Recorded in New York during Climate Week. You can get through my [pretty introspective] part in the 1st six minutes. www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...

cbc.ca

0146

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

60 mph wind gusts, moderate to major coastal flooding and beach erosion. The sand behind me was pumped in less than 18 months ago. The 2025 project put more than 1.35 million cubic yards along these 5.6 miles, and the dredging contract alone was about $19.6 million.

052

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Joined CNN to talk about the Nor’easter: Moderate to major coastal flooding 60 mph gusts 2-4” of rain 20-25’ waves & significant erosion 1’ of sea level rise since 1940s, 6” since the early 90s. Thanks to climate change that water reaches farther inland.

082

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Polo hit 892 mb off Mexico, second strongest hurricane ever recorded in the East Pacific, after going tropical storm to Cat 5 in 33 hours, the fastest on record there. Nolo is about to give Hawaii its third hurricane of the season, with 20-30" of rain forecast for the Big Island.

087

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

El Niño just passed the +3.02C Niño 3.4 record set Nov. 18, 2015, two months early. These waters normally cool through summer. 2026 kept climbing. El Niño is natural. The ocean under it was heated by coal, oil and gas, and ~0.65C of the peak reading is expected to be that warming.

03120

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

RFK Jr. says HHS is investigating chemtrails. The annoying part: contrails really do warm the planet. Contrail cirrus is aviation's biggest climate impact, ~3x the forcing of all the CO2 aviation has emitted. It's published. Airlines reroute around it. None of it is secret.

030

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Monarch chrysalis in my front yard. In two weeks it flies 2,000+ miles to a mountain in Mexico it's never seen. Every eastern monarch winters in ~7 acres of oyamel fir. A single freeze in 2002 killed an estimated 500 million of them. Suitable climate for those firs: down 50% by 2030.

191

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Mike Johnson says AOC claimed we'd all be dead in 10 years. It was 12 years, January 2019. The number traces to the IPCC report 3 months earlier: cut CO2 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 to hold 1.5C. A deadline, not a body count. Extreme heat already kills ~546,000 people a year.

0101

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

EPA did two things Monday. Finalized the repeal of the 2024 rule requiring 90% carbon capture at coal and gas plants. Then proposed a finding that power plant greenhouse gases don't cause or contribute to dangerous air pollution.

11210

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

13 water rescues Sunday morning. Stamford: 7.45 inches of rain. Norwalk to Westport: 3 to 4 inches an hour. No named storm. Just slow moving storms sitting over the same towns. Rain on the Northeast's heaviest days is up almost 60% since 1958.

1103

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Puerto Rico is rationing water for homes and farms, and had 300+ brush fires in July. New attribution study: human caused warming cut the island's early wet season rain ~9%. A year ago, 0% of the island was in drought. Today it's 75%, with 41% in extreme drought.

045

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

LA heat index headed past 110 today. Hottest hour ever at LAX: 109 in 1963, humidity 16%, and it felt cooler than the air temperature. Last month LAX hit an 84 degree day with a 73 dew point, its highest in 88 years. The heat isn't new, the moisture is.

071

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Neither storm made landfall. Lowell passed west of Niihau. Marie stayed hundreds of miles off California. 90% of Kauai County lost power Monday. About 20 homes evacuated in Long Beach. The water is already higher & that allows it to move farther inland. Climate change is the threat multiplier.

13312

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Sarah T. Fischell @sfischell.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

This is excellent climate communications imho.

164

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

LSkyWalter @lskywalter.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Climate change is the threat multiplier. That hits heavy.

021

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Joanne @joannefirth.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

An important update on Hurricaine Lowell and its connection to climate change. Hawaii Thanks Chris!

0192

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

🇨🇦 Dave210 🇨🇦 @dave210.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Great description of climate change as a threat multiplier

032

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Lowell passes about 100 miles west of Hawaii tonight. Hurricane warning for Kauai and Niihau, statewide emergency, up to 10 inches of rain in the forecast. Same week, LA got its first measurable rain in months, in September, off Marie from 770 miles out. Climate change is the threat multiplier.

313872

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Blatten, Switzerland: 20 million tons of rock and ice hit the village. Nepal: a glacier fell 1,200 meters, no warning. Climate change was the threat multiplier in both. Only one country could afford a warning system. Free, paid support helps: chrisgloninger.substack.com/p/the-ice-wa...

chrisgloninger.substack.com

The Ice Was Holding the Mountain Up

We keep talking about glaciers as water towers. In steep terrain they are also load-bearing walls, and the strength of the joints holding the rock together drops 17 percent for every degree of warming

270

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Peat fires burn underground. Surface water barely touches them. Indonesia now: Malaysia air quality emergency, smoke to Manila, ~50,000 respiratory infection cases Jul–Aug. ~90% of the country got little to no rain in early August.

11915

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Peter Louwe @peterlouwe.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Whistler mountain suffered a significant slide last March because of this. The slope was well above the glacier.

043

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Clonal Antibody 🌹 @clonalantibody.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Normally, at that height, there would be monsoon snowfall, and not rain. If the temperatures had warmed enough for liquid water to have precipitated in the weeks prior, that may have been sufficient to weaken the permafrost holding the rocks together, leading to the collapse.

021

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Sean Sublette @subletteweather.com · 04/09/2026

From my friend @climatechris.bsky.social: "A glacier’s weight braces the slope it sits against, and permafrost joins the fractured rocks above it. When you lose both the permafrost and the glacier, the mountain loses its structural support."

chrisgloninger.substack.com

The Ice Was Holding the Mountain Up

26124

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

UNEP's Limiting Overshoot, published 2 Sep: we cross 1.5 within a few years, best case peaks ~1.8, framing shifts to overshoot–peak–decline. For scale: LGM global average was ~6°C colder. Laurentide margin ran through Chicago, St. Louis, Long Island, Cape Cod. Sea level ~120 m lower.

030

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Milwaukee Public Schools cancelled day two of the school year for heat. 66,000 students. ~25% of classrooms have AC. Wisconsin's own heat vulnerability index couldn't include air conditioning as a variable. The data didn't exist. 91% students of color. 83% economically disadvantaged.

0126

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Reality Ausetkmt @ausetkmt.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

These are conditions for some very bad outcomes

041

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Season ACE ~11% of normal. Five storms, no hurricanes, El Niño shear. Also true: Gulf SST is the warmest on record for the date, and NHC issued a hurricane watch on Edouard citing very warm water and low shear. RI probability (TS → major in 24h): 3% in 1971-90 → 8% in 2001-20. Garner 2023.

0131

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

NOAA publishes the official summer number around Sept 9. June ran 2.2F above average, July was the hottest month ever measured in the Lower 48, and my read of 795 stations puts August near 2.8F above. That would edge past 2021 for the hottest US summer on record.

020

Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

~35,000 excess deaths from heat in Europe this summer, and that only covers about half the continent and stops before August. Loire: bank to bank in March, threads between sandbars in August. Rhine at Cologne: ~74 cm. Romania: blasting rock out of the Danube to keep Cernavoda cool.

172

Reposted by Chris Gloninger

Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

We've got Tropical Depression 5 off the coast of Louisiana as of 2 pm EDT, expected to hit near the TX/LA border as Tropical Storm Edouard on Tuesday. Also in this post, I detail the deadly flash flood in the Grand Canyon last Saturday. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/08/texa...

yaleclimateconnections.org

Texas and Louisiana could get hit by a fast-spin-up tropical storm on Tuesday » Yale Climate Connections

The system looming over toasty water just offshore on Monday was small but potentially potent.

04618