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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Will read this and reply with thoughts!

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Not part of a trend or anything… RIP Yen Carry.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

To me, a major part of the question is what incentives and scales (esp. polycentric) are countries using that are successful at a) designing, b) funding/financing (with minimal excess complexity and minimal corruption), and c) administering large projects and large scale services.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I feel it behooves us to study the question of regulatory burden though—that’s one place I think the Abundance crowd is on the right path.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I would surmise it’s likely not a good tool for recurring services (vs new development), nor can you simply *not tax* your way to good public services/goods. There’s a fine balance.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Absolutely! I wouldn’t suggest that it works for everything, but it can work *in part* for many things, particularly development projects where there is already a logical profit motive (energy, some transportation—Florida’s newest rail line seems to be a good example of the latter).

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It allows localities to determine and calibrate cost of living and effective taxation on goods and services while avoiding panoramic, centralized systems that can become distorted, more easily manipulated, and harder to correct. There’s also less money forcibly being circulated through one point.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Side note: On the individual level at societal scale, this is also why I’m in favor of tax prebates (in a sound money environment, with a VAT-driven tax system) over UBI.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It also allows (doesn’t guarantee or require) the tax incentives to come from a combination of municipal/county, state, and/or federal taxes, allowing for more localized targeting and avoiding the waterfall problem of top-down funding. Polycentrism at its finest!

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The only reporting is then whether the project is actually being pursued and completed rather than, additionally, where the money is, where it’s going, justifying each transaction and actor, tax reporting status of those transactions, etc, etc.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This helps incentivize firms that are *already* net profitable to overcome the up-front cost to develop the network that will present the later time preference gains without as many points of capture or corruption.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

By simply not taxing that money, it allows competitive interested parties to compete by seeking the most cost-efficient solution (when and where there is actually free market competition). They’re not getting money people can take a haircut or slice of, they’re just *not* being taxed that money.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Flip it around, though, and you can avoid much of that bottlenecking in funding throughput. Rather than directed funding (taxing to spend X), tax incentives (not taxing at a cost of X) can help fund certain projects more effectively.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

(Not to mention the potential for politically-motivated selection of contractors, lobbying, earmarks, pork barreling, etc.) Stack all this up, and I think you end up with the same observable obstacles to those big (sometimes labeled alongside state capacity) projects.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Someone else in your replies made a smart point about centralized financing flowing out and down towards the actual contractor/implementor “on the ground.” A good deal of that complexity stems from formalized / legal incentive structures and requirements for government funding financing.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The observable effect is the same: Too many outside interests looking to gain unfair market advantage, which then either cripples the economic viability of the project, or requires so much guaranteed funding (even at a loss) that the network effects have time to grow. But you may still get capture.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I’m not certain it’s about complexity *inherent* in second order economic value chains—often, those are where the demand kicks in to help fund the initial project and make it viable. I think the consequence of excessive regulation (emphasis on excessive) creates multiple points of potential capture.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Oh, nothing. Just our debt getting more expensive, feeding into fiscal dominance. Not like the U.S. economy, all our government programs, and highly financialized economy are dependent on selling our debt under the assumption it’s risk-free and has stable long-term yields.

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Reposted by Cameron Vaské

CNN @cnn.com · 04/10/2026

Russian authorities are responding to an incident in which a suspected dangerous infection was released as a result of a laboratory accident in Siberia and a researcher died. cnn.it/4i2BCfj

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Ah, yeah, no. All that profit is on paper and illiquid—subject to devaluation. Plenty is being made, but not all of it is permanent. Someone is going to be left holding the bag. Many someones—not just taxpayers.

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Reposted by Cameron Vaské

Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

All of this is leading to one massive flashing sign, which is one reason the bond vigilantes in the U.S. are jacking up the yields on U.S. treasuries: The Fed is going to have to print. A lot.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

All of this is leading to one massive flashing sign, which is one reason the bond vigilantes in the U.S. are jacking up the yields on U.S. treasuries: The Fed is going to have to print. A lot.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

More on all of that: www.zerohedge.com/economics/ra...

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The U.K.’s about to go over a government funding cliff. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank likely can’t bail out both France and Germany, and France is rioting over raising the retirement age (again) and won’t accept higher taxes to balance its budget.

theguardian.com

Global bond sell-off intensifies, as UK long-term borrowing costs pass 6%

Fears that US deficit is unsustainable drive yields on Treasury bills and UK gilts to multi-decade highs

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

And all of this is happening while France, Germany, UK, Spain, Japan, Italy, and U.S. bonds jump to 20+ year highs. Here’s ZeroHedge from the *beginning* of last month.

zerohedge.com

From 'Conflict' To 'Crowding Out', Global Bond Yields Soar To 2008 Highs

...the selloff is about more than Fed policy.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Pick your spark. My proverbial money is that the fire’s coming, probably before 2027.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Could be private credit redemptions and bankruptcies. Could be margin calls in the S&P 500 for leveraged buying. Could be commercial real estate collapse. Could be regional banks taking on defaults from commercial real estate or other loans and consumer credit. Could be yen carry trade collapse.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

So, my prediction is that the four to six different potential liquidity stress events all kick off when one of them gets particularly acute. Could be AI circular financing breaks down. Could be cash flow strain on businesses from supply chain price shocks.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

So they roll the fund over into a new fund and let investors opt in so it never gets marked to market. But liquidity dries up, they go get bank loans, the banks put it up in collateralized loan obligations, and all the while the leverage stack keeps growing. Until it doesn’t.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Annnnd private credit is *also* in on actual housing as mortgage rates for that skyrocket… They’re in mid-sized SaaS companies working at 6-8x EBIDTA, leveraged out the ass and on bad PIK loans (paying interest in more debt). Paper values of the PC fund look fine… until it gets marked to market.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

So a municipal budget may *look* fine on paper at a glance, but if the city isn’t doing smart accounting and tracking for where their money is actually coming from, they’re screwed. NYC will get hit even harder as major corporations leaving NYC drop the building occupancy rate and property value.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Cities base their anticipated budget partly on last year’s property valuations (and therefore anticipated future taxes), but estimates of those valuations often lag 2-4 years, and only get perfectly clear valuations when marked to market.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This is largely because the preponderance of mortgage loans were taken out 2020-2022, last ~5 years before needing refinancing (with potential for a year extension). We’re hitting the first of those refinancing dates now.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

That in turn wrecks most cities’ property tax income. Cities that didn’t plan for the decline in value and uptick in interest rates (looking at you, New York) are going to be realllllly indebted and/or unable to fund their own budgets.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

And we’re about to hit the maturity wall on a bunch of commercial real estate mortgages, which will hit major office spaces and other downtowns very hard.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

You’ve also got banks issuing NAV loans to some private credit funds, then collectivizing those loans into Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and issuing those to investors in tranches. (Sound familiar?)

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Oh, no. Not household credit, though we know that’s bad. I mean shadow banking. Massive redemptions requests and gates at nearly every major private credit fund the last two quarters. Apollo in particular seems troubled. Heavily cross-invested in across housing, insurance, banks, and AI financing.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Private credit reporting comes out this month, the end of the quarter. Here we go.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Yup. We got here from massive deficits from driving bond rates and fed rates ever higher. Because of fiat currency and centalized monetary policy. We need sound money.

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Reposted by Cameron Vaské

wfrost @wfrost.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Either AI screwed up here, or they didn’t use AI to check it. Either way, top-shelf irony.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Good morning. US bond yields continue to spike to highs not seen since 2007. That’s the interest on US debt getting more expensive. Interest is already the 2nd highest spending category of the budget. You pay that in taxes and again in inflation when we print to pay the rest. Have a good day.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

No, we could just actually address the fact that we don’t have to pick between infinite indebtedness due to overspending and infinite indebtedness due to tax cuts for those that need it less.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

When we expand the money supply faster than the economy grows (which is almost always for decades), we create inflation. That destroys the value of your wages and savings. That creates wealth and income inequality. That helps create credit bubbles. We need sound money.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Here comes the lobbying for regulatory capture.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

How are you going to pay for it without printing money, @abdulelsayed.bsky.social?

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” — Mark Twain

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The result of these Cantillon effects is that, without anybody doing anything for any other motive other than normal, everyday economic activity (good or evil) we systematically and structurally make the rich richer and the poor poorer relative to each other—even as a rising tide lifts all boats.

thecommonwealthperspective.substack.com

Cantillon's Ghost Would Like a Word With You About Wealth Inequality

The modern-day debate around wealth inequality is missing a core cause of wealth concentration: the creation of new money.

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Cameron Vaské @cameronvaske.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

We’ll all be looking back favorably on 2016 in a few months. Stay curious and be kind, y’all.

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