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chipusher.bsky.social

@chipusher.bsky.social
46 followers 51 following 45 posts

Sr. Dir. for Intel at Special Competitive Studies Project. Retired CIA SIS officer. Duke & National War College grad.

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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The U.S. built the world's best computer vision system but is underutlizing it. Shelby Pierson, former NGA Director for Analysis, on why the barrier is institutional, not technical — and why 2026–2030 is the window. www.scsp.ai/resource/sen...
scsp.ai
Sensing The Threat - SCSP
The report argues that computer vision—especially automated change detection and persistent object monitoring—is technologically mature…
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
What's left of Iran's nuclear program after the strikes? Amy McAuliffe, former CIA Assistant Director for Weapons & Counterproliferation, joins Intel at the Edge: the missing 60% HEU stockpile, retained know-how, and a new IRGC generation's weaponization calculus. www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSiX...
youtube.com
Iran's Nuclear Program: "Down But Not Out" — Amy McAuliffe on What's Left After the Strikes
YouTube video by Special Competitive Studies Project
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
For most Americans, Iraq fell off the map when the last combat troops rotated out and the headlines moved on. It is worth looking again, because the country has just lived through the most consequential nine months in its recent history. open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
open.substack.com
Off the Fence
How the Iran War Forced Iraq to Choose—and Why Its Tilt Toward Washington May Not Hold
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Seventy-five days of American and Israeli airstrikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, destroyed much of its nuclear infrastructure, and decimated its senior military leadership. None of the campaign’s stated strategic objectives has been achieved. substack.com/@williamushe...
substack.com
Winning Every Battle, Losing the War
How Tactical Success in Iran Became Strategic Failure
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Why June Is the Oil Market’s Point of No Return www.thecipherbrief.com/why-june-is-...
thecipherbrief.com
Why June Is the Oil Market’s Point of No Return
OPINION -- Two months into the U.S.-Iran war, the global oil market has shifted from shock to siege. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade normally ...
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
1/ Chinese tech firms with PLA supply chain ties are marketing AI-synthesized battlefield intelligence on U.S. forces in Iran — carrier strike group movements, sortie cycles, base buildups. Commercial data. Military-grade output. (WaPo, April 4)
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
1/ The DOJ has charged defendants in at least three separate cases over six weeks for illegally diverting US AI technology to China. These aren't isolated incidents — the shared architecture points to a systematic, multi-vector acquisition campaign. 🧵
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Reposted by @chipusher.bsky.social
Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 27/03/2026
On Lawfare Daily, 2 intelligence community veterans, @chipusher.bsky.social and Aaron Faust, joined @sranderson.bsky.social to discuss the national security threats that Iran presents and where the Trump administration—and Iran—may take the conflict from here. youtu.be/nJy9dZhxBpU
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
How do we maintain a "decision advantage" in an era of endless data? 🌐 We're hosting the SCSP AI+ Intelligence Summit on April 9! Check out the full agenda: www.scsp.ai/ai-intellige... [#AI #Intelligence #NationalSecurity #SCSP]
scsp.ai
AI+ Intelligence - SCSP
AI+ Intelligence ai+ intelligence AI is changing the rules. Come join us to write the…
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
The U.S. is drifting toward a de facto WTO withdrawal. 🏛️ By blocking judges and picking bilateral deals over global rules, we’re creating a "hub-and-spoke" system. But the danger isn't just economic—it’s strategic. If we leave the arena, we hand China the power to lead a "Minus-U.S. WTO."
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The Anthropic/Google reports reveal a new "Extraction-Exploitation Loop" in AI warfare. Beijing is now: Extracting US AI capabilities via "Hydra Clusters" Stripping guardrails to weaponize the models Using results to train the next gen Traditional chokepoints can't stop machine-speed cycles.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
The US is already most of the way out of the WTO. The real question is what China, Russia, and the EU do next — and whether Washington has gamed that out. New on Fault Lines: what a formal withdrawal would actually set in motion. buff.ly/JIdpmKx
open.substack.com
Exiting the Arena: What a US Withdrawal from the WTO Would Actually Mean
The logic of coercive bilateralism has its own momentum—and its own risks.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Next on Fault Lines: After Khamenei open.substack.com/pub/williamu...
open.substack.com
After Khamenei
Five Scenarios for Iran and How Washington Can Shape Iran's Post-Conflict Future
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Emergency Update on Iran with Norman Roule open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
open.substack.com
Emergency Update on Iran with Norman Roule
New episode of Intel at the Edge out now.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Netanyahu’s Endgame in Gaza, the West Bank, and the Politics of Permanent Interim williamusher.substack.com/p/the-calcul...
williamusher.substack.com
The Calculated Ambiguity
Netanyahu’s Endgame in Gaza, the West Bank, and the Politics of Permanent Interim
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
How the CIA Launched the Predator Program with Alec Bierbauer open.substack.com/pub/scsp222/...
open.substack.com
How the CIA Launched the Predator Program with Alec Bierbauer
In this episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher sits down with retired CIA officer Alec Bierbauer, a core founder of the team that launched the agency’s revolutionary Predator drone program.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse. bit.ly/49HfrpH
open.substack.com
Subscriptions | Substack
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
The question has shifted from whether the Islamic Republic can survive to what follows its collapse. bit.ly/49HfrpH
bit.ly
After the Fall: Who Would Lead a Post-Islamic Republic Iran?
The protests that erupted from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on December 28, 2025, have evolved into the largest challenge to the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
I shared my thoughts on the protests in Iran with the great #PeterMartin from Bloomberg. You can check out the article here (paywalled). #Iran www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran Edges Closer to a Revolution That Would Reshape the World
If the uprising succeeds in toppling the Islamic Republic, it would upend global geopolitics and energy markets — with the risk of widespread chaos.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
7/7 - Bottom line: The people in Iran's streets will determine the outcome. Great powers can shape the environment but can't control the decision. After 40+ years of "the regime is about to fall" predictions, humility is warranted. But this time does feel different. Substack: bit.ly/49w9fRi
bit.ly
The World Watches Tehran: How Global Powers Are Calculating Their Next Moves on Iran
As regime-threatening protests engulf Iran, the great powers are recalibrating—but their interests diverge sharply. A strategic assessment.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
6/7 - SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS worth watching: Oil toward $150/bbl if Hormuz threatened China's energy security scramble Refugee flows that would dwarf Syria Nuclear materials in a collapsing state Regional proxies seeking new patrons
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
5/7 - THE U.S.: Trump threatens strikes but the options being briefed are "largely non-kinetic"—cyber, sanctions, Starlink. The Maduro capture showed willingness to act. But Iran isn't Venezuela. 2 million bpd of oil. Thousands of missiles. No good endgame scenarios.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
4/7 - GULF STATES: Deafening silence from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. They'd love to see the Islamic Republic fall—but they share a maritime border with Iran and 21% of global oil transits Hormuz. Chaos next door isn't obviously better than a weakened enemy.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
3/7 - RUSSIA: Moscow is shipping Mi-28 helicopters to Iran while preparing asylum for Khamenei. Classic Putin: loyal enough to maintain the relationship if the regime survives, pragmatic enough to cut losses if it doesn't. Syria taught the Kremlin its limits.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
2/7 - CHINA: "Partnership, not alliance." That phrase from Beijing's spokesman is doing a lot of work. Translation: We'll buy your cheap oil, but we won't defend you. Tehran learned this during the June war. No Chinese air defense systems arrived when Israeli missiles did.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
NEW: Iran is facing its most serious crisis since 1979. I spent 20+ years at CIA working Iran/Near East. What strikes me most isn't the protests—it's how the great powers are calculating their responses. A thread on what they see, and what they're hiding. 🧵 1/7 bit.ly/49w9fRi
open.substack.com
The World Watches Tehran: How Global Powers Are Calculating Their Next Moves on Iran
As regime-threatening protests engulf Iran, the great powers are recalibrating—but their interests diverge sharply. A strategic assessment.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran Edges Closer to a Revolution That Would Reshape the World
If the uprising succeeds in toppling the Islamic Republic, it would upend global geopolitics and energy markets — with the risk of widespread chaos.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Kudos to @wsj.com for this. The crackdown by ICE & CPB suffers from systematic failure. Both agencies being tasked with missions outside their expertise, reckless recruitment of sub-par agents, inadequate training, hi pressure for "results." They are a danger not a help. www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
wsj.com
Videos Show How ICE Vehicle Stops Can Escalate to Shootings
A WSJ visual investigation found that the Minneapolis ICE killing is one of 13 incidents where federal immigration agents have used deadly force against civilians in vehicles since July.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
I like this line from @fareedzakaria.bsky.social : "When the U.S. acts like a rulemaker rather than a shakedown artist, it buys something more valuable than fear: consent. Consent is what turns hegemony into leadership" www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Trump is teaching the world to fear America
Goodwill built over decades is now being squandered.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
For my initial thoughts on the current situation inside Iran. Check out my post on LinkedIn bit.ly/4qQS0Bq.
linkedin.com
My initial take on the protests in Iran. In sum, I think the regime is trying (and so far failing) to navigate its deepest and most volatile crisis since the Iran-Iraq War. The… | Wil...
My initial take on the current round of protests in Iran. In sum, I think the regime is trying (and so far failing) to navigate its deepest and most volatile crisis since the Iran-Iraq War. The drivin...
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
How ‘Turn and Burn’ Immigration Operations Unleash Chaos — and Sweep up U.S. Citizens www.nytimes.com/video/us/100... Outrageous behavior by CBP in these so-called “Turn and Burn” cosplay operations.
nytimes.com
Video: How ‘Turn and Burn’ Immigration Operations Unleash Chaos — and Sweep up U.S. Citizens
A video analysis of one early morning raid in Los Angeles revealed the vast web of consequences brought by new aggressive Border Patrol tactics.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Israel and the US just improved their negotiating position immensely. How much depends on whether Israel struck Fordow, and how effectively.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
The Supreme Leader no doubt is in hiding but he probably knows was kept alive only because Bibi allowed it.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Iran has already started launching long range drones and will probably attempt to launch missiles, if they retained the capacity to do so. But I suspect their response will be tempered by their calculations of what Israel still holds at risk.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
While the impact of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is unclear (Natanz got leveled according to imagery but we don’t know yet whether Fordow was struck or how badly), the impact of Iran’s leadership will be profound. Almost the entire command structure of themMilitary and IRGC were neutralized.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
What Israel accomplished was an incredible feat of intelligence-led combined arms. Mossad had teams on the ground (probably for months) developing targets’ pattern-of-life and attack vectors. Strikes were carried out using manned aircraft, drones, and probably other means.
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chipusher.bsky.social @chipusher.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Why Al-Assad Fell www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Why Al-Assad Fell
Understanding the factors that led to the Syrian regime’s collapse is key to putting the pieces of the country back together.
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