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Charles Driver

@charlesdriver.bsky.social
1.2K followers 589 following 467 posts

Asst Prof UZH Psychology - quant methods, dynamic systems, human development, psychology. @CharlesDriverAU

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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
individually estimated / defined models can be a nice sanity check for the assumptions / complexity of hierarchical models. But in science we mostly want to generalise, so if the hierarchical model is worse in some way, it's probably just badly spec'd, imho...
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
And I can't get back at past me and somebody has to pay...
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Society for the Improvement of Psychological Science (SIPS) @improvingpsych.org · 26/08/2026
Congratulations to the project “openESM,” which received🏆2026 SIPS commendation! openESM is a database of harmonized openly available experience sampling datasets. 🔗Project website: buff.ly/3Q5EwYt 🔗A preprint describing the project: buff.ly/iXcT6ZL
openesmdata.org
openESM: Open Experience Sampling Method Database
<!DOCTYPE html> openESM: Open Experience Sampling Method Database A database of open experience sampling datasets openESM is a database of harmonized openly available experience sampling datasets.…
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Peter Tennant @pwgtennant.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Does the new shingles vaccine (Shingrix) protect against cardiovascular disease (CVD)? Yes, according to a new 'natural experiment' study in @natmed.nature.com. But the truth is sadly far less convincing! Pull up a chair and let's examine another peer review failure in a Nature journal. 1/10 🧵
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
How do dynamics estimates vary by study timescale, even when using continuous-time methods that should 'theoretically' account for this? @maristodemou.bsky.social takes a look at wellbeing variables from bimonthly GESIS and yearly SOEP panels to examine the issue. osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
OSF
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Miri Forbes @miriforbes.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
One week to go until I'll be reviewing the applications - can't wait! I've now added information on the top-up funds I have available too. Please spread the word to anyone you know who might be interested in doing a PhD in quantitative psychopathology :) miriamkforbes.academic.ws
miriamkforbes.academic.ws
Miriam K. Forbes, PhD
I am an Associate Professor in the School of Psychological Sciences at Macquarie University. I was awarded my PhD in Psychology in 2014, and went on to do po...
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Mmm disagree :) That approach is probably one reason it took me almost 10 years to get interested in university after high school... building motivation is useful
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Just publish good stuff.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Pretty sure the bee had found a home in my chicken. Or maybe I eat too ravenously or something.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Bee sting in mouth removal operation with a spoon was a new experience at #SAA2026 conference dinner last night
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
At least, until I looked at the temperature forecast...
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Night train for me, looking forward to Vienna and #SAA2026 :)
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
If only 'working on it' always led to 'look here's something neat!' aha.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Change in the rate of change is probably an unusual target causal effect, but does at least plausibly exist...
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The functions are actually what I think we 'really' want to know as scientists generally, but whether they are fruitful to pursue directly or sneak up on them indirectly is I think less clear.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
I've had reviewers press me on this which was helpful for forming this view, I assume it's been written about somewhere but honestly don't know am curious going to look ;)
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
'instantaneous' causal inference is, I suggest, the estimation of *functions* or 'mechanisms' which, when coupled with relevant inputs (state of system, magnitude of change in one or more variables, time interval, covariates), provide estimates of causal effects for specific circumstances.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
ctsem has a GUI now -- visual, SEM-like spec, fit & diagnostics for hierarchical discrete or continuous time state space models (i.e., DSEM's). github.com/cdriveraus/c... State-space (process + measurement) and individual difference views shown. Ideas welcome! Workshop @saa2026.bsky.social
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kasparburger.bsky.social @kasparburger.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
I am hiring! A postdoctoral position (100%, 3 years, renewable) is available at the University of Potsdam. The successful candidate will contribute to research on education and the life course and to teaching. Application deadline: August 15, 2026. See: www.uni-potsdam.de/en/socedlico...
uni-potsdam.de
Overview
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
I guess the implication is that the paper was no good? Which might be fair, but it's not like human papers are usually so great either...
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Daniel Heck @danielheck.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Postdoc position @unimarburg.bsky.social in the project: "Bridging the Gap Between Verbal Psychological Theories & Formal Statistical Modeling with Large Language Models" (funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de) 📅Start: 01.10.2026 |⏳3 years 🔗 Job posting: uni-marburg.de/78NrWT Thanks for sharing!
logo of Psychological Methods Lab
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
:) and in that spirit I guess i disagree with "There is no “true” causal timing to discover, there is only a target estimand" -- if your estimand is the generating system model rather than an effect at a specific lag I think you've got some argument towards 'true causal timing'. But not so easy!
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
I really dislike the idea that every contributor to a paper has to be perfectly fluent with every element of it (there are positive possibilities for load sharing / teamwork, not just free-riding). Otherwise yeah, improved mechanisms for assessing paper value are of course desperately needed...
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Have a half finished paper on this comparing a fairly simple very fast approximation to 'proper' NUTS sampling, curious to chat when we meet in Malta :)
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
I would have said something more in the middle... (replace FIML with multiple imputation as needed)
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
As a different reviewer I hate it :)
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Daniel Lakens @lakens.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
You can find my fork here github.com/Lakens/Quart... but it is under extremely active development, and probably not fully documented, so maybe check in end of next week? It is functional, but setting it up might still be some effort without assistance at the moment.
github.com
GitHub - Lakens/QuartoReview: Editor for Qmd files
Editor for Qmd files. Contribute to Lakens/QuartoReview development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
For future me: Username (optional) = Username (not optional)
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Is there a 'git personal access token' region of the brain? Did I sustain damage there as a child?
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Torn between viewing this as moral failure of the individual vs system.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
I vaguely remember experiencing that this only held for some cases, and that in certain situations the increase in iterations per minute (for the computationally simpler state sampling) outweighed the efficiency loss - did you encounter anything similar?
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Thoughts and prayers.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Yeah I mean I only asked the question so I can figure out which side of the flame war to be on, otherwise I don't think it matters either ;)
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
True, for a minimal definition of confidence region at least yeah. But if I anyway rely on asymptotic assumptions and use a multivariate-normal for confidence intervals (i.e. from hessian at max likelihood), I should just as well use it for confidence region samples / transforms, no?
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Is it somehow philosophically non-frequentist if I sample from the frequentist confidence region and compute my quantities of interest? Asking for a friend.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
or 3) stuff in between.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Nah I just thought wanting a decent abstract would have been less controversial 5 years ago 😅
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
As if we're all out there only trying to collect skills. Doing stuff is useful too.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
cool. looking forward to the people who find it meaningful and worthwhile to create useful summaries using whatever good tools are at their disposal.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
why have papers at all? isn't it just lazy? shouldn't we all be out there performing the experiments and gathering the data ourselves, or at least, paying assistants to do it?
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Let's go back 5 years in time and imagine I'd still like a good summary. Maybe I'm not as skilled, maybe I'm less tolerant of sifting through too much mediocre work, maybe I'm lazy or busy.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Hatred for llm's creates some interesting logic. I'd just like a good summary, piecing through 40 pages to discover that eg. nothing very interesting was done is boring and wastes time. Summaries exist as a concept for a reason :)
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Seriously, if only this were true! Many abstracts are more like teasers.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Sure yeah. Some domains are at least observationally rich enough with strong enough signal that it was clear well before ml. Curious how much further it can go.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
That sounds like a 'not rich enough data' issue to me? what scenarios are there where this is a problem that better / more / different data can't resolve?
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
For some high enough value of 'well predicting', on a sufficiently rich dataset, they should converge at least! Interesting q to me is in which domains current available data is rich enough, and how we might determine that without explicit experiment...
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
as a re-evaluation / comparison / supplement I like it a lot, yeah. Feels like it makes the measurement problem even harder though, but will be interesting to see.
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Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Why stop there? Why extract anything? Just put in the text and ask the llm what you want to know about the person / sample. (Bit sceptical here!)
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GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften @gesis.org · 22/01/2026
#jobs #stellenangebote #GESISjobs #jobfairy #TrustedResearchEnvironments Pursue your scientific career at GESIS! youtu.be/zMY2zqYFIMg Apply now for a job as a Associate in Trusted Research Environments (Salary group 11 TV-L, working time 39,5 h/week, unlimited contract) gesis.jobs.personio....
youtu.be
Scientific career at GESIS
At GESIS, researchers work in various phases of their scientific careers: as student assistants, doctoral candidates, postdocs, senior researchers, team leaders, and department heads. The institute's goal is to provide its scientific staff with the best possible support in their various career phase
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