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Charles Gaba ✡️

@charlesgaba.com
76K followers 2.4K following 44K posts

Healthcare data analysis, advocacy & snark. I also raise money for Dems. 🏥 ACASignups.net 🔵 Blue26.org

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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 6h
Typo: Nevada instead of Nebraska
Nevada instead of Nebraska
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 11h
NOTEWORTHY: In the City of Detroit itself, turnout is already at 3.6%...nearly 3x the rate of the state as a whole.
Detroit City: 3.6% voter turnout (14,909 ballots cast)
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 11h
#MeanwhileInMichigan, over 93,000 people have voted in the November 2026 general election (1.26%).
1.3% (93,154) percentage of active registered voters who cast a ballot in the selected election.
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 14h
And JUST TODAY, the DCCC added 8 MORE "safe" GOP-held seats to their "targeted" list! (I already added TX-09) KS-02 (R+10): Don Coover MI-01 (R+11): Callie Barr NJ-02 (R+05): Zack Mullock NC-13 (R+09): Paul Barringer OK-05 (R+09): Jena Nelson VA-06 (R+12): Beth Macy WA-05 (R+05): Carmela Conroy
KS-02
MI-01
NC-13
NJ-02
OK-05
TX-09
VA-06
VA-06
WA-05
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 16h
Here's the breakout of how much Blue26.org has raised for STATE DEMOCRATIC PARTIES to date.
Blue26.org State Party Fundraising Totals thru 9/30/26				
State	Amount		State	Amount
Georgia	$12,183.35 		New Hampshire	$392.57 
Arizona	$11,869.75 		Oregon	$353.66 
Michigan	$11,574.58 		Missouri	$258.07 
Nevada	$10,930.37 		Hawaii	$170.00 
Pennsylvania	$10,881.83 		Maryland	$161.03 
Wisconsin	$10,703.51 		Utah	$148.35 
North Carolina	$10,642.44 		West Virginia	$147.89 
New Jersey	$4,213.79 		Kansas	$147.58 
Virginia	$3,940.81 		Idaho	$142.78 
Minnesota	$2,862.17 		New Mexico	$125.28 
Maine	$1,272.85 		Washington	$109.15 
Texas	$1,233.92 		Colorado	$101.52 
Florida	$1,167.86 		Montana	$98.36 
Alabama	$1,119.52 		Indiana	$95.75 
Connecticut	$847.58 		South Dakota	$80.33 
Arkansas	$699.87 		Wyoming	$73.12 
Tennessee	$699.38 		Oklahoma	$62.28 
South Carolina	$675.69 		North Dakota	$60.80 
Nebraska	$602.01 		Illinois	$60.13 
Alaska	$535.87 		New York	$59.06 
Iowa	$445.65 		Delaware	$53.77 
Louisiana	$441.15 		Kentucky	$46.63 
Mississippi	$440.08 		Rhode Island	$17.00 
Ohio	$423.82 		Massachusetts	$12.00 
California	$405.58 		Vermont	$11.20 
			Total	$103,801.74
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 16h
UPDATE: As promised, here's the breakout of how much Blue26.org has raised for STATE LEGISLATIVE Democrats in every state so far. Note that Virginia and New Jersey held their legislative elections in 2025; Connecticut has a strict public finance system for state races.
State by state breakout of funds raised for state legislative Democrats thru 9/30/26
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 02/10/2026
“Oh look! Cute bunnies!”
Simone from Cinebinge
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 02/10/2026
This is the face of a millennial watching Watership Down for the first time. cc: @cinebinge.bsky.social
Simone from Cinebinge
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
charlesgaba.substack.com/p/one-more-t...
At 16.66% interest, it would take 568 monthly payments of $50 apiece to pay off…or more than 47 years. Ms. Zimmerman would presumably be on Medicare at this point, and her child would be a middle-aged man.
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
A reminder that I've raised over $22 million for thousands of Democrats down to the state legislative level and all I got was a lousy T-shirt. (and a coffee tumbler with a missing lid)
"He hosts and organizes fundraising events and campaigns fro Republicans from the president all the way down to state races."
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
For U.S. HOUSE races, I've raised money for nearly 300 candidates, although nearly half of them have received less than $100 apiece so far. Here's the House candidates who I've raised at least $1,000 for to date:
Committee	Amount		Committee	Amount
Josh Weil for Congress (2025 special)	$30,512.06 		Mitchell Berman for Congress	$4,843.86 
Gay Valimont For Congress (2025 special)	$25,540.35 		Susie Lee for Nevada	$4,717.78 
Blake for the North Country	$13,018.92 		Kristen for Michigan	$4,712.92 
Cooke for Congress	$7,771.22 		Denise Powell for Congress	$4,390.65 
Kaptur for Congress	$7,237.48 		Sean McCann for Congress	$4,322.42 
Adam Gray for Congress	$6,913.39 		Landsman for Congress	$4,190.95 
Vicente Gonzalez For U.S. Congress	$6,511.84 		Bobby Pulido for Texas	$4,097.23 
Christina Bohannan for Congress	$6,236.34 		Josh Riley for Congress	$3,921.91 
Bob Brooks for Congress	$6,094.81 		Gillen for NY	$3,821.02 
Paige for PA	$6,046.66 		Sam for Montana	$3,718.79 
Gabe Vasquez for Congress	$6,035.90 		Marni von Wilpert for Congress	$3,577.92 
Manny Rutinel for Congress	$6,035.44 		Poindexter for Congress	$3,536.18 
Friends of Janelle Stelson	$6,007.53 		Johnny Garcia For Congress	$3,418.41 
Villegas for Congress	$5,988.33 		Lindsay for Iowa	$3,412.35 
Don Davis for NC	$5,883.31 		Jeremy Moss for Congress	$3,378.83 
Cait For New York	$5,877.57 		Emilia Sykes for Congress	$3,238.38 
Sarah for Iowa	$5,776.95 		Vindman for Congress	$3,173.74 
Mendoza For Congress	$5,768.48 		SUOZZI FOR CONGRESS	$3,154.34 
Jared Moskowitz for Congress	$5,693.81 		Jonathan Nez for Congress	$3,042.66 
Rebecca Bennett for Congress	$5,685.64 		Ager for Congress	$2,948.99 
Friends of William Lawrence	$5,678.21 		Dunlap for Congress	$2,884.35 
Amish for Arizona	$5,664.62 		Shannon Taylor for VA	$2,708.68 
Elaine Luria for Congress	$5,530.83 		Shawn Harris for Congress	$2,655.37 
Derek Tran for Congress	$5,236.11 		Marie for Congress	$2,624.49 
Bob Harvie for Congress	$5,218.57 		Nellie Pou for Congress	$2,570.28 
Texans for Henry Cuellar	$5,172.53 		Castor for Congress	$2,559.04 
Christina for Congress	$5,169.73 		Killin for Colorado	$2,401.79 
			Dave Min for Congress	$2,286.75 
			FL-13 2026 Democratic …
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
Here's an updated breakout of my U.S. SENATE fundraising thru the end of September: --Top Tier Races average ~$22.1K apiece --2nd Tier Races average ~$11.9K apiece --3rd Tier Races average ~$4.1K apiece* (actually ~$4.6K apiece since I can't raise $ for Todd Achilles as he doesn't use ActBlue)
Breakout of Blue26.org fundraising for U.S. SENATE races
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
Here's the breakout to date: U.S. Senate: $353,531 (22.5%) U.S. House: $365,232 (23.3%) State Legislative: $576,959 (36.8%) State Executives*: $105,479 (6.7%) Courts: $62,513 (4.0%) State Dem Parties: $101,466 (6.5%) Local/Other: $3,274 (0.2%) TOTAL: $1,568,454
U.S. Senate: $353,531 (22.5%)
U.S. House: $365,232 (23.3%)
State Legislative: $576,959 (36.8%)
State Executives*: $105,479 (6.7%)
Courts: $62,513 (4.0%)
State Dem Parties: $101,466 (6.5%)
Local/Other: $3,274 (0.2%)
TOTAL: $1,568,454
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
As of the end of September 2026, I've raised 76% MORE for Democratic candidates than I had at the same point in 2022: $1.57M vs. $892K. I'm hoping to crack $2.0 MILLION by Election day, which will require raising over $13,000/day for the remaining 33 days of the election cycle.
Line graph showing Blue26.org cumulative fundraising over time compared to the 2022 & 2024 cycles
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
Even so, after removing them from the page at their request, I double-checked just to be sure, and here's the response:
Thank you!

We will have knocked 10,000 doors by the election and have a robust gotv texting, phone banking, and canvassing plan. 

I have signs everywhere. Digital ads running.

My opponent has not done a single thing. 

So we will have done all we can do as a VERY grassroots campaign!

I will only know the results on November 4th, but I do feel it is possible for me to win this.
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
😳 HOLY CRAP. UNPRECEDENTED. While I've had a few cases where candidates asked me to remove them for legal/personal reasons (they accept public financing or had to drop out), I've NEVER had a candidate straight up say "nah, I don't need any more money, I'm good!" before...especially for STATE HOUSE.
Hi!

I am one of your Blue 26 candidates, and I want to say thank you so much for including me and for all the donations this has brought.

I have decided to suspend any new contributions to my campaign. I have the money I need to finish strong, which will take a bit off my shoulders since I have been serving as my own treasurer.

Can you remove me as a recipient of contributions on your form?


Thanks!
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
OK...a few of them don't have ActBlue accounts but most of them do. It looks like they're mostly judicial positions. Will see what I can do tomorrow.
District Judge, 432nd Judicial District	Courtney Miller
District Judge, 297th Judicial District	Fred Howey
District Judge, 236th Judicial District	Katherine “Kate” Kim
District Judge, 231st Judicial District 	Lyndsay Newell
Criminal District Judge, Court No. 1	Cindy Stormer
Family District Judge, 325th Judicial District	Andy Griffin
Family District Judge, 323rd Judicial District	Brian Willett
Family District Judge, 324th Judicial District	Crystal Gayden
Criminal District Attorney Tarrant County	Tiffany Burks
County Judge	Alisa Simmons
Judge, County Criminal Court, No. 5	Julya Billhymer
District Clerk	Nathan Smith
County Clerk	Lydia Bean
County Commissioner, Precinct No. 2	Jared Williams
County Commissioner, Precinct No. 4	Nydia Cardenas
Justice of the Peace, Precinct No. 2	Celina Vasquez
Justice of the Peace, Precinct No. 7	Kenneth D. Sanders
Justice of the Peace, Precinct No. 4	Rodney Lee
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 01/10/2026
P.S. Oh yeah...and unlike most ActBlue pages, mine include a tool to OPT OUT OF SHARING YOUR EMAIL/PHONE NUMBER WITH THE CAMPAIGNS! It should pop up during the checkout process and will look like the screen shot below. Choose "Not Now" to prevent your email/phone from being shared!
Popup tool to opt out of sharing your email/phone number with the campaigns
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 30/09/2026
Good: Blue26.org donations are ramping up as we head into the home stretch! Good/Bad depending on your POV: Donations to U.S. Senate races have begun to SWAMP every other downballot race! I'm glad folks are chipping in to flip the Senate, but STATE EXEC & STATE LEGISLATIVE Dems need help as well!
Graph breaking out relative % of Blue26.org donations to various types of candidates over time
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 30/09/2026
A reminder that Sen. Elissa Slotkin is a moderate, zionist Jewish woman with a background in national security specializing in Middle Eastern affairs. If she’s taking Abdul under her wing it gives me some reassurance.
New in @playbookdc: Sen. @ElissaSlotkin and @AbdulElSayed will appear at a town hall together and take questions Saturday in Macomb County, the birthplace of Reagan Democrats that Trump won in the last three elections.
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 30/09/2026
On average, they're paying an estimated 58% more in premiums + out of pocket expenses this year than they did in 2025...almost entirely due to Republicans letting the enhanced tax credits expire, plus other Trump Regime policy changes. acasignups.net/enrollee_cos...
Bar graph: Michigan: Average net monthly ACA premiums + estimated out of pocket expenses per enrollee, 2026 vs. 2025
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 30/09/2026
Huh. Surprising but appreciated ! Thank you!
Contribution Alert:
South Dakota Blue
$5,500
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 30/09/2026
Huh?
Weird response
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
Huh.
🇺🇸 NATIONAL POLL By Quinnipiac 

Pres. Trump 
Approve: 34%
Disapprove: 61% 
——
Generic Ballot 
🟦 Democrats: 51% 
🟥 Republicans: 39% 

D+12 — biggest Dem lead by Quinnipiac since Sep. 2018 (was D+7 in July)

9/24-27 | 1,032 RV
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
Speaking of which: Yes, I kept my word: I voted for Abdul (& have raised over $16K for his campaign so far). Not that this will stop leftist antisemites from continuing to call me a zionazi g*noc*de lover, of course (or right-wing antisemites from calling me a terrorist-loving, self-hating Jew).
Screen shot of my ballot showing that I voted for Abdul El-Sayed for U.S. Senate on the November 2026 ballot
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
This is why I'm OK voting for Abdul in spite of my lingering concerns. I'm betting that he'll end up being pretty much a party line Dem on 95% of the issues & votes which come up.
"Same with that El-Sayed guy...groomed by the elites to sell us a mirage"
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
Or, alternately, since he was born in 1975, perhaps this Gen X reference is more appropriate:
Hawk vs. Hawkeye
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
Someone should send this to Sen. Schmitt.
Hawk vs. Hawkeye
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
👀 Holy Shit.
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
🎉 UPDATE: BOOM!! Help keep it going! Blue26.org
$1,500,081.08
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
Did anyone else catch the chyron at the bottom? Hilton is proposing English-only classrooms in California ?? That’ll go over well…
Steve Hilton proposes English-only classrooms
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
Meanwhile, let’s check in and see how the Michigan Libertarian Party is doing…
Resolution disavowing Anthony Hudson
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 29/09/2026
Here's the full transcript of the ad in question. Assuming all of it is accurate I find it difficult to believe that he has a leg to stand on:
"One evening I see lights. I open the door, and it's a police officer. They arrested me because I didn't make a $50 payment to Roger Marshall. I was 8 months pregnant and I said please, do not handcuff me in front of my 2-yr old daughter.

"Roger Marshall preyed on the low-income families of Kansas. The healthcare system is broken...but not for Roger Marshall. He's absolutely profiting from it.

TEXT: "Marshall had dozens arrested for minor medical debt" (w/citation)

TEXT: "Roger Marshall is worth nearly $10 million" (w/citation)
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 28/09/2026
Now THAT’S what I’m talking about!! WOOT!! blue26.org/state
Contribution Alert: South Carolina Blue 
$1,200
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 28/09/2026
Thank you! Let’s get those STATE LEGISLATIVE races going as well! Blue26.org/state
Contribution Alert: Senate Blue 26: $10,000
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 28/09/2026
They actually did! Sort of.
Die Hard 2: Die Harder
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 27/09/2026
FWIW, here's how my Blue26.org fundraising has broken out by percent of total for different types of offices. State Legislative races broke 50% of the total a year ago, but have gradually drifed down to below 40% today. U.S. Senate races have ramped up from ~6% a year ago to 20% of the total now.
Breakout by portion of total Blue26.org fundraising by type of office over time
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 27/09/2026
Apparently Bernie--who supposedly sees Abdul as his progressive heir apparent on M4A--hasn't given a dime of his $23 million war chest to help. 👀
El-Sayed was vastly outspent during a contentious Democratic primary. However, he emerged victorious after prominent progressives, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), campaigned with him.

After his victory, progressive allies pledged to support El-Sayed in the general election, casting the race as a test of whether their brand of economic populism can win in a swing state.
"I'm going to do my best in every way to see that he's elected to the U.S. Senate," Sanders told Semafor last month. "We're going to do everything we can."
Between the lines: Sanders, who has $23 million in his campaign account, has not transferred money to El-Sayed's campaign.

Read more on smry.ai: https://smry.ai/https://www.axios.com/2026/09/22/senate-abdul-el-sayed-michigan-progressives#:~:text=El%2DSayed%20was%20vastly%20outspent,money%20to%20El%2DSayed's%20campaign.
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 27/09/2026
Bernie hasn't turned over a dime of his $23 million.
El-Sayed was vastly outspent during a contentious Democratic primary. However, he emerged victorious after prominent progressives, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), campaigned with him.

After his victory, progressive allies pledged to support El-Sayed in the general election, casting the race as a test of whether their brand of economic populism can win in a swing state.
"I'm going to do my best in every way to see that he's elected to the U.S. Senate," Sanders told Semafor last month. "We're going to do everything we can."
Between the lines: Sanders, who has $23 million in his campaign account, has not transferred money to El-Sayed's campaign.

Read more on smry.ai: https://smry.ai/https://www.axios.com/2026/09/22/senate-abdul-el-sayed-michigan-progressives#:~:text=El%2DSayed%20was%20vastly%20outspent,money%20to%20El%2DSayed's%20campaign.
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 26/09/2026
FWIW, here's @votehub.com's odds of Dems winning various Senate seats. Yellow = "extreme long shots but plausible." Of those, MS, SD & ID have received virtually no national attention...and the latter two are running as independents, so they may prefer not to get national Dem attention anyway.
State	Dem Nominee	"Win
% chance"
Georgia	Jon Ossoff	94.9%
North Carolina	Roy Cooper	93.4%
Minnesota	Peggy Flanagan	92.1%
New Hampshire	Chris Pappas	88.1%
Michigan	Abdul El-Sayed	73.7%
Alaska	Mary Peltola	65.0%
Maine	Troy Jackson	64.9%
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	63.0%
Texas	James Talarico	62.4%
Iowa	Josh Turek	42.2%
Kansas	Adam Hamilton	25.1%
Nebraska	Dan Osborn (I)	23.1%
South Carolina	Annie Andrews	15.2%
Florida	Angie Nixon	6.2%
Mississippi	Scott Colom	4.6%
Montana	Alani Bankhead/Seth Bodnar	4.2%
South Dakota	Brian Bengs (I)	2.5%
Idaho	Todd Achilles (I)	1.1%
Alabama	Everett Wess	0.0%
Arkansas	Hallie Shoffner	0.0%
Wyoming	James Byrd	0.0%
Oklahoma	Jasmine Thomas	0.0%
Louisiana	Jamie Davis	0.0%
Tennessee	Marquita Bradshaw	0.0%
Kentucky	Charles Booker	0.0%
West Virginia	Rachel Fetty Anderson	0.0%
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 25/09/2026
Unlike most states, Maryland has a robust STATE-BASED SUBSIDY program which is *backfilling* most of the lost federal tax credits for most ACA enrollees. As a result, their effectuated enrollment is only down by around 6% overall so far this year:
Maryland: Effectuated ACA exchange enrollment by month, 2026 vs 2025 & 2019
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 25/09/2026
In 2027, *unsubsidized* GA ACA enrollees will see their average premiums jump further yet, from ~$777/month apiece this year to ~$938/month next year. Effectuated enrollment dropped by 12% year over year during Open Enrollment and has continued to plummet since then...by nearly 1/3 as of August.
Effectuated ACA exchange enrollment by month & year in Georgia: 2026, 2025 & 2019
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 25/09/2026
Georgia ACA enrollees already saw their average net premiums skyrocket by 122% this year, while their avg. out of pocket expenses also went up by an estimated ~72%. acasignups.net/enrollee_cos...
Bar Graph: Avg. net ACA premiums & estimated avg. out of pocket expenses per enrollee in Georgia, 2026 vs. 2025
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 25/09/2026
OKLAHOMA???
Trump doing a rally in Oklahoma next week, per the RNC.
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 24/09/2026
Also, is it just me, or is this a Photoshop thing?
zoom in on 2 soldiers
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 24/09/2026
RASMUSSEN has Abdul up 3 points. www.rasmussenreports.com/public_conte...
Michigan Senate: Democrat El-Sayed Leads by 3 Points - Demographics
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 24/09/2026
Thank you!!
Black Jobs ‘26: State Legislative (AL-NY): $3,500
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 24/09/2026
Actually, one of the shirts just says “Voting is Sacred” with a Native American motif, the other is an IBEW for Biden/Harris 2020 shirt. Here’s a pic of the coffee tumbler (the finish has badly flaked off over the years):
NE Dems Coffee Tumbler
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 24/09/2026
San Rafael, CA. 😳
Regular : $6.39
Diesel: $8.95
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 24/09/2026
The gas & oil lobby is now dunking on a senior Republican U.S. Senator.
Why stop at diesel, @ChuckGrassley?

Let’s ban U.S. beef exports til we get the @Arbys 5 for 5 again.
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