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Claire Hartnell

@cjhartnell.bsky.social
896 followers 347 following 2K posts

Mostly systems thinking, complexity & frustration. Finally scratching an itch with my MSc in Human Evolution at UCL. Substack: clairejhartnell.substack.com

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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Hanton’s book is amazing. The Productive State paper is an extremely hopeful development🙏🙏
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
100%. Doesn’t talk about current account problem / trade etc; But these people are smart. There’s only so much you can cover in one paper. I’m extremely encouraged that Andy Haldane is advising. The paper references end of dollar hegemony. Agree re tech: sovereign AI, EU collab on digital infra etc;
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Not a chance👇 Burnham needs to call an election asap & implement The Productive State. He can be Labour’s Thatcher & free us from her legacy.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Well the future is looking extremely good at last. The Productive State paper, Haldane, Milliband. This administration is going to be *full* of ideas. All those involved have thought long & hard about the problems: energy deficit, privatisation, central bank market backstop, blunt inflation targets.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Burnham is going to be a Leftist Thatcher. Britain is about to undergo a revolution & it’s wonderful. The Productive State: actionnetwork.org/user_files/u... is just *full* of ideas. Keynes inspired, radical, grounded. Haldane advising too. Just brilliant. Burnham needs to call an election asap.
actionnetwork.org
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
They do. Read the paper Mainstream just published. actionnetwork.org/user_files/u... Keynes is back. They have so many ideas & most importantly they’re systemic, not just knee jerk reactions to problems. Haldane involved too. I feel surging optimism for our country again.
actionnetwork.org
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
👇This paper is the future of Britain - read it & hope again! We need 10 years of this. Burnham should take the risk & call an election👇
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
HOPE AT LAST! This paper is brilliant. Keynes, Polanyi, Christophers, Mamdani, Splintering Urbanism - it’s all there. Supply/demand inflation targetting? Just brilliant. Brilliant. I’m sure Haldane will be all over capital inflows & reserve tap for markets. Current acct still a problem but HOPE!
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
… loses. But does it? It could easily do the same thing with nested state currencies & benevolent relations with South America. Spheres of influence. Europe/Russia. China/BRI. North/South America. Global South recipients of surplus with capital controls. Win win win.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Everyone wins btw - finance gets low tax low regulation but skin in the game. Domestic economies get high wages, green transition, redistribution without wealth taxes. The EU solves its sovereignty problem. UK solves its finance problem. The West solves its innovation problem. Only the US …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
… finance for big, risky projects. The whole world changes. Re-organises into global powers with nested domestic economies with their own currencies & SWF as genuine store of productive value. Seriously, I thought the whole thing through a year ago.: clairejhartnell.substack.com/p/7-project-...
clairejhartnell.substack.com
7. Project 2029
I have spent the last 6 essays building up my case to explain why I think the global system has taken the wrong path.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
.. SWFs. You can still have global finance. Sure - but self supporting with reserves which are taxed. No LLR. Use it or lose it. Disconnected from domestic economies. A pure global capital fund. No gov deposit guarantee, no repo market or LLR. Retail banks for domestic economy. Global …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
… *behind* the reserve layer. This way Britain can keep the £ & sit behind the EUro. The £ trades within the bloc but all the sub currencies are protected by the reserve. Like a pluripolar Bancor - euro, ££, renminbi etc with domestic nested regions each with production focussed …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
… bubbles. Firewall between global flows (City) & domestic economy. Using £ as a trade / Bancor like firewall. Or - if the EU could sort themselves out, the Euro as reserve currency for the bloc. BUT domestic currencies reintroduced. But non tradable globally. So currencies can devalue …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
… capitalised with eg. changes to pension rules or QE. Bond debt paid off through time with demurrage micro tax (invisible) through the digital currency. City of London stays. Low tax. Low reg. BUT no LLR. Must self regulate. Retail banks split away. BoE monitors credit flows. Dampens …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
I thought it through. All of it. £ has to act as reserve currency with non tradable digital currency contained beneath it. Cybernetic capital controls to manage inflows & outflows BOP - Ilene Grabel shows IMF will accept this. A SWF as a recursive set of nested local>regional>national funds …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
if you have a chance, start reading / watching @thunen.bsky.social. He's just written a brilliant piece for @phenomenalworld.bsky.social which made me seek out other content. Great 2025 podcast here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tVm... Not just outstanding scholarship, this guy is very funny too👇
youtube.com
Signs of the Times #7 - Empire, Trump, US dollar, and American decay, with Herman Mark Schwartz
YouTube video by Sage4Age
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
I just went and listened to a 2025 interview he gave. This guy is brilliant. Understands the monetary system, understands global capital flows, understands infrastructure power. Just brilliant. Also, extremely dry wit:)
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Phenomenal World is brilliant. If you want yawn debates about migration & Brexit then it won’t be for you. But if you want to understand the deep global patterns that lead to populism / Brexit / tariffs / currency collapse then dig in…
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
I mean the whole article is arguing that this is far too simplistic. That debt can be better conceptualised as a public good put to work for productive outcomes. Sometimes debt cancellation is appropriate but not as an axiomatic position.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Yes. I think this is true. He proposes a continuation of the neoliberal finance driven economy. That said, at least it is a strategy. The point is that the Left has no strategy. I’m hoping Burnham might have given early soundings. They must understand capital flows & BOP to have a chance.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
So you agree?
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Astonishing naivety asking which European country might ‘indict Trump’ for war crimes. As if this were in any way conceivable. No European country would do this because 1. they’d be sanctioned meaning 2. no access to SWIFT 3. Reserves appropriated 4. Coup. www.theguardian.com/law/2026/feb...
theguardian.com
Credit cards cancelled, Google accounts closed: ICC judges on life under Trump sanctions
Kimberly Prost and Luz del Carmen Ibáñez Carranza vow US reprisals will not affect work of international criminal court
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Would you give up the £? Do you understand that the entire British economy is based on using the £ as a reserve currency that can absorb global surplus? No £, no City, no service industry. Why do you think they wanted out of Europe in the first place?
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Ah! Well since you asked, this is what I’d do: clairejhartnell.substack.com/p/7-project-...
clairejhartnell.substack.com
7. Project 2029
I have spent the last 6 essays building up my case to explain why I think the global system has taken the wrong path.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… and with *radical* and unbending focus on rebuilding Britain we will then have the strength to resist the tech assault, rejoin the EU with strength, influence US policy & avoid the slow trend towards fascism. I can’t stand Blair but his point is that we must face the world as it is.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… we are fiscally constrained, geopolitically weak, lack sovereign defence & energy & face a fragmenting world, adrift. So the sequencing is: lower cost of living, get energy costs down, relentless focus on rebuilding (Blair is happy with neoliberalism, I advocate rebuilding green public commons) …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
I think the important thing is to understood the points in context. In isolation, yes - we should not support US wars, we should hasten green transition, we should be back in the EU & we should try to limit encroachment by tech fascists. But as a system we can see it all differently …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
We are 5th by GDP? Do you not see the inevitable conclusion to be drawn from your own datapoint?
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… reintroduced national currencies. That offers economic sovereignty to nations while protecting them from global flows with a reserve currency & central bank. Britain could be at the heart of such a system with the £ sitting either alongside or underneath the Euro.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Do you remember Michel Barnier’s staircase? We are now below the bottom rung. We should certainly be back in the EU, as close as possible, but we cannot go as supplicant. My own view is that the only way the EU can solve its own problems is to become a reserve currency that sits above …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
We are not the same country we were under Wilson. You have missed my point that we had a falling currency & sufficient industry to defend ourselves (mostly). We are now an industry lite country with no sovereign defence capability & a reserve like currency. That was a choice. It has consequences.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… into the EU & into a subsidiary role with the US. It’s really no good saying: we never supported US wars. We didn’t support them because we could stand alone. Now we are a European version of Dubai / Singapore. A light touch hub for capital with no industrial defence capacity. Choices were made.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
True. But Wilson’s world was one of Sterling crises & end of empire. Britain had the trappings of sovereignty but a falling currency. Thatcher then Blair resolved this by trading sovereignty (defence, industry) for currency survival (deregulation, absorption of foreign capital). This pushed us …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… deregulation, business friendliness etc etc This will not reduce our debt. It will see more of Britain’s capital stock in the hands of foreign investors. This, we must *stop*. End
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… his comments about the EU & Trump. He’s right that we still need the US & that we cannot rejoin the EU from a position of weakness. He is right that we need to embrace AI & build relations with China. But he is wrong (& living in the past) to think the solution is (yawns then frowns): low taxes …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… that forces pension wealth into a sovereign wealth fund rebuilding public goods (cheap green housing, energy, transport), using AI extensively (agree with him here) & putting controls on endless imports of high carbon goods & surplus capital. Unfortunately, all the focus will be on …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… high energy cost, capital inflows, is a *disaster*. So for me, Blair’s essay is quite helpful. We do need a leader who will chart a difficult path & ignore the damn commentariat. But the path to take is not one of more finance, more asset manager sales, more de-industrialisation. It is a path …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… but we also need to abandon stupid protectionism with China & accelerate imports of carbon reducing technology & produce. Since imports are a zero sum game, we need to slap taxes on high carbon imports. Rebasing our economy this way gives us a chance. Continuing as is - imports, debt …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… Unlike Israel, another US proto colony, Britain lacks military & economic sovereignty. Once the $$ ceases to be the global trade currency, we will be cut adrift. So Britain *urgently* needs to rebuild public goods & domestic digital infrastructure. We need very strong ties into Europe & the US …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… 80% of Britain’s population in low wage, consumption driven jobs. Where he lacks any clear analysis is how we deal with the fiscal crisis of ever higher debt & declining industry. We cannot continue as a European outpost for finance. The world is moving East. The $$ system is in decline …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… drifting in the wind of the daily media opinion polls & set a damn course into the storm. What is lacking in his paper is any structural diagnosis of how we escape Britain’s trap: persistent trade deficit, finance curse, progressive sale of state to asset managers, peripheralisation of …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
… brutal world, we don’t have the luxury of disengaging from the US or charging the British public for net zero. We must grab what’s available & embrace AI - like it or not. Rejoining the EU as supplicants is foolish. I agree with 90% of this. I also agree 💯% that politicians must *stop* …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Finally read it. It’s much more sensible than presented. He’s expressing the following: Britain has lost influence, soft power & political identity. We are financially constrained & adrift. Policies to repair the state appear to focus on soft left virtue signalling rather than growth. In a …
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
That was great - thanks for posting:)
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
The difference (possibly the advantage) is that Britain is no longer aligned with Europe. We may have more levers we can pull in time to avoid the fascist escalation. Britain has done so many times in the past (Poor laws; Corn laws; enfranchisement; trades unions etc;). But time is running out.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
The thing to remember is that Blair is happy for the UK to be a safety deposit box for capital. That was the New Labour strategy & due to low(ish) debt in the 90s, we could sustain this policy, service the interest & still have money left over for benefits & wagefare. That world ended in 2008.
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Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Gareth Dennis @garethdennis.uk · 27/05/2026
With Palantir embedded with Network Rail and now with SpaceX being positioned as the primary train WiFi provider, we must ask the question: how much control is the US tech industry going to get over our railways?
BBC news article headlined "Better WiFi for hundreds of trains under government plans"
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
It’ll be about ‘derisking’ projects for asset managers. More greenfield, subsidised, zero risk projects for finance where profits will be offshored & taxpayers will pick up costs when it fails, without gaining equity. Thatcher sold off our companies, Blair let in finance, this era sells the future.
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Claire Hartnell @cjhartnell.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Student loans are written off after 40 years. They will be in their 60s? Are you honestly suggesting that they can start saving for retirement in their 60s? I find it strange since you’re obviously intelligent but don’t seem to see the compositional changes in income between our youth & today.
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