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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

"In the week ending October 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 197,000 to 199,000." Slightly above consensus.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

7.61% 30-year fixed mortgage www.mortgagenewsdaily.com.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

September Heavy Truck Sales 396 thousand SAAR, up 2% YoY

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

September Vehicle Sales 15.98 million SAAR, down 3.6% YoY Below forecast of 16.6 million.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The economy has only added 496 thousand jobs over the last year.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Unemployment Claims: "In the week ending September 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 197,000 to 198,000."

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

30-year fixed at 7.60% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Freddie Mac HPI. 30 largest price declines ...

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago." Down 14% YoY!

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Daily pain for mortgage rates ... 7.58% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

7.5% 30 Year fixed. Ouch! www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

30-Year fixed mortgage rates at 7.49%. Other than the brief surge in 2023, this is the highest since 2000.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Unemployment Claims: "In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 196,000 to 198,000." Lower than expected.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

30-year mortgage rate at 7.26% highest since May 2024 (I think) www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago." Weak demand.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

30-year mortgage rates at 7.19% will impact closings in 30 to 60 days. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Gasoline $4.46 per gallon, National average (war peak was $4.56). Getting close (diesel at record high). www.gasbuddy.com/charts

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

"In the week ending September 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 196,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 206,000." Lower than expected

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Diesel at record prices www.eia.gov/petroleum/ga... that will spill through to other prices.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Mortgage rates moved higher to end the day 7.24% 30-year fixed www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

30-year rates down slightly www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Builder Sentiment Falls on Higher Interest Rates and Costs www.nahb.org/news-and-eco... Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points to 32 in September, according to the NAHB Below consensus

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

National Average Gasoline = $4.35, war peak was $4.56 www.gasbuddy.com/charts

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

30-year mortgage rates 7.22% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

WTI $106 per barrel. Getting close to war highs www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

7.17% 30-year fixed mortgage www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

30 year fixed rates at 7.08% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

7%! Early estimate of 30 year fixed rates www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The key existing home sales graph ... months-of-supply!

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) now at 286.6 million barrels and falling steadily (lowest since 1982)

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Unemployment Claims: "In the week ending September 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 206,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level." At consensus.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

"The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) in August was 208.2, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to August 2025." www.coxautoinc.com/insights/man...

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Slight bounce back in participation rate, still down 0.7 percentage points YoY (mostly due to boomers retiring).

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent" Previous 2 months revised up. Well above consensus.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Unemployment Claims: "In the week ending August 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 206,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 203,000 to 204,000." At expectations. Still low.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Mortgage Rates Approaching 7% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mort...

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent lower than the same week one year ago." Weak demand, down year-over-year.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Mortgage rates highest this year www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rat...

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

30 Cities with the largest price declines.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Unemployment Claims: "In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 203,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 206,000 to 207,000." Slightly below expectations.

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent lower than the same week one year ago." Down YoY. Remains very weak.

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