The Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker reports the federal government’s daily cash operations, including daily spending, receipts, and deficits.

Estimate changes in tax revenue by selecting from a wide range of different tariff options.

The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through July 2025.

PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected c...

We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually f...

We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually f...

The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through June 2025.

Penn Wharton Budget Model’s (PWBM) Certificate for Policy Professionals is geared toward congressional staffers and other public policy professionals who work in the Washington, DC area. The program w...

It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP, the capital stock, and labor supply, simply due to scale effects. But deportation can also reduce per-capita measu...

We estimate the Senate-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.1 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.5 trillion. GDP falls b...

If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 21.9 percent in 30 years. GDP remains mostly flat, and wag...

We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years. GDP rises slightly, as labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net, but ...

If spending and tax changes in Reconciliation are made permanent, federal debt increases by 11.1 percent in 10 years and 24.3 percent in 30 years. GDP remains flat and wages fall by 0.5 percent. Dynam...

We estimate the House reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Even so, GDP rises in the short and long term, as precautionary increases in labor supply and savin...

Under current law, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire at the end of 2025, raising personal income tax rates back to 2017 levels. Some lawmakers propose extending the TCJA but with highe...

Our previous analysis demonstrated that the Trump Administration's major tax proposals would require expiration if combined with the FY2025 House budget reconciliation. This brief considers several op...