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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

They said capital allocation would contribute 4%-5% to EPS growth. I believe the most likely meaning of this is they will buyback 4%-5% of the stock in Q4 2026 & Q1 2027, more weighted to Q4. They are in blackout, so unless they put in a 10b-51 this will happen after earnings Long $CI

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

$CI had an analyst day yesterday. They reaffirmed 2026 earnings (on the last day of the quarter) and said 2027 will grow at least 10%. They are now at less than 8 times 2027 earnings

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Does he have any connection to Bollore? Why does he need to file?

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

The results speak for themselves. They have basically been reinvesting more than 100% of the profits back into the business and the growthisn't great considering that fact. Why are they investing capital for 10% pre-tax returns, assuming they are even including all the costs

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

They basically have a good business funding a shitty, capital intensive business where I'm certain that they are exagerating the returns because they don't show up in the numbers. This is a great business if run properly by someone that understands ROC

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

UMG gave transparency on their hurdle rates & I did not like it. They are putting out cash to famous artists with targets of 10% returns and upcoming artists at 20%. I'm sure their measurements are very generous. They are buying catalogues at 16X EBITDA while their stock trades well below that

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Do you think it's panic because things are going fine or do you think $UMG will bring in someone better to run the company

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Assuming we get past the fine and debt is reduced to where they want it through further monetization, what do you think the longer term plan is?

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Is the plan for Vivendi to just reduce leverage with whatever money they have been able to raise selling assets, receiving divdiends etc?

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Do you know what time the Bollore/Vivendi decision can be expected today?

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

The SK Hynix Nasdaq listing this week, may be a liquidity suck for the US market. Similar to how market struggled around the $GOOGL secondary and $SPCX IPO

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

Which holding do you think is the best investment to put new money into?

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

You are a half wit if you believe it's even possible

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

You are a half wit if you believe dogs can be trained to fuck you up the ass

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Calling you a half wit would be an insult to half wits

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

The rape victims were Israelis on October 7 and the hostages. This is Hamas hijacking the grief of Israelis.

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Go train a dog to fuck you in the ass and come back and tell me how it worked out

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Im telling you what you are in simple terms. You anti semetic garbage

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

He is a known Hamas supporter and has affiliations with other terrorirsts. Frankly, if someone make s a claim like that they lose all credibility. One of the oldest tricks is to tell a huge lie so that people think that some of it must be true

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

The NYT thinks by putting this in the Opinion section it absolves them from the damage they cause

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

This article recounts how Israel trained dogs to rape Palestinian men. If you believe this I have a bridge to sell you. I would laugh but shit like this causes anti semitism. There are a lot of stupid people who believe this nonsense

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

The risks are that somehow AI takes away the need for cybersecurity or sales issues severely worsen Long $CHKP

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

he shortfall was in the sales of physical firewalls. There is a world in which this is a hiccup . $FTNT had a fine quarter, pointing to the fact this was a sales force related problem. If the sales force shakeup works they could see double digit growth one day

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

$CHKP has been seeing double digit growth in it's subscriptions which make up the bulk of their sales, including this quarter. Their emerging products are growing over 30% and make up a third of subscriptions

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Realizing that he was not a salesperson, Gil hired a new CEO he believed would be better at sales. The shakeup of the sales force this past quarter did not go smoothly as salespeople were assigned to new roles & there was confusion

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Cyber security is a highly recurring business and customers rarely switch with extremely high retention rates. $CHKP always got great marks for it's products but it's founder was technology focused. There is a reason SaaS companies spend so much on sales

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

With the caveat that software is dead, I am once again back with my old friend $CHKP. $CHKP trades at an EV of $9.5 billion and is expected to produce $1.25 billion in cash this year. At the current price they would repurchase nearly 15% of the float over the next 12 months

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

I originally bought ALHG when it was at a huge discount. the discount is a lot smaller now so I'm more agnostic, although the liquidity in MMB doesn't sem great

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

Color me surprised that this happened before the Appeals Court decision. Happy to have been wrong

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

I would define success as an endd to the war, with a much weaker regime. One that will be much less of a threat to it's neighbors and that could hopefully be toppled by the Iranian people one day

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

So even if I end up being right, I will be wrong and you will be right?

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

We will know in a few weeks if this works or not

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

These people murdered 30,000 of their own people for protesting. This might be the only language they can understand. They are barbarians (and so is he)

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

He might be the person uniquely suited to deal with despotic, dictatorial regimes because he thinks like them

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

I don't think they will buy UMG before it's 100% certain they won't be forced to make a bid for Vivendi. They want UMG to stay low for now

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

but they also said ultimate expenses will be 20% less which is still a lot

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

In France are you allowed to just fire everyone and liquidate, get out of leases and other obligation? Wouldnt that cost be substantial

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Seems unfair to give everything a fair value and then ignore the $100 million a year in overhead

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

In the unlikely case the appeals court rules in favor of CIAM, what price do you think Bollore would be forced to pay if prices stay where they are today

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

the banks must be raking it on bond issuance this quarter

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Reposted by Tsachy Mishal

Helene Meisler @hmeisler.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Equity put/call ratio .80 yesterday

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

They are at 15 times forward earnings and have numerous options that would take the shares higher -they are underlevered and cash generative so they could buyback stock -they could sell SPOT shares and buyback stock - raise the dividend -list in the US Call me crazy but they want this

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Tsachy Mishal @capitalobserver.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

IMO this is the work of VB. As long as there is a chance he will have to buy VIV he doesn't want UMG higher

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