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Reposted by Christabel Cooper

How can we revitalise post-industrial towns and fight the far right? A new academic paper from UC Berkley shows how the development of Luxembourg as a financial centre also boosted the economy and reduced the vote share for the National Rally in nearby ex-manufacturing towns in France.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Pleased we seem to have the old-style Conservative party back. Let's have the debate about whether social democracy or laissez-faire works better for most British people. This is a debate social democracy can absolutely win and so much better than arguing whether Bukayo Saka is English or not.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Our original research indicated that few former Labour voters in the Muslim community are completely closed to returning to Labour, and these groups show that Burnham is giving some of them encouragement to do so. Our previous research, published in May is here: thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/gon...

thinklabour.co.uk

Gone, but not forever: Why many British Muslims fell out of love with Labour - but remain open to return • ThinkLabour

ThinkLabour is a think tank working at the heart of British politics to support the Labour movement with research, strategy, and policy development.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Some of the group were very positive about new Prime Minister Andy Burnham feeling he was returning Labour to its "core values", others feared that he might be more of the same. Overall the message was that they wanted to see proof of change "They have to perform. They have to show something."

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Interestingly, none of the group said they had seen Burnham's apology about Labour's handling of Gaza, though they did acknowledge that Labour was "moving in the right direction" on the issue, though for some this had not gone far enough.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

In our previous research on Muslim voters, we found that Gaza was a catalyst for switching away from Labour, but there were longer-standing reasons for discontent, including a sense that Labour was not standing up for them against racism and the hard right. This was reflected in our groups

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

NEW RESEARCH ON MUSLIM VOTERS Ahead of the Holborn & St Pancras election (1 in 5 residents are Muslim) @thinklabour.bsky.social our.bsky.social ran focus groups to explore what, if anything, has changed. We found a mood of cautious optimism about the new PM thinklabour.substack.com/p/labours-se...

thinklabour.substack.com

Labour’s Second Chance with Muslim Voters

Christabel Cooper, Interim Director of Political Strategy

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Deft political strategy has got the new administration to this point, but now it needs to have the confidence to enact policies which won't be popular in the short-term, in order to make sure transactional voters in particular, feel that Labour is their best choice by the time of the next election.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

But Labour is still 8 points behind where it was at the General Election. And it faces some incredibly difficult choices, which governments for the last 16 years have ducked because they are painful, but can't be avoided for much longer - on welfare, growth, justice and immigration among others.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

We also said that the party should make more of its policies to help the economically insecure, such as the Employment Rights Bill and the Renters Rights Bill. They have taken our advice to heart, and the better results are clear to see. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

Labour must reunite progressive voters to win the next election, says Lucy Powell

The deputy leader wants the party to take advantage of a split on the right and not be embarrassed to show its values

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Labour is doing better among all three groups, but the biggest improvements are among the economically insecure and left-liberals. We argued in May that Labour should stop treating values-driven voters transactionally, while attempting to signal to transactional voters that it shared their values.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

"Who is Andy Burnham For?" looks at which voters the new PM is winning back based on the groups @thinklabour.bsky.social identified in May: values-driven left-liberals, the economically insecure motivated by material concerns and transactional voters focused on delivery. substack.com/inbox/post/2...

substack.com

Who is Andy Burnham For?

Christabel Cooper, Interim Director of Political Strategy

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Reposted by Christabel Cooper

Adam Squires @adsquires.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Good, thoughtful, evidence based thread and article on what Labour should do to win urban voters back from Green. Something for most people to agree with / disagree with / be surprised by.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Urban voters have been the mainstay of Labour's vote in the last decade. We're hopeful that the new administration can make sure that the cities stay painted red in the future. thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/pai...

thinklabour.co.uk

Painting The City Red • ThinkLabour

ThinkLabour is a think tank working at the heart of British politics to support the Labour movement with research, strategy, and policy development.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The polling in the report was done before Andy Burnham became PM, and already we are seeing some Green supporters returning to Labour - presumably feeling more reassured about Labour's values. Solving the housing crisis will take longer but this is a really good start.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

In the report we suggest that attacking the Greens can be seen by some progressive voters as like "kicking a puppy". Highlighting the Greens softness on defence is more believable to Green considerers than more aggressive attacks eg around legalising all drugs.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

On immigration, stopping the small boats is something both liberals and conservatives can agree on, and should be the focus of policy. On other aspects of immigration, Labour should be clear that its policies are solving a genuine problem rather than just intended to signal to the right.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

On values, Labour needs to be clearer that it is a progressive and moderately socially liberal party and its position on culture/identity issues should start from this point. But some of these issues really divide Labour's coalition (eg trans rights) and Labour will have to find bridging positions.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Contrary to some stereotypes, Green voters are disproportionately economically insecure, and in cities like Bristol (which we focus on in the report), this insecurity is mainly driven by high housing costs. In the long term, we really need to build more houses to bring those costs down.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Our @thinklabour.bsky.social report on the Greens challenge to Labour is in the Guardian today. Our diagnosis of why Labour's vote fell in cities is high housing costs for young people, plus progressives worried that Labour doesn't reflects their values. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

Greens just four points behind Labour in urban areas, poll reveals

Exclusive: UK’s Green parties could take 40 seats if result replicated at next election, according to Labour-linked thinktank

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Great cast list for our next ThinkLabs event - Sam Freedman, Jack Straw and Jonathan Jones KC join @thinklabour.bsky.social's Millie Woods to discuss her latest report on whether it is possible to "re-wire" the state. Sign up for "The Lame Leviathan" event here: luma.com/br9vg44k

luma.com

ThinkLabs: The Lame Leviathan · Luma

Building on The Lame Leviathan, join Jack Straw, Sir Jonathan Jones KC, Amelia Wood and Sam Freedman to discuss on the growth of public law and discuss whether…

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

This is such an important point. The government actually delivering in a policy area may not matter to a minority (who are usually very loud on social media) but it is - eventually - noticed by the rest. Pandering to the minority or thinking everything is just about comms isn't always helpful.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Suspect there's quite a few progressive voters who would hold their noses and vote Tory because removing Farage would be an enormous blow to Reform

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Just quietly noting that the non-Farage vote in Clacton (36% x 44% turnout) is comfortably higher than the 10% of the constituency electorate needed for a petition to trigger another by-election if Farage is suspended from the Commons for 10 days...

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

And they are therefore more pragmatic than they're sometimes given credit for. In good news for Wes Streeting, our polling also, for example, finds that they would support higher defence spending. Meanwhile the new PM will be glad to know the members wholeheartedly back reform of social care.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Our latest membership polling shows that Labour members are actually *more* likely to think welfare spending is too high than the general public, giving permission for the government to look at reform. The membership wants to win elections, particularly as the alternative is (probably) Reform UK.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

...it's places with higher numbers of graduates and higher numbers of 18 to 24 year olds.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Bear in mind Ben's data is 2025 intended vote so you've already got a lot of switching to Green or Ref already in there. Whereas my LE data is 2024 vs 2026. Demographics almost certainly does explain the difference - if you look at places where Greens beat Labour in LE2026...

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

What is the divergent voting behaviour you're seeking to explain? I'd have thought nearly all of it will be demographics, eg graduates are more likely to switch to the Greens

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Obviously the demographics of the Labour vote will vary a bit between areas (though not as much as you'd think, eg most Labour voters in Red Wall seats are graduates). Ethnicity will vary a lot though, obviously that's part of the story in 2024 in cities

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

The advantage of being interim Interim CEO of ThinkLabour (for two weeks only!) is that I have made the executive order to bring my lovely greyhound into the office ♥️🐕

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

@thinklabour.bsky.social Labour membership polling written up in the Guardian today. The current Labour membership turn out to be surprisingly pragmatic about difficult issues like welfare and defence. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

Labour members ‘have tougher view on welfare than you might think’, poll suggests

Survey finds party members see health, the economy, cost of living and climate crisis among biggest challenges

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

What have Josh Widdecombe, driving tests and the cost of living got to do with each other? Find out in @thinklabour.bsky.social's new blog.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Deciding whether kids are "academic" or "technical" at an early age is going to work out particularly badly for boys, who are generally later developers and where stereotyping is likely to push them towards the non-academic path.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Labour must not take the wrong lesson from its recovery. Burnham's bounce is coming from progressive voters who currently see their values and priorities reflected in the new administration. But the previous government showed how quickly that support can disappear if they no longer do.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Instead, Reform's decline is driven partly by a modest Conservative recovery. The chart below shows where the 2024 Conservative vote has gone - they are losing slightly fewer voters to Reform than a year ago. I also suspect fewer 2024 non-voters now intend to vote Reform.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

By contrast the percentage of Labour 2024 voters intending to switch to Reform has not altered significantly for over a year.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

This chart shows the destination of Labour's 2024 vote. The red line is the percentage that would still vote Labour. You can see that this starts trending upwards around the time that the percentage of former Labour voters intending to vote Green starts falling.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Labour's headline voting intention is recovering. This pre-dates Burnham becoming PM, but as his victory became inevitable we've seen polls putting Labour within touching distance of Reform. Crucially, this appears to be a consolidation of the progressive vote, rather than gains from Reform.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Our first focus groups on Andy Burnham with Labour considerers with a spectrum of views. Interesting North/South divide - Southerners simply know less about him. There's hope he'll be more representative of "Labour values" than the previous government – will be important that he lives up to that.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

My debut on the No Sacred Cows podcast, talking about my favourite subject - the fragmentation of the electorate and how Labour might put it back together again (in which I am told I sound almost optimistic!)

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

It also trackers pollsters house effects - a matter of controversy in some quarters...

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

My favourite section (which I've never seen anywhere) is the chart of where the GE2024 vote for each party has gone. This is Labour - you can really see the rise in Labour to Green switchers after Polanski becomes leader and how it is starting to fall back (and how significant those switchers are).

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

For anyone with even a passing interest in polling, this is a fantastic resource, created by @cwp-weir.bsky.social, Research Manager at @thinklabour.bsky.social, which collates all the latest public headline polling, but also pulls out demographic detail from the tables. www.pollingpolis.co.uk

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

@thinklabour.bsky.social's report on Muslim voters found a general sense that they were taken for granted by Labour. But all is far from lost, Muslims are still more likely than average to vote Labour and most don't have a negative view of the party. Report here: thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/gon...

thinklabour.co.uk

Gone, but not forever: Why many British Muslims fell out of love with Labour - but remain open to return • ThinkLabour

ThinkLabour is a think tank working at the heart of British politics to support the Labour movement with research, strategy, and policy development.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

This is a good and necessary first step in repairing Labour's relationship with the Muslim community. But the mistakes over Gaza reflect broader problems, including a sense that Labour hasn't done enough to stand up for ethnic minorities against the hard right. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

Andy Burnham apologises for Labour’s stance on Gaza and says it ‘didn’t get it right’

Exclusive: PM-in-waiting says party must ‘do better’ in approach to Middle East and he will put more pressure on Israel

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

The entire house buying process needs to be digitised and handled by AI agents because the fact that a solicitor failing to read an email for a week or a dispute about what colour something is shaded on a lease plan or an estate agent not chasing up, can cause a sale to fall through is ridiculous.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Sure. Though for example that hasn't stopped the SNP - and the numbers for "Yes" are less consistently positive than for rejoin.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Decisions over defence and trade are also subject to the whims of other countries, which shouldn't stop us making them. And I don't think it's primarily worry about the reaction of the EU 27 that's driving the hesitation (if they don't want us, we walk away) - it's fear of the public getting upset

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Yes I think that's right. Which is why you're going to need someone who believes in Europe at an identity level rather than an analytical one

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