iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by devinpleuler

Matthew Doyle @mattdoyle.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

Fifteen years ago, I got my dream job writing for MLSsoccer. Last week, that came to an end. I'm off on my own, and it's time to build something new – with a little help from all of you. tacticsfreezone.ghost.io/an-end-to-my...

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 30/01/2026

En route to Houston for @americansoccerinsights.com summit. Really looking forward to catching up with some old faces.

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cata @catabush.com · 23/01/2026

In the wake of FBref's defacto death, I saw a lot of posts suggesting alternate data sources. Unfortunately, many of them focus exclusively on men's soccer. To measure what options remain for woso, I conducted a survey of the most popular FBref alternatives. What I found is disappointing: 🧵

Bar chart
Title: Best sources for women's soccer data
Subtitle: Women's competitions with xG Data | 8 comps surveyed
Chart shows # of comps on y-axis. Only FBref scored 8/8. Next closest is Fotmob at 4.

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 03/11/2025

The best thing about LLMs in data science is that nobody forgets to label their axes anymore.

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 02/06/2025

When your step count is larger than your sample size. Ahead of the election, I walked 65 km around my electoral district and took a picture of every political lawn sign. www.centralwinger.com/p/getting-st...

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 15/05/2025

So if Distance is flat, and Sprints are up, that means ... Walking must also be up? There has to be some sort of reciprocal change to the ensure balance. I'm having a very difficult time believing this data, especially after the inflation of stoppage time added minutes.

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 31/03/2025

First blog post in a while. Tracking data research probably wasn’t worth it until recently. And some unexpected utility of the Hungarian algorithm. www.centralwinger.com/p/tracking-d...

centralwinger.com

Tracking Data was a Red Herring

It's not anymore.

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 24/02/2025

Lucasfilm should have hired @mikeduncan.bsky.social to do a Revolutions-style accompanying podcast for Andor. Such a missed opportunity.

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 27/01/2025

Is there a conceptual issue with performing a bayesian update on xG measurements after a shot? The outcome is pretty useful information, and it's a mathematically valid approach. I assume someone has already tried this?

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 13/01/2025

I built 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺𝗹𝗶𝘁-𝘀𝗼𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗿, a custom React component for Streamlit for working with soccer tracking data. And a blog post on 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮, 𝗧𝗶𝗻𝘆 𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗺𝘀

centralwinger.com

Big Data, Tiny Teams

Introducing streamlit-soccer and some thoughts on team tools

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 01/01/2025

First search term of the 2025 (and my parental leave) was “baby ate cat food”, so we’re off to a good start.

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Tiotal Football @tiotalfootball.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

The theory here is that some kind of basic property of “goal probability” is “option-ness” open.substack.com/pub/absolute...

open.substack.com

Options have Value

Zone-reads, pick 'n rolls, cut-backs

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Joris Bekkers @unravelsports.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

🏃‍♂️⏪ 🏃‍♀️ 𝐀𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐫 It's been over a year now since I was invited to present my 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲 metric to a small group of people at a SkillCorner event in Dallas, TX. I've finally put some effort into writing a blog on it! unravelsports.github.io/2024/12/12/p...

unravelsports.github.io

🔬 An Intuitive Measure for Pressing

For a long time I’ve had the aim to develop an intuitive measure for pressing that can be used by coaches, assistants and (data) analysts to identify and analyze pressing situations, compute advanced ...

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 09/12/2024

These are some of my favourite "tricks" that I've picked up over the last few years that have been particularly useful in soccer analytics.

centralwinger.com

Béziers, Bivariates, and Beyond

Some Tricks I Wish I Knew Earlier

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 27/11/2024

Enjoyed speaking with the folks at Analytics FC. I haven't spoken a whole lot online about my new role. It's exciting to be working across multiple sports. Learning a bunch.

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 25/11/2024

New post (!) – on xG, rebounds, conditional probability, and the need for more storytelling. There are still a lot of problems with how we use this model.

centralwinger.com

Penalties and Conditional Probability

Expected Goals still need storytelling.

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devinpleuler @centralwinger.com · 18/11/2024

New (first) post on the Central Winger substack. With thoughts on Player Similarity, problems with current approaches, and a path forward.

open.substack.com

Substituting Similarity

Summary statistics are problematic for comparing players

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James Yorke @jair1970.com · 15/11/2024

I hear people are harking for a former time 😎

PDO is an old ice hockey metric that causes extreme reactions in some people when used in soccer, as it smooshes together shot conversion and save % as a kinda ready reckoner "luck" metric and was used in the early days of soccer analytics. This chart shows that Chelsea and Liverpool are currently scoring "well", Palace and Everton less so

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